000
FGUS71 KGYX 071837
ESFGYX
MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-007-009-
013-015-017-019-081915-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
130 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. 
THE POTENTIAL FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL.

THIS IS THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC 
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON. THESE OUTLOOKS 
WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE END OF THE SNOW MELT 
SEASON...AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON A 
NUMBER OF FACTORS.


...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR LAST 2 WEEKS HAS BEEN COLD AND DRY AS THE 
UPPER LEVEL JET HAS BEEN MOSTLY WEST TO EAST KEEPING THE MOISTURE 
LADEN AIR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ANY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT 
DEVELOPED WOULD ALSO MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE 
INDICATING THAT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL RETREAT INTO CANADA RESULTING IN 
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. 

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST CALLS FOR 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE 8 TO 
14 DAY FORECAST CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION. 

THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT LATE IN THE NEXT 2 WEEK PERIOD ARCTIC 
AIR WILL RETURN.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS ON THE GROUND IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE 
STATE. IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE SNOW DEPTH RANGES 
FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN. 

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS 
UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW DEPTH AND WATER 
EQUIVALENT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR

...MAINE...

SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM LITTLE IF ANY WITHIN ABOUT 20 MILES OF THE 
COAST TO 1 TO 12 INCHES FROM THE FOOTHILL NORTH TO THE CANADIAN 
BORDER. 

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM LITTLE IF ANY WITHIN ABOUT 20 
MILES OF THE COAST TO 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE 
CANADIAN BORDER. SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT OR WELL BELOW 
NORMAL IN MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE INDICATORS ARE SHOWING BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE IN 
MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. THE LONG TERM PALMER 
DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX SHOWS NORMAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE 
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. AS REPORTED BY THE USGS GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE 
NEAR MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN WERE 61.1 PERCENT FULL 
WHICH IS ABOUT 7.1 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. RESERVOIRS IN THE 
ANDROSCOGGIN BASIN ARE 64 PERCENT FULL WHICH IS ABOUT 16 PERCENT 
ABOVE NORMAL. 

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS SPRING.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ARE GENERALLY ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. 

BEFORE THE RECENT WARMUP AN ICE RUN A FEW DAYS AGO ICE THICKNESS WAS 
GENERALLY IN THE 6 TO 12 INCH RANGE. THE VERY MILD WEATHER AND RAIN 
THAT OCCURRED THE LAST 2 DAYS OF JANUARY CAUSED ICE TO MOVE ON MOST 
RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN ICE JAM LOCATED ON 
THE CARRABASSETT RIVER NEAR NORTH ANSON AND THE CONNECTICUT RIVER 
NEAR NORTH STRATFORD. SMALLER JAMS EXIST ON OTHER RIVERS AS WELL. 
THESE JAMS HAVE ESSENTIALLY FROZEN IN PLACE AND WILL REMAIN UNTIL 
THE NEXT WARMUP. SINCE THE COLD AIR MOVED BACK IN ON FEBRUARY 1 ICE 
HAS BEEN THICKENING AGAIN. THESE ICE JAMS MAY CAUSE FLOODING DURING 
THE SPRING MELT.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL 
IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND 
NORTHWEST MAINE AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE 
JAM FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL.

MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...
HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM 
FRIDAY FEBRUARY 22.

$$

TFH