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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 262126
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
426 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DRY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE HI
RES MODELS HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL BEFORE RAMPING UP
AGAIN AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS AND FALLS INTO THE -15 TO -20
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WINDOW IS RATHER SMALL FOR ALL BUT THE
RIDGES BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE. THUS...SNOWFALL FORECAST
CHANGES WERE RATHER MINIMAL...ONLY ADDING ABOUT AN INCH TO THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF PA/WV/MD...AND GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR JUST BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS WERE TO SCATTER OUT
EARLY...TEMPERATURES COULD FALL OFF MUCH MORE WITH THE SNOWPACK
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. EVEN IF TEMPS WERE TO FALL OFF MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE LOW WINDS EXPECTED WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT. 

COLD ADVECTION AND SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE HELP OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM
ADVECTION ENSUES. 

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH ON SUNDAY. AS OF NOW...THE
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO BRING A MIX TO
AREAS SOUTH OF I 80...WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTH. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FEATURE
IN THE HWO AS SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND WARM AIR ALOFT. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 
A PATTERN CHANGE AND RELATIVE WARM UP THEN SETS UP THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. SHORTWAVES ARE
PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WAVE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE
OVERDONE IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS A
DECENT SNOWPACK REMAINS.

ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE START TO THE
FORECAST...THOUGH MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATEST GFS TO WARM SOME
TEMPS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS FOR PRECIP TYPE BASED ON GFS CRITICAL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS AS CLOUDS INCREASE
WITH A COUPLE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. ANY SNOW FROM A WAVE
CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY
SHOULD SPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
AREA PORTS...AND THIS WAS ALREADY AFFECTING FKL THIS MORNING.
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALSO THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DECREASE AS SUPPORT EXITS TONIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








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