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Hydrologic Outlook
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000
FGUS71 KGYX 061310
ESFGYX
MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-005-007-
009-011-013-015-017-019-071315-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
810 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE SHORT TERM /NEXT 2 WEEKS/ FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN MAINE
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE IS NORMAL. THE LONGER TERM FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
ABOVE NORMAL. THE SHORT TERM /NEXT 2 WEEKS/ POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS NORMAL. THE LONGER TERM ICE JAM FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS IS THE FIFTH IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASONS. THESE
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE END OF THE SNOW
MELT SEASON... AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED A
NUMBER OF FACTORS.

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE HAVE SEEN SOME VERY COLD AIR OVER
THE PAST MONTH. CONCORD RECORDED THE SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY ON
RECORD SINCE 1867 AND PORTLAND RECORDED THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON
RECORD SINCE 1941. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS RELENTLESS COLD WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE JET STREAM LIFTS TO THE NORTH. A MORE
WEST TO EAST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WITH THE JET STREAM RETREATING TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT ONLY FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST
INDICATES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. THE 8 TO 14 DAY FORECAST INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW DEPTH ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE IS GENERALLY IN THE 1.5 TO 3 FOOT
RANGE. SNOW DEPTH IS A BIT LESS IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY ON
THE ORDER OF 12 TO 18 INCHES. LOCAL SNOW DEPTHS OF 4 FEET EXIST
ABOVE 2000 FEET IN ELEVATION. 

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE ACROSS NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 2000 FEET.

SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ARE ABOVE NORMAL IN SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT IS NEAR NORMAL

...WESTERN MAINE...

SNOW DEPTH IN WESTERN MAINE RANGES FROM 1.5 TO 4 FEET WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT GENERALLY RANGES FROM 5 TO 8 INCHES WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES. 

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE IT IS ABOVE NORMAL.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAPS INDICATE NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE SOIL MOISTURE IS ABOVE
NORMAL. 

THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX WHICH INDICATES LONGER TERM
MOISTURE CONDITIONS SHOWS NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE FOR NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN MAINE. FOR CENTRAL AND COASTAL LOCATIONS
THE PDSI IS UNUSUALLY MOIST TO VERY MOIST DUE TO THE FACT THAT
MORE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN IN THESE LOCATIONS OVER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS. 

THE USGS REPORTS THAT GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE MOSTLY IN THE NORMAL
RANGE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. RESERVOIRS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER
BASIN ARE 50.6 PERCENT FULL WHICH IS 12.9 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.
RESERVOIRS IN THE KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN ARE ALSO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MOOSEHEAD LAKE
WHICH IS JUST BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS ARE ICE COVERED. RECENT ICE MEASUREMENTS BY THE USGS
INDICATE THAT ICE IS GENERALLY 12 TO 24 INCHES THICK WITH 1 TO 2
FEET OF SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE. AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN PLACE ON
THE KENNEBEC RIVER IN THE VICINITY OF MADISON. WATER LEVELS HAVE
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THIS JAM AS THE COLD WEATHER AND
LACK OF RUNOFF HAVE SEEN RIVER FLOWS LOWER. THIS JAM WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND MAY POSE A RISK LATER IN THE SPRING.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE IS NORMAL IN THE
SHORT TERM /NEXT 2 WEEKS/ BUT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM. THIS
IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARM WEATHER EXPECTED. HOWEVER IN THE LONGER TERM WE WILL LIKELY BE
GOING INTO LATE MARCH WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK AND ICE COVER.
THE LATER INTO THE SPRING SEASON WE PROGRESS WITH A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWPACK THE GREATER THE CHANCE OF A RAPID WARM UP WITH RAIN.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR
FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A
PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE
SEVERITY OF FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM FRIDAY
MARCH 20.


$$

TFH



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