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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170819
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
419 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH 
THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES...BUT DON'T EXPECT MUCH THANKS TO THE
DRIER AIR ABOVE THE COLD AIR STRATOCU WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS ALMOST
NON-EXISTENT...AS ALL OF THE ENERGY IS BEING SHEARED EASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RIGHT
BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT MOST OF THIS IS OVER OHIO. ANY
SPRINKLES THAT DO FALL THIS MORNING WILL END QUICKLY.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TODAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE DRIER...SO
EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN AFTER MORNING CLOUDS. WITH THIS
PATTERN...HIGHS WILL BE REACHED IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY FALL. WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MIXING HEIGHTS RISE AND TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST WITH A MIX
OF MOS AND SREF...WHICH ARE WILL AVERAGE BELOW THE SEASONAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND STRUGGLE TO FIND A CONSISTENT RUN TO
RUN SOLUTION FOR ENERGY THAT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM. WEEKEND LOOKS MAIN DRY...WITH A BRIEF
WARM UP ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STARTING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE...BUT LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN
UNTIL FROPA CAN MIX DOWN WINDS ALOFT. SAID COLD FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING ACROSS THIS MORNING...WITH TIMING AROUND 08Z AT FKL/DUJ...10Z
AT PIT...AND BY 12Z AT MGW. MAINLY FORESEE MVFR CIGS WITH LITTLE
PRECIPIATION ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR AT
FKL/DUJ...CLOSER TO MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE AND BETTER SUPPORT. WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE W AND NW ONCE FROPA OCCURS...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MVFR SC/CU DECK WILL LINGER INTO AFTERNOON
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TO VFR LATER IN THE DAY. WIND GUSTS WILL
SLOWLY TAPER THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING AROUND 00Z AREAWIDE.


.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PIT FRIDAY AS A SYSTEM MAY
TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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