000
FGUS71 KGYX 211833
ESFGYX
MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-007-009-
013-015-017-019-221915-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
130 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. 
THE POTENTIAL FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL.

THIS IS THE FOURTH IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC 
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON. THESE OUTLOOKS 
WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE END OF THE SNOW MELT 
SEASON...AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON A 
NUMBER OF FACTORS.


...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR LAST 2 WEEKS HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE AND THIS 
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY. THE 
OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY 
FORECAST CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION. THE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION COULD LEAD TO AN 
INCREASED FLOOD THREAT IN MARCH.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

THE SNOWPACK HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 2 WEEKS BUT STILL REMAINS 
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 6 TO 12 
INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH LOCALLY 
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MERRIMACK... SULLIVAN... 
GRAFTON... AND CARROLL COUNTIES. SNOW DEPTH IS LESS IN THE 
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF COLEBROOK WITH JUST 3 TO 7 INCHES 
ON THE GROUND. IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE SNOW DEPTH RANGES 
FROM 20 TO 30 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES IN 
THE VALLEYS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN TWO 
THIRDS OF THE STATE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN OF MERRIMACK... SULLIVAN... GRAFTON... AND CARROLL COUNTIES. 
IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 
3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER 
VALLEY SOUTH OF COLEBROOK WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM A TRACE TO 2 
INCHES.

...MAINE...

THE SNOWPACK HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS BUT STILL REMAINS 
BELOW NORMAL. SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 4 TO 12 INCHES FROM THE COAST 
TO THE FOOTHILLS. FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW 
DEPTH RANGES FROM 1 TO 2 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES FROM THE COAST TO 
THE FOOTHILLS. FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WATER 
EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. 

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE INDICATORS ARE SHOWING NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE IN MAINE 
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX 
SHOWS NORMAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. AS 
REPORTED BY THE USGS GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE TIME 
OF YEAR. HE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE 
WHERE GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN WERE 54.2 PERCENT FULL 
WHICH IS ABOUT 7 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. RESERVOIRS IN THE 
ANDROSCOGGIN BASIN ARE 58.5 PERCENT FULL WHICH IS ABOUT 17.2 PERCENT 
ABOVE NORMAL. 

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS SPRING.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ARE GENERALLY ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. 

RIVER ICE HAS REESTABLISHED ITSELF ON SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS 
OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN ICE JAM LOCATED ON THE 
CARRABASSETT RIVER NEAR NORTH ANSON AND THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR 
NORTH STRATFORD. SMALLER JAMS EXIST ON OTHER RIVERS AS WELL. THESE 
JAMS HAVE ESSENTIALLY FROZEN IN PLACE AND WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE NEXT 
WARMUP. THESE ICE JAMS MAY CAUSE FLOODING DURING THE SPRING MELT.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL 
IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL.

MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...
HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM 
FRIDAY MARCH 8.

$$

TFH