000
FGUS71 KGYX 242004
ESFGYX
MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-007-009-
013-015-017-019-111915-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
300 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND 
NORTHWEST MAINE AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE. THE POTENTIAL FLOODING 
DUE TO ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL.

THIS IS THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC 
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON. THESE OUTLOOKS 
WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE END OF THE SNOW MELT 
SEASON...AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON A 
NUMBER OF FACTORS.


...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BECOME MUCH COLDER AS A TROUGH HAS BEEN 
PARKED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION ALLOWING VERY COLD ARCTIC 
AIR TO MOVE SOUTH. THE COLD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT 
WEEK THOUGH THE COLD WILL RELAX ITS GRIP AS IT APPEARS SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO 
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE MILDER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS 
THE COLD WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. 

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST CALLS FOE 
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE 8 TO 14 
DAY FORECAST CALLS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION. 

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF 
YEAR IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. SNOW DEPTH IN THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE 
STATE ARE GENERALLY BELOW 10 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING 
LOCATED IN THE UPPER PEMIGEWASSET RIVER BASIN. SNOW DEPTH INCREASES 
NORTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH MOOSE FALLS IN FAR NORTHERN COOS 
COUNTY REPORTING 25 INCHES OF SNOW AND SECOND LAKE REPORTING 20 
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND IN RECENT SNOW SURVEYS. 

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS ALSO WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN THE SOUTHERN TWO 
THIRDS OF THE STATE WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM A TRACE TO ABOUT 2 
INCHES. IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE PEMIGEWASSET RIVER BASIN SNOW 
WATER EQUIVALENT IS GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. SNOW WATER 
EQUIVALENT INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY NORTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN 
NORTHERN COOS COUNTY. RECENT SNOW SURVEYS INDICATED 4 TO 6 INCHES OF 
WATER IN THE SNOW PACK AT MOOSE FALLS AND SECOND CONNECTICUT LAKE.

...MAINE...

SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM LESS THAN 6 INCHES WITHIN ABOUT 20 MILES OF 
THE COAST. IN THE FOOTHILLS SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 6 TO 16 INCHES.
FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE CANADIAN 12 TO 24 INCHES ARE THE RULE WITH 
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW DEPTH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF 
YEAR. 

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITHIN ABOUT 20 
MILES OF THE COAST. FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW 
WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER 
AMOUNTS. WATER EQUIVALENT IS CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT 
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE INDICATORS ARE SHOWING BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE IN 
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. THE REST OF THE AREA IS 
IN THE NORMAL RANGE. THE LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX 
SHOWS NORMAL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. AS 
REPORTED BY THE USGS GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE TIME 
OF YEAR.

RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN WERE 64.6 PERCENT FULL 
WHICH IS ABOUT 6 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. RESERVOIRS IN THE 
ANDROSCOGGIN BASIN ARE 66 PERCENT FULL WHICH IS ABOUT 12 PERCENT 
ABOVE NORMAL. 

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS SPRING.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ARE GENERALLY ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. 

ICE MEASUREMENTS TAKEN BY THE USGS 2 WEEKS AGO INDICATED 4 TO 12 
INCHES OF BLACK ICE IN MANY RIVERS. WITH THE ONSET OF SOME VERY COLD 
WEATHER ICE THICKNESS SHOULD BE INCREASING RAPIDLY. IN ADDITION 
THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF FRAZIL ICE PRODUCTION DUE TO THE SUB 
ZERO COLD. FREEZE-UP JAMS ARE POSSIBLE. 

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL 
IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND 
NORTHWEST MAINE AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE 
JAM FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL.

MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...
HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM 
FRIDAY FEBRUARY 8.

$$

TFH