000
FGUS71 KGYX 072026
ESFGYX
MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-007-009-
013-015-017-019-081915-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
300 PM EST THU MAR 7 2013

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN 
MAINE. THE POTENTIAL FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL.

THIS IS THE FOURTH IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC 
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON. THESE OUTLOOKS 
WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE END OF THE SNOW MELT 
SEASON...AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON A 
NUMBER OF FACTORS.


...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A BLOCKING RIDGE 
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. 
THIS BLOCKING RIDGE IS CAUSING STORMS MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST TO 
MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND MEANDER AROUND SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THIS 
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. AT 
THIS POINT HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRODUCING STORMS DONT SEEM LIKELY FOR 
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 
DAY FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION. THE 8 TO 14 DAY FORECAST CALLS FOR NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 6 TO 18 INCHES FROM THE LAKES REGION SOUTH. 
IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GRAFTON AND CARROLL COUNTIES SNOW DEPTH 
RANGES FROM 12 TO 24 INCHES. IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SNOW DEPTH 
RANGES FROM 1 TO 2.5 FEET. 

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN OF GRAFTON AND CARROLL COUNTIES. IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE 
WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER 
AMOUNTS. WATER EQUIVALENT IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE.

...MAINE...

SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 6 TO 18 INCHES FROM THE FOOTHILLS SOUTH. 
NORTH OF THE FOOTHILLS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 
12 INCHES TO 2.5 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. 

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE COAST TO 
THE FOOTHILLS. FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WATER 
EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 
12 INCHES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 
ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER BASIN AND THE UPPER KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN AND 
ABOUT NORMAL ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MAINE. 

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE INDICATORS ARE SHOWING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL SOIL 
MOISTURE IN WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE LONG TERM PALMER 
DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX SHOWS NORMAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE 
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. AS REPORTED BY THE USGS GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE 
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN WERE 47.3 PERCENT FULL 
WHICH IS ABOUT 6 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. RESERVOIRS IN THE 
ANDROSCOGGIN BASIN ARE 52.1 PERCENT FULL WHICH IS ABOUT 15.9 PERCENT 
ABOVE NORMAL. 

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS SPRING.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ARE GENERALLY ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. 

RIVERS AND STREAMS NEAR THE COAST ARE NOW MOSTLY FREE OF ICE. IN THE 
REST OF WESTERN MAINE RIVER ICE RANGES FROM ABOUT 6 TO 12 INCHES 
MOSTLY ON STREAMS AND RIVERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ON THE KENNEBEC RIVER 
FROM AUGUSTA SOUTH THE ICE IS DARKENING AS MELT WATER SIT ON TOP OF 
THE ICE. BELOW AUGUSTA TO RICHMOND THERE ARE LARGE SECTIONS OF THE 
RIVER THAT ARE FREE OF ICE. AT THIS TIME THE US COAST GUARD IS NOT 
ANTICIPATING DOING ICE BREAKING DUTY THIS SPRING ON THE KENNEBEC. 
THERE IS CURRENTLY AN ICE JAM LOCATED ON THE CARRABASSETT RIVER NEAR 
NORTH ANSON.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL 
IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL.

MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...
HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM 
FRIDAY MARCH 22.

$$

TFH