000
FXUS62 KMHX 241352
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
852 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 850AM TUESDAY...ONLY CHANGE TO MORNING UPDATE WAS TO KEEP
DRIZZLE WORDING ALL DAY OVER NE ZONES...WHERE LATEST VIS PICS SHOW
A LITTLE DEEPER CLOUDINESS OCCURRING LIKELY DUE TO SOME WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE W/NW OF SFC LOW OFF THE OUTER BANKS. SHORT TERM MODELS
ALSO SHOW SOME MINIMAL QPF OVER THIS REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
UPSTREAM SAT PICS OVER INLAND AREAS SHOW SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
LOW CLOUDS BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING APPRECIABLE SUN TODAY OUTSIDE
OF A FEW PEAKS. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS
EXTENSIVE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH BLANKET THE AREA. THE 00Z GFS
TRIES TO LIFT THESE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC NAM MODEL KEEPS THE LOW CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY. WE
PREFER THE NAM AS THERE ARE NO MECHANISMS FOR SCORING OUT THE
WEDGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE SO WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TODAY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...FOLLOWING THE NAM WILL KEEP LOW
CLOUDS/DREARY FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAMMING SHOULD BREAK
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COL SURFACE PATTERN DEVELOPS AND
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX DOWN WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 60S BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO GO WITH MID 60S MAV FORECAST. THE GFS IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE
NAM AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL OFF THE SE COAST. SINCE THE GFS
APPEARS TO BE AFFECTED BY GRID SCALE FEEDBACK IT IS LIKELY TOO WET
OVER NC. WE ARE ALREADY CARRYING MINIMAL CHANCE POPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (HIGHEST COAST) SO WILL CONTINUE FOR 1 MORE
FORECAST CYCLE. ANY COASTAL MOISTURE SHOULD WANE THURSDAY BUT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH MAY BE ABLE TO
WRING OUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW PREFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING SO AGAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
POPS. VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING SO REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
DESPITE PRESENCE OF COLD/UNSTABLE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MILD MID 60S THURSDAY THEN DROP INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND AS THICKNESSES COME UP. HOWEVER...NIGHTS WILL BE
CHILLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AND
SURFACE WINDS DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION. L-M30S
POSSIBLE DEEP INLAND SAT AND SUN MORNINGS BEFORE MODIFYING A FEW
DEGREES INTO MON MORNING AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. COULD SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP BUT DID NOT WANT TO
MESS WITH DAY 7 FORECAST UNTIL MORE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST DATA
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUE...ALL TAF SITES SHOWS LIFR CEILINGS WITH REDUCED
VSBY IN FOG. ANTICIPATE STRATUS AND FOG TO LINGER OVER THE REGION
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AS OVERRUNNING CONTINUES. EXPECT CEILINGS
WILL LIFT FROM LIFR TO IFR/MVFR LATER TODAY...THEN BACK DOWN TO
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT. THE HIGH TO THE W WILL WEAKEN ON WED AND
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK AS ANOTHER LOW PRES AREA APPROACHES FROM
THE SW. EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS BUT PREDOMINANTLY VFR. LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WED INTO THU NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS BUT CLEAR SKIES
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N
OF OCRACOKE. SEAS ARE HOVERING AROUND 5-6 FT AT DUCK AND 6 FT AT
DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY CURRENTLY. LOCAL SWAN MODEL RUN AND WW3 IN
AGREEMENT WITH SEAS REMAINING IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE LIKELY THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE OFF HAT THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NE WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW 15 KT
OR LESS. THE NEXT COASTAL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW ON WED AND
WED NIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
ON THU ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE TO THE EAST. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN NE OF THE AREA
LATE THU AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW. GFS MODEL ADVERTISING STRONG SCA CONDS WITH NW WINDS
25-30 KT AS COLD HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THROUGH EARLY SAT. PRES GRAD
RELAXES LATE SAT AS LOW MOVES WELL AWAY TO THE NE AND SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/MW
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME/MW
AVIATION...JAC
MARINE...JAC