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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 041620
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1220 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE/WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS COMPLEX
WILL ALSO BE A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR...AND A FEW STORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH NO SHEAR/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. THUS...SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOST OF
THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AT
NIGHTFALL. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONTINGENT ON CLOUD COVER
AND COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY STAYED WITH A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS PA UNDER A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
AND WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. RELIEF FROM THE
QUITE WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...AS WELL AS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT ANY ONE STORM MAY IMPACT THE
PORTS...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE TS MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LITTLE MIXING. 
  
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL VFR WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG IS
ANTICIPATED EACH DAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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