Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Pittsburgh, PA banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180641
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES PERSIST AS THE TAIL VORT PASSES
EAST EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS. AS THE AXIS PASSES...LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER FROM WRLY TO NWRLY ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
PENETRATION OF LAKE MOISTURE INTO OUR NRN ZONES...EVEN AS THE SFC
WINDS REMAIN LARGELY OUT OF THE WEST. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL BE
SLOWLY SHUNTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
THIS MORNING...SO AM EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
PITTSBURGH METRO AREA TO CEASE. COLDEST H85 TEMPS ARE BEING
REALIZED NOW THROUGH ABOUT 12Z PER THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...AND
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVERLAPS THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. EXPECTING
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH 12Z...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED. 

LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE...SATURATING AND DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY...LAYER
WILL REMAIN OVER OUR NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA TODAY WITH CHANCES OF SNOW
SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT. THIS AFTERNOON HI-RES MODELS KEEP
LAKE EFFECT SNOW PRODUCTION ACTIVE DESPITE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF THE MID-LEVELS.
WITH THIS IN MIND...AM EXPECTING SPATIAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO
DWINDLE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MID-MORNING THOUGH THE EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVER-PRESENT...BUT
INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION. WITH LACK
OF SUNSHINE AND NO REAL CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS TO SPEAK OF...HIGH TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH THE
FREEZING MARK. WINDS COULD MAKE IT FEEL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COLDER.
TAX

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY FRIDAY AS
SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY WITH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH FOR
LIGHT SNOW. BULK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PD IS PROGGED TO FEATURE REDVLPMNT OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVR THE CONUS AS A TROF DIGS OVR THE PLNS AND
DEEPENS EWD. INITIAL SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE UPR OH REGION ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE AS WARM ADVCTN INTENSIFIES ON THE ERN FLANK
OF THAT SYSTEM. LATE PD POP TRENDS WL BE DEPENDANT ON PLACEMENT
AND PROGRESS OF THE MID/UPR LOW CNTR...VERY QNABLE GIVEN THE
CUTOFF CURRENTLY FORECAST BY MODEL WORLD. IN GENL...WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENL MVFR...AND PERIODIC IFR FOR NRN PORTS...CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TAF PD AS STRATOCU BLANKET IS MAINTAINED OVR THE UPR OH REGION
VIA COLD ADVCTN AT THE TOP OF THE BNDRY LYR. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR TONIGHT WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...
PARTICULARLY AT NORTHERN PORTS. 


OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL BNDRY LYR FLOW BACKS ON SATURDAY
IN ADVN OF LOW PRES. THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTIATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GENL RESTRICTIONS BY SATURDAY NGT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy