000
FGUS71 KGYX 182320
ESFGYX
MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-007-009-
013-015-017-019-201915-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
700 PM EDT THU APR 19 2013

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 
MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IN WESTERN MAINE AND NEW 
HAMPSHIRE HAS PASSED FOR THE SEASON.

THIS IS THE SEVENTH IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC 
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON. THESE OUTLOOKS 
WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE END OF THE SNOW MELT 
SEASON...AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON A 
NUMBER OF FACTORS.


...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS THE BLOCKING PATTERN THAT HAD BEEN AFFECTING 
THE NORTHEAST HAS SLOWLY BROKEN DOWN. THIS HAS ALLOWED MILDER 
TEMPERATURES TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SNOWPACK HAS 
BEEN SLOWLY MELTING AND PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL. IN 
THE SHORT TERM MILDER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION BUT 
THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. RIVER 
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE AS THE REMAINING SNOWPACK MELTS 
AWAY AND MORE FREQUENT RAIN EVENTS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. 
THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST CALLS FOR 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE 8 TO 
14 DAY FORECAST CALLS FOR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION. 

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW IS NOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN NEW 
HAMPSHIRE. SNOW DEPTH OF UP TO 18 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS 
ARE ON THE GROUND ABOVE 1500 FEET IN THE UPPER PEMIGEWASSET AND SACO 
RIVER BASINS AND FROM MOUNT WASHINGTON NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. 
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THESE AREAS RANGES FROM 2 TO 8 INCHES. A 
SNOW SURVEY REPORT FROM TRANSCANADA NEAR MOOSE FALLS IN FAR NORTHERN 
NEW HAMPSHIRE ON APRIL 16 SHOWED 30 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 9.4 INCHES 
OF WATER EQUIVALENT AT AN ELEVATION OF 1950 FEET. A REPORT FROM THE 
CORPS OF ENGINEERS AT BREEZY POINT SHOWED A SNOW DEPTH OF 17 INCHES 
AND A WATER EQUIVALENT OF 7.6 INCHES AT AN ELEVATION OF 2500 FEET.

...MAINE...

SNOW IS NOW CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE WITH SNOW DEPTHS 
RANGING FROM 2 TO 15 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW WATER 
EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 2 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. 
SNOW SURVEYS DONE BY BROOKFIELD POWER ON APRIL 15 SHOWED 31 INCHES 
OF SNOW WITH 14.6 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT AT PARLIN POND AT AN 
ELEVATION OF 1700 FEET. AT SMILEY HILL 21 INCHES OF SNOW WAS 
REPORTED WITH 11.4 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT AT AN ELEVATION OF 
1600 FEET. SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS THE GROUND IS NOW BARE.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE INDICATORS ARE SHOWING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN AREAS 
WHERE ACTIVE SNOW IS STILL OCCURRING. THE LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT 
SEVERITY INDEX SHOWS NORMAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE AND NEW 
HAMPSHIRE. AS REPORTED BY THE USGS GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE MOSTLY 
NEAR NORMAL IN WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN WERE 43.4 PERCENT FULL 
WHICH IS 7.4 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIRS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN 
BASIN ARE 45.9 PERCENT FULL WHICH IS 0.9 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. 

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS SPRING.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ARE GENERALLY NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL IN NORTHERN 
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS. IN MAINE RIVER 
FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN SOUTHERN AREAS AND ABOVE NORMAL IN AREAS 
CLOSER TO ACTIVE SNOWMELT.

THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING HAS PASSED FOR THE SEASON.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL 
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS OF 
MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IN WESTERN MAINE AND NEW 
HAMPSHIRE HAS PASSED FOR THE SEASON.

WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER 
PATTERN RIVERS WILL BE RISING SLOWLY AS THE REMAINING SNOWPACK MELTS 
AWAY. 

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE HOWEVER THAT MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR 
FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD 
OF TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY 
OF FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM 
FRIDAY MAY 3.

$$

TFH