000
FGUS71 KGYX 102121
ESFGYX
MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-007-009-
013-015-017-019-111915-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
400 PM EST THU JAN 10 2013

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN 
MAINE. THE POTENTIAL FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS ALSO NEAR NORMAL.

THIS IS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC 
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON. THESE OUTLOOKS 
WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE END OF THE SNOW MELT 
SEASON...AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON A 
NUMBER OF FACTORS.


...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH 
THE STORM TRACK TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION
IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT 
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT 
WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING. THE COLDER PATTERN MAY BE WITH 
US THROUGH THE END OF JANUARY.

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST AND 8 TO 
14 DAY FORECAST CALLS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION. 

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

IN NORTHER NEW HAMPSHIRE SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 12 INCHES TO ABOUT 2 
FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IN THE SOUTHERN 2 THIRDS OF THE 
STATE SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM AROUND 4 INCHES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS 
AND THE COAST TO AROUND 12 INCHES THE HIGH YOU GO IN ELEVATION. SNOW 
DEPTH IS SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE THE SOUTHERN 
2 THIRDS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN PART 
OF THE STATE. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL 
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

...MAINE...

SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE COAST INLAND TO THE 
FOOTHILLS. IN THE FOOTHILLS SNOW DEPTH IS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 
12 TO 18 INCHES. IN THE MOUNTAINS SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 18 TO 30 
INCHES.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES FORM THE COAST TO 
THE FOOTHILLS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW WATER 
EQUIVALENT IS NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 
NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

MOISTURE INDICATORS ARE MOSTLY NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL 
MAINE WHERE THEY ARE ABOVE NORMAL. AS REPORTED BY THE USGS 
GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE NEAR NEAR NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE WHERE THEY ARE BELOW 
NORMAL.

RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN WERE 69.1 PERCENT FULL 
WHICH IS ABOUT 6 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. RESERVOIRS IN THE 
ANDROSCOGGIN BASIN ARE 69.6 PERCENT FULL WHICH IS ABOUT 12 PERCENT 
ABOVE NORMAL. 

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS SPRING.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

MANY RIVERS IN MAINE AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE NOW 
ICE COVERED. ICE THICKNESS IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. BY 
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDER THAN NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ICE THICKNESS SHOULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. 
THE USGS REPORTS THAT RIVER FLOWS ARE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF 
YEAR ON RIVERS NOT COVERED WITH ICE.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL 
IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM 
FLOODING IS ALSO NEAR NORMAL.

MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...
HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM 
FRIDAY JANUARY 25.

$$

TFH