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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240201 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
901 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
900 PM UPDATE... PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. JUST MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT POPS AND QPF. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
MODIFIED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SHRTWV AND SFC WRM FNT WL ADVN ACRS THE
OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN TNGT. AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE...UPR SPPRT...AND
LLVL JET IN PLACE CONT TO ALLOW FOR CAT POPS FOR RAIN. RAIN IS
EXPD TO END TAPER OFF OR END BEFORE DAWN AS THE SHRTWV AND SFC FNT
EXIT. TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY DROP AT PCPN ONSET...THEN BEGIN TO
RISE LT TNGT IN WRM ADVCTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT. 

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA. 

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT/SHORTWAVE COMBINATION WILL PUSH A LARGE RAIN SHIELD
ACROSS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIG/VIS WITH DROPS TO IFR
AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER RAIN. RAIN LIFTS OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH
MVFR LINGERING INTO MIDMORNING. VFR CIG/VIS FIGURED BY
MIDDAY...BUT THE STORY TOMORROW WILL BE THE WIND. S/SW WINDS WILL
GUST TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS AT LEAST TOMORROW...POSSIBLY
HIGHER. THIS WILL CREATE SOME SIGNFICANT CROSSWINDS ON E/W RUNWAYS.


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-
     012-021>023-041.

&&

$$






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