000
FGUS71 KGYX 301254
ESFGYX
MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-007-009-
013-015-017-019-311915-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
800 AM EST THU MAR 30 2012

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN 
MAINE. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING HAS PASSED FOR THIS 
SEASON.

THIS IS THE SEVENTH IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC 
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON. THESE OUTLOOKS 
WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE END OF THE SNOW MELT 
SEASON...AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON A 
NUMBER OF FACTORS.


...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

THE PATTERN HAS UNDERGONE A SHIFT FROM ONE WHERE THE JET STREAM WAS 
TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND TO A PATTERN WHERE THE JET 
STREAM IS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE STORM TRACK IS 
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO OR SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF WEEKS. 

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST AND 8 TO 
14 DAY FORECAST CALLS NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION. 

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

THE ONLY SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND IS IN FAR NORTHERN NEW 
HAMPSHIRE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 1000 FEET WHERE 1 TO 6 INCHES IS 
STILL PREVALENT. AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET THERE IS STILL 6 TO 
12 INCHES ON THE GROUND. SOUTH OF THIS AREA THE SNOW IS GONE.

THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 

SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME 
OF YEAR.

...MAINE...

SNOW IS ABOUT GONE FOR MOST OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. 
THERE ARE A FEW AREAS THAT STILL HAVE AN INCH OR TWO DUE TO THE 
SNOWFALL THAT OCCURRED A FEW DAYS AGO BUT THIS WILL MELT FAIRLY 
RAPIDLY TODAY AND HAS LITTLE WATER EQUIVALENT IN IT. 

THE ONLY MEANINGFUL SNOW THAT REMAINS ON THE GROUND IS IN THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST MAINE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. SNOW DEPTH 
THERE IS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 6 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET 
WITH A WATER EQUIVALENT OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME 
OF YEAR.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

DUE TO THE EARLY SNOWMELT AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 
FEW WEEKS MOISTURE INDICATORS INCLUDING GROUNDWATER LEVELS AND 
STREAMFLOW ARE SHOWING A RAPID DRYING TREND. UNLESS WE RECEIVE 
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT MONTH THIS DRYING WILL 
ACCELERATE AS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION BEGINS. 

RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN WERE 62.9 PERCENT FULL 
WHICH IS 27.4 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. RESERVOIRS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN 
BASIN ARE 71.2 PERCENT FULL WHICH IS 40.1 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. THE 
LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX INDICATED NORMAL CONDITIONS 
FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. SOIL MOISTURE WAS BELOW NORMAL 
IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS AND NEAR NORMAL IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

THE USGS REPORTED THAT RIVER LEVELS WERE NEAR NORMAL THE NORTHERN 2 
THIRDS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD 
OF THE STATE. IN MAINE STREAMFLOW WAS NEAR NORMAL IN NORTHERN AREAS 
OF WESTERN MAINE AND BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. 

GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE SHOWING ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN NORTHERN 
AREAS AND BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS SPRING.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

THERE IS NO ICE ON RIVERS AND STREAMS IN WESTERN MAINE AND NEW 
HAMPSHIRE.
 
...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL 
IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM 
FLOODING HAS PASSED FOR THIS SEASON.

MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...
HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THIS 
SEASON.

$$

TFH