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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 230731
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
231 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE STREAMS NORTH THIS MORNING. A WARMING
TREND TODAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN
TONIGHT. WINDY AND WARM MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SOME SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW
RESULTING IN TEMPS PLATEAUING AND IN SOME CASES EVEN COMING UP A
DEGREE OR TWO. READINGS COMMONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ARE A
FAR CRY FROM 24 HRS AGO WHERE WE HAD MID TO LOW TEENS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST WEAK WAVE EXITING OUR NE
COUNTIES WHILE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM OHIO.
WITH H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FROM CURRENTLY
240DEG...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER INTENSIFYING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE ABOUT 8-10F ABOVE AVERAGE. 

A DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON MORNING. AS
THE LOW MOVES UP THE MS VALLEY IT WILL GATHER COPIOUS GULF
MOISTURE THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT. STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IN THE FORM OF A
60+ KT H85 JET...WILL SET UP DOWNSLOPING FROM THE RIDGES AND
COULD DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BY 03Z
MON...HOWEVER...RAINSHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THE LOW PIVOTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THE
STOUT H85 JET PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES BETWEEN
00-06Z...THE BL SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALOFT. EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE...BUT WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE. 

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SRLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER SERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH WARM
FRONT RAIN. GUSTY SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO THEN PERSIST INTO MON.
TAX

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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