000
FGUS71 KGYX 151931
ESFGYX
MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-007-009-
013-015-017-019-161915-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
300 PM EST THU MAR 15 2012

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN 
MAINE. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS ALSO BELOW NORMAL IN 
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE MOUNTAINS OF MAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
ICE JAM FLOODING HAS PASSED IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN 
MAINE.

THIS IS THE SIXTH IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC 
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON. THESE OUTLOOKS 
WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE END OF THE SNOW MELT 
SEASON...AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON A 
NUMBER OF FACTORS.


...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

WE CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. FOR 
FEBRUARY THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUSTA, PORTLAND, AND CONCORD 
WAS 3.8, 5.0, AND 5.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RESPECTIVELY. SO FAR 
MARCH HAS BEEN VERY WARM ALSO. AUGUSTA, PORTLAND, AND CONCORD ARE 
3.7, 4.8, AND 6.4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MARCH 14. IN ADDITION 
TO THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PRECIPITATION SINCE EARLY 
FEBRUARY HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER THAN 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE PRECIPITATION HAS LEAD TO A SNOWPACK 
THAT IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. 

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY 
70S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. THE OFFICIAL 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE 8 TO 14 DAY 
FORECAST CALLS NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. 

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE THE SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY 
GONE. FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW IS 
QUITE VARIABLE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 10 INCHES IN THE 
VALLEYS. IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 1 TO 2 FEET. A 
RECENT SNOW SURVEY AT MOOSE FALLS ELEVATION 1950 FEET INDICATED 28 
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. SNOW DEPTH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR 
THE TIME OF YEAR IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE THE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 
WATER EQUIVALENT REMAINING ON THE GROUND. FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS 
NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM A 
TRACE TO 3 INCHES. IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WATER EQUIVALENT IN GENERAL 
RANGES FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES. MOOSE FALLS REPORTED 8 INCHES OF WATER 
EQUIVALENT IN A RECENT SNOW SURVEY. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS WELL 
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

...MAINE...

THERE IS LITTLE OR NO SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND WITHIN ABOUT 50 
MILES OF THE COAST. IN THE FOOTHILLS SNOW DEPTH IS QUITE VARIABLE 
AND RANGES FROM A TRACE TO ABOUT 1 FOOT. FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 
CANADIAN BORDER SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 1 TO 2 FEET WITH LOCALLY 
HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 1500 FEET. SNOW DEPTH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE 
TIME OF YEAR.

THERE IS LITTLE OR NO SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ON THE GROUND WITHIN 
ABOUT 50 MILES OF THE COAST. IN THE FOOTHILLS WATER EQUIVALENT 
RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER 
WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER 
AMOUNTS. WATER EQUIVALENT IN WESTERN MAINE IS IN THE LOWEST 10 
PERCENT OF HISTORICAL READINGS.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN WERE 41 PERCENT FULL 
WHICH IS 2.8 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. RESERVOIRS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN 
BASIN ARE 52.7 PERCENT FULL WHICH IS 21 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. THE 
LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX INDICATED NORMAL CONDITIONS 
FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE PDSI IS UNUSUALLY 
MOIST IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

AS OF MARCH 14 SOIL MOISTURE WAS NEAR NORMAL IN MAINE AND NEW 
HAMPSHIRE.

THE USGS REPORTED THAT GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS MAINE AND 
NEW HAMPSHIRE WERE NEAR NORMAL TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL.

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS SPRING.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

THERE IS NO ICE ON MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS IN SOUTHERN MAINE AND THE 
SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE ONLY ICE THAT EXISTS IS ON 
SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE ICE IS AROUND 
1 FOOT THICK OR LESS.
 
...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL 
IS BELOW FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THE POTENTIAL FOR SERIOUS ICE JAM 
FLOODING IS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...
HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 
AM FRIDAY 30 MARCH 2012.

$$

TFH