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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302130 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
530 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 
UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
530PM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WITH COOL AIR ALOFT...STRATOCU IS EXPD TO CONT INTO THE
EVE...THOUGH THESE SHOULD DCR SOME ERLY THIS EVE AS WK HIGH PRES
BLDS IN. SOME ISOLD LGT SHWRS N-E OF PIT SHOULD DSPT AS WELL WITH
THE BLDG HIGH. CLDS WL INCR AGAIN LTR TNGT AHD OF THE NXT ADVNG
SHRTWV. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEPENING UPR TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WL ADVN ACRS THE GT 
LKS FRI WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS FRI. THE DEEP UPR TROF WL RMN ACRS
THE ERN CONUS SAT WITH A MOISTURE SWATH AND OMEGA ACRS MUCH OF THE
RGN...KEEPING CHCS FOR PCPN. COLDER AIR IS EXPD TO BEGIN TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THE INITIAL SFC LOW AS N-NE FLOW DVLPS FRI NGT INTO SAT.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A LTL SNW TO MIX IN WITH RAIN SHWRS AT TIMES SAT
MRNG...BUT A WRM BNDRY LYR SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL AND PREVENT
ANY ACCUMS OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES SE OF PIT. IN THE RIDGES...EXP A
GRDL CHG OVR TO MAINLY SNW SAT IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENLY
EXP A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNW IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN GRASSY
AREAS BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DMNSH SAT NGT. THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT IS LTD WITH N-NE FLOW...AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO DMNSH BY
THE TIME NW UPSLOPE FLOW DVLPS.

BLDG HIGH PRES AND DRY WEA IS PROGGED FOR SUN. TEMPS SHOULD AVG
BLO SEASONAL LVLS THRU THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS BASED ON GEFS/ECENS MEANS.
A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL BY TUESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SHALLOW TROUGH IS
PROJECTED FOR A MID WEEK...WITH PROMISE OF AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU BLANKET WL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE UPR OH TERMINALS INTO THIS 
EVE...BUT GENL VFR/HIGH END MVFR WL BE PREDOMINATE.  OTHRWISE...LGT 
SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SW AND S LATE TNGT AS UPSTREAM SHRTWV 
ADVNS...BUT GENL CONDITION DETERIORATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH 
THAT SYSTEM UNTIL WELL AFTR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY EVE AS DEEPENING LOW 
PRES SHUNTS A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH REGION. ENSUING 
UPSLOPING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN SHWR AND STRATOCU POTENTIAL 
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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