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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301210
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
810 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING STRATOCU BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT ACRS THE AREA
THRU THIS MRNG. SOME DCR IN CLDS IS EXPD LTR THIS AFTN AS WK
SBSDNC INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES. 

CLDS WL BEGIN TO INCR AGAIN OVRNGT AHD OF THE NXT APCHG SHRTWV.
TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL BLO SEASONAL AVGS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING A RATHER HISTORICALLY DEEP H500 
TROUGH/UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH SATURDAY.  12Z GEFS/NAEFS 
ENSEMBLES SHOW STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS 
BELOW NORMAL IN THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY.  INTERESTINGLY...THE 
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PREVENTING MUCH OF A SNOW 
IMPACT FOR THE CWA.

H500 UPPER LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DIP FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES 
AT 12Z FRIDAY TO THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SATURDAY.  CERTAINLY ENOUGH 
MOISTURE AND LIFT PROVIDED BY THE LOW FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION 
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT IT STILL APPEARS 
THAT THE SYSTEM BECOMES SO WRAPPED UP THAT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR 
WILL DIP SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE RELATIVELY WARMER AIR WRAPS AROUND 
AND SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE 
SURFACE.  STILL FORESEE SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN FOR MOST AREAS 
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  THE RIDGES IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA 
CORNER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GOING TO ALL SNOW AND PERHAPS PICKING 
UP A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES 
FROM H925 ON DOWN LOOK TOO WARM FOR ACCUMULATION.

ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND 
MOVES OFFSHORE...FEEDING A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER WELL OFF TO OUR 
EAST.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL TURN BACK TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING.  
COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO COLLAPSE IN FROM THE NORTH AS LOW 
LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY...BUT BY THEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY 
BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE.  POPS DROP OFF TO CHANCE BY AFTERNOON.  
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...ENDING BEFORE 
12Z SUNDAY.  BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A SIGNIFICANT 
CONCERN.  DRY WEATHER AND SOME SUNSHINE RETURN FOR SUNDAY.

DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...BLENDING IN THE MOST 
RECENT MOS GUIDANCE.  VALUES WILL RUN SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.  CL

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS BASED ON GEFS/ECENS MEANS.
A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL BY TUESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SHALLOW TROUGH IS
PROJECTED FOR A MID WEEK...WITH PROMISE OF AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL STRATOCU BLANKET WL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST PORTS THIS
MRNG WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR...BUT IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED
THIS AFTN AS COLD ADVCTN CEASES AND AS SBSDNC INCRS UNDR A SHRTWV RIDGE.

LGT SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SW AND S LATE TNGT AS UPSTREAM SHRTWV
ADVNS...BUT GENL CONDITION DETERIORATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
THAT SYSTEM UNTIL AFTR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES SHUNTS A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH REGION. ENSUING
UPSLOPING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN SHWR AND STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15





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