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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170553
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
153 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES THROUGH THE MORNING.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. WITH CURRENT RADAR AND SAT
TRENDS...REMOVED POPS EVERYWHERE AND JUST WENT WITH SPRINKLES
OVERNIGHT. 

FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER DAWN. WILL KEEP IN THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES...BUT DON'T EXPECT MUCH THANKS TO THE DRIER
AIR ABOVE THE COLD AIR STRATOCU. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT...AS ALL OF THE ENERGY IS BEING
SHEARED EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT MOST OF THIS HAS
BEEN MOVED WESTWARD INTO OHIO. ANY SPRINKLES THAT DO FALL THIS
MORNING IN THE SOUTH WILL END QUICKLY.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TODAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE DRIER SO
EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN AFTER MORNING CLOUDS. WITH THIS
PATTERN...WOULD EXPECT HIGHS TO BE REACHED IN THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY FALL. WINDS WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...AS MIXING HEIGHTS RISE AND TAP INTO
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST WITH A MIX
OF MOS AND SREF...WHICH ARE WILL AVERAGE BELOW THE SEASONAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND STRUGGLE TO FIND A CONSISTENT RUN TO
RUN SOLUTION FOR ENERGY THAT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM. WEEKEND LOOKS MAIN DRY...WITH A BRIEF
WARM UP ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STARTING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE...BUT LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN
UNTIL FROPA CAN MIX DOWN WINDS ALOFT. SAID COLD FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING ACROSS THIS MORNING...WITH TIMING AROUND 08Z AT FKL/DUJ...10Z
AT PIT...AND BY 12Z AT MGW. MAINLY FORESEE MVFR CIGS WITH LITTLE
PRECIPIATION ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR AT
FKL/DUJ...CLOSER TO MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE AND BETTER SUPPORT. WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE W AND NW ONCE FROPA OCCURS...WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MVFR SC/CU DECK WILL LINGER INTO AFTERNOON
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TO VFR LATER IN THE DAY. WIND GUSTS WILL
SLOWLY TAPER THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING AROUND 00Z AREAWIDE.


.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PIT FRIDAY AS A SYSTEM MAY
TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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