000
FXUS61 KAKQ 100605
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
105 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAIN AREA OF PCPN WAS MOVNG INTO ERN AND NERN CNTIES LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH GENERALLY A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
OCCURRING N OF A FVX TO RIC TO MFV LINE...AND JUST RAIN S OF THIS
LINE OVR SCNTRL/SE VA AND NE NC. THIS MAIN AREA OF PCPN WILL LIFT
NE OF THE CWA ERLY WED MORNG...WITH DRY SLOT MOVNG INTO THE REGION
FM THE WSW. ONLY VRY LGT OR NO PCPN THEN EXPECTED INTO WED MORNG.
WRMER AIR FM THE ATLC WILL CHANGE ANY FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW OVR TO
RAIN ACRS THE VA ERN SHR AND LWR MD IN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...AS LO
PRES MOVES UP OFF THE NE NC AND SE VA CST. IN THE PIEDMONT...SNOW
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN...WILL CHANGE TO JUST SNOW LATE TNGT OR TWD
WED MORNG...AS NW SFC WNDS FILTER COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE
AS COLD AIR RETURNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES. SNOW SHOULD EXTENDED WEST INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA IN THE MORNING REACHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE
RICHMOND METRO AREA. SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION...8 TO 12
INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS DORCHESTER COUNTY MARYLAND...WITH 4 TO 8
INCHES FROM THE NORTHERN NECK TO LOUISA COUNTY. MUCH LESSER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE RICHMOND METRO AREA...WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF THE PETERSBURG AREA. THE CURRENT
WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL REMAIN AS IS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AS WELL...WITH NOTTOWAY...DINWIDDIE...AND
PRINCE GEORGE COUNTIES REMOVED AS THE THREAT OF WINTRY WEATHER HAS
DIMINISHED.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLDER THAN NRML WX PTRN CONTS THROUGH THE XTNDD PD. NAO RMNG 
NEG...W/ STRNG LO PRES CIRCULATING INVOF XTRM ERN CANADA/CANADIAN 
MARITIMES...KPS ANOMALOUS/DP TROUGH LOCKED OVR THE ERN CONUS. LO 
PRES STILL XPCTD TO STAY S OF THE RGN FRI INTO SAT. AFT THAT...XTNDD 
GUID SUGGS THAT THERE WL BE A BRK IN THE SRN STMS TRACKING FM THE 
LWR PLAINS TO THE E CST FM THE WKND THROUGH ERY NEXT NEXT WK. 
RE-ENFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR SUGGD LT SUN INTO MON. OTRW...DRY/NW FLO 
XPCTD ERY NEXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY SEEING IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SURFACE
LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN OVER VIRGINIA BEACH. THE PARENT LOW IS
STILL WELL TO THE WEST NEAR THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ERIE. THE
PROCESS OF TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO THE COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW IS WESTERN VA ARRIVES
ALONG THE COAST AND THE COLD AIR INTENSIFIES THE SFC LOW. IN THE
MEAN TIME...THE FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED
WILL SEE THE LOW CLOUDS AND VSBY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...RIC
AROUND 9Z...PHF 10Z AND THE REMAINING SITES BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z.

AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES...THE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE...COULD SEE A BURST OF SNOW...MAINLY FOR RIC AND SBY.
ONCE THE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST...THE FLOW WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH STRONG GUST DEVELOPING DURING THE
DAY TIME. THIS NW FLOW WILL HELP CLEAR OUT MOST OF VA AND NERN NC.
THE DELMARVA ON THE OTHER HAND WILL REMAIN IN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW FALL WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
THE LOW PULLS FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST AFTER 00Z THAT THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF AT SBY AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCNDRY LO PRES WILL DVLP ONCE AGN INVOF VA CAPES OVRNGT...THEN 
INTENSIFY SGFNTLY AS IT EXITS THE CST AND TRACKS NE TUE THROUGH 
WED/WED NGT. ONSHR WNDS AHD OF THAT SYS INCRSG LT TUE THROUGH TUE 
NGT (TO SCA - EVENTUALLY)...THEN A SWING IN DRCTN TO WNW XPCTD ON 
WED. W/ STM INTENSIFYING OFFSHR...AND STRENGTH OF LLVL CAA IN ITS 
WAKE...GALES XPCTD ALL WTRS...DVLPG WED MRNG/MIDDAY. THERE IS ALSO A 
HI PRBLTY OF STM SPDS (AT LEAST GUSTS) ON THE OCN WTRS...MOST LIKELY 
FM WED AFTN INTO (ERY THU). INSTEAD OF TMG RAMP-UP HEADLINES...PLAN 
IS TO SIMPLIFY THEM...GALES ON THE BAY/SND...STM WRNG ON 
THE OCN (STARTING BTWN 12-15Z WED)...LASTING THROUGH WED NGT 
(PTNTLLY ERY THU NRN OCN WTRS. MOD NW WNDS CONTS THU INTO FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WRNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE CHOWAN
RIVER BASIN. MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UPPER MEHERRIN AND NOTTOWAY RIVERS HAVE
CRESTED AND THE LOWER NOTTOWAY CONTINUES GRADUAL RISES. SEE FLSAKQ
FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES RUNNING ARND/A TOUCH BLO NRML ATTM. MAIN CONCERN IS W/ WNDSHFT 
TO NW (AND INCREASE) ON WED...CONTG INTO THU. PSBL MINOR FLDG ON THE 
ERN SHR OF THE CHES BAY...INVOF DORCHESTER CTY...(AND THOUGH GUID 
CURRENTLY NOT REALLY SHOWING IT)...THE PTNTL BLOW OUT TIDES ON THE 
CST/SRN BAY WED AFTN THROUGH THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     MDZ021>025.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING 
     FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING 
     FOR VAZ048-049-060>073-079>084-087>098.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ099.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     VAZ074>078-085-086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ060>062-
     068>071-082>084-090.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
     049-063-064-072>078-085.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     ANZ650-652-654.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     ANZ656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG/AZ
NEAR TERM...TMG/AZ
SHORT TERM...AZ
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...ALB/AM
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...