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FGUS71 KGYX 201818
ESFGYX
MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-211600-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
200 PM EST FRI MAR 20 2009

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

INTERIM SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL FOR WESTERN MAINE AND 
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING IS NEAR NORMAL.

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

AS IS USUAL IN SPRING...LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES HAVE OCCURRED 
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. BELOW NORMAL ONE DAY AND THEN 10 
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT. NIGHTS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY 
COLD THOUGH AND THIS HAS HELPED TO SLOWLY MELT THE SNOWPACK. THE 
WEATHER THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEKS APPEARS AS THOUGH IT 
WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL. A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION 
YESTERDAY COLLING IT DOWN SOMEWHAT. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY USHERING IN 
EVEN COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE TUESDAY OR 
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. IN THE LONGER TERM IT IS 
DIFFICULT TO SAY WHAT UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL WIN OUT. THERE 
IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE END OF MARCH AND EARLY APRIL COULD BE 
STORMY... HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO JUMP ON ANY 
PARTICULAR SCENARIO. 

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

...SNOW DEPTH...

ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...THE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO 
MELT AWAY AND LARGE AREAS OF BARE GROUND ARE APPEARING IN OPEN 
AREAS. MOST SPOTS LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE REPORTING 
10 INCHES OR LESS OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS 
IS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SULLIVAN AND WESTERN MERRIMACK COUNTIES 
WHERE ABOUT 1 FOOT OF SNOW IS ON THE GROUND AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 
FEET. ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SNOW DEPTH RANGES 
FROM 8 TO 16 INCHES. SOME LOCATIONS ON THE CONNECTICUT RIVER SIDE OF 
GRAFTON COUNTY ARE REPORTING BARE GROUND. ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER IN 
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...1.5 TO 3 FEET OF SNOW STILL BLANKETS THE 
GROUND ABOVE 1500 FEET. FOR INSTANCE...AS OF THIS MORNING...MOOSE 
FALLS IN FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE REPORTED 38 INCHES OF SNOW ON 
THE GROUND...SECOND CONNECTICUT LAKE REPORTED 34 INCHES OF SNOW ON 
THE GROUND...AND DIAMOND POND 33 INCHES. SNOW DEPTH IS ABOUT NORMAL 
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. 

...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...

ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS 
RANGE FROM AS LITTLE AS A TRACE TO AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES BELOW 1000 
FEET. ABOVE 1000 FEET IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SNOW WATER 
EQUIVALENTS ARE AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 INCHES. ACROSS CENTRAL AND 
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE 
RUNNING...ON AVERAGE...BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES BUT THOSE AMOUNTS 
INCREASE TO ABOVE 10 INCHES OVER 1500 FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS 
ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR LATE MARCH.

...MAINE...

...SNOW DEPTH...

ALONG COASTAL MAINE AND PORTIONS OF YORK AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES... 
LARGE BARE SPOTS ARE SHOWING UP. FARTHER NORTH TO THE FOOTHILLS SOME 
BARE SPOTS ARE SHOWING UP IN FARM FIELDS AND ANY LOCATION WHERE 
TREES ARE ABSENT. 

ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE OF MIDCOAST AND SOUTHWEST MAINE SNOW 
DEPTH RANGES FOR JUST A TRACE TO ABOUT 6 INCHES. FROM THE INTERIOR 
OF MAINE TO THE FOOTHILLS...SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 1 TO 2 FEET.
ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW DEPTH 
RANGES FROM 18 TO 30 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXIST ABOVE 1500 
FEET. SNOW DEPTH IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...

ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MAINE...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS 
GENERALLY RANGE FROM LITTLE IF ANY TO ABOUT 2 INCHES. JUST INLAND 
FROM THE COAST BY 5 OR SO MILES SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT INCREASES TO 
ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES. FURTHER INLAND TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW 
WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 5 AND 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER 
AMOUNTS FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. SNOW WATER 
EQUIVALENT IS ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

AS OF MARCH 19 RESERVOIRS IN THE KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN WERE 27 
PERCENT FULL WHICH WAS 10 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIRS IN THE 
ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER BASIN WERE 46 PERCENT FULL WHICH WAS 13 PERCENT 
ABOVE NORMAL. 

AS OF MARCH 14 THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX INDICATED VERY 
MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. AS OF MARCH 19 SOIL 
MOISTURE WAS SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. GROUNDWATER 
MONITORING WELLS ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE GENERALLY NEAR 
TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. ONE WELL IN WESTERN MAINE WAS 
REPORTING RECORD LEVEL FOR MARCH.

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS SPRING.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER LEVELS ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

ICE IS BEGINNING TO ROT IN PLACE DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND 
THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE. FROM CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE SOUTH...ICE MAY NOT 
BE A FACTOR THIS SPRING IF CONDITIONS LIKE THIS CONTINUE. IN 
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ICE IS STILL ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 FEET 
THICK BUT EVEN THERE IT IS BEGINNING TO ROT. IN WESTERN MAINE ICE 
THICKNESS IS ALSO ABOUT 1 TO 2 FEET THICK. IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS 
THE ICE IS STILL FAIRLY HARD. SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE 
FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST ICE IS ROTTING QUICKLY.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...NEAR NORMAL SNOWPACK AND A ROTTING 
ICE COVER...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL FOR 
THE TIME OF YEAR. CURRENTLY WE ARE EXPERIENCING PERFECT WEATHER FOR 
SLOWLY MELTING THE SNOWPACK...MILD DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS WITH LITTLE 
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. WE SHOULD SEE AN OVERALL RISE IN RIVERS 
AS THE SNOW MELTS DIURNALLY. THERE REMAINS A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK 
HOWEVER...THAT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MELT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE 
SNOWPACK LAST INTO APRIL IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE MAJOR RIVERS. 
WEATHER TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS WE PROCEED 
THROUGH MARCH. THE FARTHER INTO MARCH WE GO WITH A SUBSTANTIAL 
SNOWPACK THE MORE AT RISK WE ARE FOR A RAPID WARMUP COINCIDING WITH 
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT.

MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW 
MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT 
FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING.

ANOTHER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 3.

$$

TFH