000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230253
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
953 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST
NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG ~1035MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA....WITH SFC RIDGING EXTENDING
DOWN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. TO THE SOUTH...SFC LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BE NOTED ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ALOFT...UPR LVL LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT....AS THE GULF COAST SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVERNIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING GOOD SLUG OF ISENTROPIC MOISTURE
PROVIDING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HVY RAINFALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NEAR TERM MODELS ALL AGREE IN SLOWLY
PUSHING THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE HEELS OF STRONG WAA
(SW FLOW) ALOFT ON THE ORDER OF 25-35KT AT H850-700.

WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED SKY COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVC FOR ALL
ZONES WITH LLVL ENE FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WL GO
AHEAD WITH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MOST NC ZONES WITH PCPN LIKELY
COMING WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. FARTHER NORTH...WL STILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO SATURATE MID/LLVLS. TRENDED UPWARDS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALL
ZONES...BUT USED LGT RA/DZ WORDING OVER FAR NORTHERN TIER WITH THE
THOUGHT THAT PCPN SHIELD SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS THROUGH 11Z TO PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
VALUES ALONG/NORTH OF A KLKU-KWAL LINE. FOR TEMPS...STAYED CLOSE
TO INHERITED LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE JUST ABOVE LAMP MOS VALUES...IN
THE MID 40S NW TO LWR 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES MOVES UP THE ERN SEABOARD MON THRU TUE. MOIST NE ONSHR FLO
AHEAD OF THE LO WILL HELP TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE
DAY...W/A DECENT RAINFALL EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA MON INTO ERLY
MON EVENG (ESPLY LWR MD). QPF AMTS SHUD BE BETWEEN .25 INCH TO .50
INCH MOST AREAS...WITH HIER TOTALS POSSIBLE OVR THE SE. MAX TEMPS
ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S.

LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY UP THE CST LATER MON NGT THRU TUE
WITH WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGON TUE AND TUE NGT. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT A MSTLY CLDY OR CLDY SKY TO DOMINATE OUR WX DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS FCST AREA REMAINS IN AN IN-SITU WEDGE SCENARIO WITH LO
LVLS MOIST ARND 850-900MB AND BELOW. VRY LGT RAIN OR PATCHY DRIZZLE
STILL POSSIBLE ESPLY TUE MORNG...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ALL AREAS TUE NGT. LOWS MON NGT IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS
ON TUE IN THE MID TO UPR 50S.

GENERALLY MSTLY CLDY STILL ON WED WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHRAS IN THE
AFTN/EVENG...AS A WEAK COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W. MAX TEMPS IN
THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY WED NGT/THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF NOW BOTH SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK 
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID ATLC...WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW 
MOVING UP THE SE COAST. THE LOW STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS NNE AND OFF 
THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST THU NGT/FRI. CARRIED 20-40% CHANCES FOR 
SHWRS THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT (HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST). 

AFTER THAT...GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPR 
LOW...NOW CLOSING IT OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION FRI/FRI NGT. 
STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES...WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF STILL 
KEEPING THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER VA (RATHER THAN THE 
CAROLINAS). GIVEN THIS TRACK...HAVE TRENDED THE FCST A BIT CLOUDIER 
AND ADDED 20-30% CHANCES FOR PRECIP FRI AFTN/EVENING FOR CNTRL AND 
NRN ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP THE SOUTH DRY. ADDED A BIT MORE IN THE WAY 
OF CLOUD CVR SAT (PTLY SUNNY) BUT OVERALL A COOL DRY PATTERN SHOULD 
PREVAIL W/ WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW. HIGHS FRI/SAT...ARND 50 FAR NORTH 
TO MID 50S SOUTH. DRY W/ A SLIGHT WARMING TREND SUNDAY AS RIDGING 
SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE E COAST FROM THE SW...HIGHS MID/UPR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCTD SHWRS CURRENTLY MVG NE
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA. ADDED TEMPO GROUP AT RIC FOR THIS REASON.
OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF RAIN HAS MVD INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF
AN UPR LOW CURRENTLY IN TN. THIS LOW WL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH RAIN MVG INTO ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT SBY BY 09Z. PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WL
CONTINUE THROUGH MON WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE EARLY MON MRNG
ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF HEAVIER PCPN.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVES OUT MON EVNG BUT MOIST NRLY FLOW WL
LIKELY KEEP IFR CIGS IN THE AREA INTO TUE. CONDS WL IMPROVE BY
WED AS HI PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHC FOR PCPN AND LWR CIGS LOOKS TO BE THU AS A FNTL
SYSTEM MVS ACRS THE AREA. DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD BRING VFR
CONDITIONS BACK ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS OVER THE CSTL WATERS ARE RISING FAST THIS EVENING AND HAVE
BUMPED SEAS UP A FEW FEET...TO 5-7 FT S AND 6-8 FT NORTH. SCA HEADLINES
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HRS WILL BE THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE US COAST...AND A 1035+ MB HIGH OVER
NEW ENGLAND. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST/OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES W/ THE POSITION OF THE SFC HIGH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A SOMEWHAT WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAN THEY HAD SHOWN YSDY. WILL KEEP SCA HEADLINES FOR MON (NO
GALES)...BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE AND ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25
KT SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE COAST ALONG WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO FCST SEAS ABOUT 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH
(UP TO 8-9 FT OFFSHORE NRN CSTL WATERS). WINDS TURN TO THE NNW AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER MON NGT AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT SCA HEADLINES STAY UP THROUGH THE 4TH PERIOD/TUE AFTN
FOR THE CSTL WATERS DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL/SEAS 5 FT+. ANOTHER SFC
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A STRG WNW FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC REMAINS DOWN ATTM. TECHNICIANS WILL 
RETURN TO THE SITE MONDAY. A RETURN TO SERVICE TIME ISN'T YET
KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR 
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG/MAM
NEAR TERM...TMG/MAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...LKB
EQUIPMENT...