Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Pittsburgh, PA banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 250302
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1002 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES EAST OF
PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH HAVE CONTINUED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT THESE VALUES REMAIN BELOW THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 45 MPH. GUSTS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN DURING THE EVENING. CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...AND WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...BUT MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A PASSING
SHOWER. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL YIELD MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR
WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH
BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF
WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO
NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN
OR SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS
SYSTEM AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET
CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY COASTAL LOW EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE
RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL 
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE 
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC 
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN 
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT 
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO 
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT. 
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD OVRNGT S OF I 80...THOUGH SC CIGS ARE
EXPD TO DVLP IN COLD ADVCTN. CU RULE/MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE
SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE. PORTS N OF I 80 WL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS
DVLPG...THOUGH AN INCR TO VFR IS EXPD THRU THE DAY TUE AS MXG
LIFTS THE CIG HGT. OCNL WSW WND GUSTS ARND 20 KT WL RMN PSBL THRU
TUE WITH A SLOWLY WKNG PRES GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 
COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC
RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041.

&&

$$






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy