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Hydrologic Outlook
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000
FGUS71 KGYX 031905
ESFGYX

MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-007-009-013
-015-017-019-041915-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
300 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN... 
CENTRAL... AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE IS ABOVE NORMAL. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHERN 
LOCATIONS BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN CENTRAL AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

THIS IS THE SEVENTH IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC 
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON. THESE OUTLOOKS 
WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE END OF THE SNOW MELT 
SEASON...AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON A 
NUMBER OF FACTORS. 

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT CONTINUED TO DRAW ARCTIC AIR INTO THE 
REGION IS RELAXING SOMEWHAT AS WE ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 
NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. WHILE IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL BE 
SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS IT DOESN'T LOOK AS THOUGH 
WE WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD. TEMPERATURE HAVE MODERATED WITH HIGHS NOW 
GETTING INTO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH AND AROUND 40 OR SO IN THE 
MOUNTAINS. THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN 
PORTLAND... CONCORD... AND AUGUSTA ARE 48/51/47. THE WEATHER PATTERN 
WILL ALSO REMAIN ACTIVE. WE WILL SEE RAIN SOUTH AND MIXED 
PRECIPITATION NORTH SATURDAY AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF HEAVIER 
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY FORECAST CALLS FOR BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM LITTLE IF ANY NEAR THE COAST TO 3 TO 12 
INCHES IN SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. IN THE 
WINNIPESAUKEE... OSSIPEE LAKE... AND PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AREAS SNOW 
DEPTH RANGES FROM 12 TO 22 INCHES. FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTH TO 
THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW DEPTH RANGES 8 TO 16 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS 
UP TO 2 TO 4 FEET AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. PINKHAM NOTCH 
REPORTED 48 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT 7 AM THIS MORNING.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES LITTLE IF ANY NEAR THE COAST TO 2 TO 6 
INCHES IN SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. IN THE 
WINNIPESAUKEE... OSSIPEE LAKE... AND PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AREAS SNOW 
WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES. FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS 
NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 3 TO 
6 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS TO UP TO 12 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 
FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. 

...MAINE...

SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE COAST TO 6 TO 22 
INCHES FROM SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS TO THE FOOTHILLS. FROM THE 
MOUNTAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET 
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ANDOVER REPORTED 35 INCHES OF SNOW ON 
THE GROUND THIS MORNING AND PITTSTON FARM REPORTED 45 INCHES.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE 
COAST TO 3 TO 8 FROM SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE FOOTHILLS. 
FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT 
RANGES FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW WATER 
EQUIVALENT IS ABOVE NORMAL.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

THE LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL 
MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AND SOUTHERN 
NEW HAMPSHIRE. SOIL MOISTURE IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE. AS REPORTED BY 
THE USGS GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE BELOW NORMAL IN WESTERN MAINE AND 
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE IT IS EXPECTED THAT 
GROUNDWATER LEVELS WILL RECHARGE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER BASIN WERE 32 PERCENT 
FULL WHICH IS 0.6 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIRS IN THE KENNEBEC 
BASIN WERE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS SPRING.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE HAVE SEEN A 
DECREASE IN ICE COVER OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO AS HIGHER FLOWS AND 
MILDER TEMPERATURES HAVE WORKED TO THIN THE ICE OR WIPE IT OUT 
ALTOGETHER. ICE COVER REMAINS IN PLACE IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND 
THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF MAINE. HERE ICE COVER IS STILL 1 TO 2 
FEET THICK. THE COAST GUARD CUT ICE ON THE LOWER KENNEBEC LAST WEEK 
TO HELP MITIGATE ANY POTENTIAL ICE JAM ISSUES.

RIVER FLOWS ARE ABOVE NORMAL IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL 
MAINE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND MELTING SNOW THAT OCCURRED 
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO. 

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL 
DUE TO SNOWMELT IS ABOVE NORMAL. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS 
IS ABOVE NORMAL IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND IN THE 
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF MAINE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL 
PROCEED INTO THE MIDDLE OF APRIL WITH A DEEP AND WATER LADEN 
SNOWPACK IN PLACE. THE HEADWATERS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL 
LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AS WE PROCEED 
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. THE SNOWPACK IN THESE AREAS IN NOT YET 
RIPE AND CAN STILL ABSORB MORE WATER. IN SOUTHERN MAINE AND SOUTHERN 
NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE THE SNOWPACK IS RIPE... SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT 
WILL LIKELY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. THE FARTHER WE PROCEED 
INTO THE SPRING SEASON WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK THE GREATER THE RISK OF 
A RAPID WARMING ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN A QUICK SNOWMELT 
AND MAJOR FLOODING. 

MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW 
MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT 
FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM 
FRIDAY APRIL 18.

$$

TFH























































































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