Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Pittsburgh, PA banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221859
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
259 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE A WARMING TREND AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT STRATUS CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE SHEAR BELOW THE STUBBORN 4 KFT INVERSION LEVEL.
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING BELOW THIS LEVEL...MOISTURE
FROM LAKES ERIE AND HURON CONTINUES TO COME OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...SHEAR BELOW THE INVERSION LEVEL WILL
INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY
AND EVENTUALLY VERY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE RIDGES BY 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A RAPIDLY DRYING BOUNDARY
LAYER AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA CONCURRENT WITH CLEARING
AND SUBSIDENCE. 

WITH VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MIXING AND WEAK OVERNIGHT
FLOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THOSE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER THAT CLEAR FIRST AND ARE THE MOST ISOLATED AMONGST
THE TERRAIN. IN THESE AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEYS AMONGST
THE RIDGES...FROST WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AND WIDESPREAD. AS
SUCH...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
GARRETT/PRESTON/TUCKER/EASTERN WESTMORELAND/EASTERN FAYETTE
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID 30S WILL BE
QUITE COMMON IN THESE LOCATIONS...AND GIVEN THE REGIME...THE
COLDEST SPOTS WILL LIKELY DROP NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN
THAT FROST IS LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...YET SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED...A FROST ADVISORY SEEMS
LIKE A MORE PRUDENT HEADLINE THAN A FREEZING WARNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE INTO THE SHORT TERM AS MID-
LEVEL HEIGHT VALUES SOAR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME MOISTURE
ATTEMPTS TO CREEP UP THE APPALACHIANS ROUGHLY CENTERED AROUND
THURSDAY...HOWEVER A LACK OF FORCING AND NEARBY SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
KEEP IT FROM BEING A LARGE PLAYER IN THE FORECAST. AS SUCH...DRY
CONDITIONS WERE FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING
ABOVE NORMAL LARGELY INTO THE MID 70S. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS QUIET AS CAN BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION. A SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REIGN SUPREME
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WARM LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT SOME IFR
CIGS AT FKL/DUJ...BUT DO NOT THINK THESE LOWER CIGS WILL MAKE IT
INTO OTHER TERMINALS. MAY BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH
VCSH AT FKL/DUJ...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE THIS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNRISE. AS WINDS START TO BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE...CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH RISE IN HEIGHT. ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVNG IN FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET...CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041.

&&

$$






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy