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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290028
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
828 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VERY COLD COLUMN CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS WANING...WHICH EVEN WITH
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IS LEADING TO A RAPID DECIMATION OF THE
CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS ANY REMAINING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
OUR NORTHWEST DEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO THE FACT THAT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST...WINDS SHOULD STAY
ABOVE CALM ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURE
FALLS ON BOTH A RADIATIVE AND ADVECTIVE BASIS SHOULD BE
IMPRESSIVE. FORECAST GUIDANCE ALL POINTS TOWARD RECORD LOWS
TONIGHT...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONCURRED WITH THIS. AS
SUCH...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
EXCEPT TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RECORD LOW IN
PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982.

ON TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH COLD ADVECTION
ALLOWING FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. FORCING WILL BE
LACKING...SO SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET UP TO ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIES



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER
IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST.
BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE
I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL 
WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP 
MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL 
AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING
EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND
EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS
CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER
AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU. 

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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