000
FGUS71 KGYX 041747
ESFGYX
MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-007-009-
013-015-017-019-051915-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
145 PM EDT THU APR 4 2013

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW 
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE AND NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IN WESTERN MAINE AND NEW 
HAMPSHIRE HAS PASSED FOR THE SEASON.

THIS IS THE SIXTH IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC 
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON. THESE OUTLOOKS 
WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE END OF THE SNOW MELT 
SEASON...AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON A 
NUMBER OF FACTORS.


...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL LOW 
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN HAS TRAPPED COLD AIR OVER 
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION RESULTING IN COLDER THAN NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES. ANY STORMS THAT FORM AND DON'T PASS TO THE SOUTH OF 
NEW ENGLAND GENERALLY RESULT IN SNOW AND TEND TO MOVE SLOWLY. 
THE MEDIUM RANGE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL 
BREAK DOWN AS WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE SPRINGLIKE PATTERN. THE 
OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY 
FORECAST CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION. 

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY THE SNOW 
IS NOW GONE. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE 
SNOW IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW DEPTH HERE 
IS GENERALLY BELOW 10 INCHES. FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTH TO THE 
CANADIAN BORDER SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM LESS THAN 1 FOOT IN THE 
VALLEYS TO 1 TO 2.5 FEET IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW DEPTH IS 
ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 
INCHES. FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WATER 
EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS TO 4 TO 8 INCHES 
ABOVE 1500 FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE TIME 
OF YEAR.

...MAINE...

ALONG THE COAST SNOW IS GONE. FROM INTERIOR SOUTHERN MAINE TO THE 
FOOTHILLS SNOW DEPTH IS IN GENERAL LESS THAN 10 INCHES. EVEN HERE 
SNOW DEPTH IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO WOODED AREAS. FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO 
THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW DEPTH RANGES 1 TO 2.5 FEET. SNOW DEPTH IS 
ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT LEFT ALONG THE SOUTH 
COAST OF MAINE. FROM INTERIOR SOUTHERN MAIN TO THE FOOTHILLS SNOW 
WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES. FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO 
THE CANADIAN BORDER WATER EQUIVALENT INCREASES RAPIDLY AND RANGES 
FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES. WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO OVER 12 INCHES. 
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR TO 
BELOW NORMAL SOUTH OF THE FOOTHILLS.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE INDICATORS ARE SHOWING ABOUT NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE 
CONDITIONS IN WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE LONG TERM PALMER 
DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX SHOWS NORMAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE 
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. AS REPORTED BY THE USGS GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE 
MOSTLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN WERE 36 PERCENT FULL 
WHICH IS 3 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIRS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN 
BASIN ARE 42.6 PERCENT FULL WHICH IS ABOUT 8 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. 

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS SPRING.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ARE GENERALLY NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME 
OF YEAR. 

THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING HAS PASSED FOR THE SEASON.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL 
IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE 
MOUNTAINS OF MAINE. ELSEWHERE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL. WITH 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND A LARGE SNOWPACK STILL EXITING IN THE MOUNTAINS WE 
EXPECT RIVERS FLOWS TO INCREASE MARKEDLY OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. IT 
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE HOWEVER THAT MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM 
SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF 
TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF 
FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM 
FRIDAY APRIL 19.

$$

TFH