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Hydrologic Outlook
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000
FGUS71 KGYX 091241
ESFGYX
MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-005-007-
009-011-013-015-017-019-101245-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
741 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE IS BELOW
NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS IS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASONS. THESE
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE END OF THE
SNOW MELT SEASON... AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
BASED A NUMBER OF FACTORS.

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

AFTER A WARMER THAN NORMAL DECEMBER AND THE FIRST 5 DAYS OF
JANUARY TEMPERATURES HAVE TUMBLED. ARCTIC CHILL HAS NOW DESCENDED
OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INDICATES THE THE
POLAR JET MAY MOVE FARTHER TO THE NORTH WHICH WOULD CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6
TO 10 DAY FORECAST INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. THE 8 TO 14 DAY FORECAST INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 2 INCHES OR LESS NEAR THE COAST TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
IN THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS ON THE
GROUND WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE 1500
FEET IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE REPORTING AS MUCH AS 12 TO 18
INCHES. SNOW DEPTH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS GENERALLY 1 INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF LAKE
WINNIPESAUKEE TO THE COAST. IN THE REMAINDER OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

...WESTERN MAINE...

SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES SOUTH OF THE FOOTHILLS TO THE
COAST. SNOW DEPTH IN THE FOOTHILLS IS ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF
18 INCHES ARE BEING REPORTED AT ANDOVER AND EUSTIS. SNOW DEPTH IS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. SNOW DEPTH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR.

WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM FROM 1 INCH OR LESS NEAR THE COAST TO
1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MOUNTAINS SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
IS MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

DUE TO A ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN DECEMBER SOIL MOISTURE IS
MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX SHOWS
EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF MAINE AND VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE USGS REPORTS THAT
GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS DUE TO THE MILD WEATHER AND FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN
THAT OCCURRED IN DECEMBER ALLOWING FOR SOME GROUNDWATER RECHARGE.
RESERVOIRS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER BASIN ARE 76.8 PERCENT FULL
WHICH IS 17.5 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. RESERVOIRS IN THE KENNEBEC
RIVER BASIN ARE ALSO AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

UP UNTIL ABOUT 10 DAYS AGO ICE COVER WAS ALMOST NONEXISTENT ON
MANY RIVERS ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. THIS WAS DUE
TO THE MILD DECEMBER AND THE HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL RIVER FLOWS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER THE ARCTIC AIR
THAT HAS MOVED IN RECENTLY HAS CAUSED RIVERS AND STREAMS TO ICE
OVER RAPIDLY. THE ICE THICKNESS IS STILL LESS THAN WOULD NORMALLY
BE EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL. 

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
IS ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR. 

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM
SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF
TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY
OF FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM FRIDAY
JANUARY 23.


$$

TFH



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