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Hydrologic Outlook
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000
FGUS71 KGYX 222042
ESFGYX
MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-005-007-
009-011-013-015-017-019-242045-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
342 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE IS BELOW
NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS IS THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASONS. THESE
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE END OF THE SNOW
MELT SEASON... AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED A
NUMBER OF FACTORS.

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

AFTER A WARMER THAN NORMAL DECEMBER AND THE FIRST 5 DAYS OF
JANUARY TEMPERATURES HAVE TUMBLED. ARCTIC CHILL HAS NOW DESCENDED
OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE RESULTING IN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THIS PATTERN OF RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE
EAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. THE OFFICIAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST INDICATES BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE PRECIPITATION. THE 8 TO 14 DAY
FORECAST INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 1 INCH OR LESS NEAR THE COAST TO 2 TO 5
INCHES IN THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. FROM THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS ON THE
GROUND WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 18 INCHES. SNOW DEPTH
IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS GENERALLY 1 INCH OR LESS SOUTH OF LAKE
WINNIPESAUKEE TO THE COAST. IN THE REMAINDER OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

...WESTERN MAINE...

ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE SNOW DEPTH IS 2 INCHES OR LESS
WITH BARE GROUND SHOWING IN SOME AREAS. IN THE INTERIOR SNOW
DEPTH RANGES FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES SOUTH OF THE FOOTHILLS. SNOW
DEPTH IN THE FOOTHILLS IS ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. IN THE
MOUNTAINS SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 18 INCHES.

WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM FROM 1 INCH OR LESS NEAR THE COAST
TO 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. IN THE MOUNTAINS SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

DUE TO A ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN DECEMBER SOIL MOISTURE IS
MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX SHOWS
EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF MAINE AND VERY MOIST
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE USGS REPORTS THAT
GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL IN MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS DUE TO THE MILD WEATHER AND FAIRLY HEAVY RAIN
THAT OCCURRED IN DECEMBER ALLOWING FOR SOME GROUNDWATER RECHARGE.
RESERVOIRS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER BASIN ARE 71.9 PERCENT FULL
WHICH IS 17.1 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. RESERVOIRS IN THE KENNEBEC
RIVER BASIN ARE ALSO AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE TIME OF YEAR
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MOOSEHEAD LAKE WHICH IS JUST BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS.

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ARE MOSTLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR
BUT ARE COMING DOWN DUE TO THE COLD WEATHER. WE SHOULD SEE RIVERS
FLOWS FALL TO NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.
MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NOW ICE COVERED. THE RAIN THAT
OCCURREDON JANUARY 18 AND 19 CAUSED ICE COVER TO MOVE ON SEVERAL
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE RIVERS. BUT EVEN HERE THE ICE WILL BEGIN TO
THICKEN AGAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE ICE THICKNESS IS
LESS THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE IS BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM
SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF
TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY
OF FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM FRIDAY
FEBRUARY 7.

$$
TFH



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