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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 292023
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
423 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL SLIDE NORTH AND
DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS LOCKED IN PLACE JUST
OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL NORTH
OF THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY REMAINS IN PLACE THIS EVENG OVER NC WITH AN
AREA OF LO-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE FRONT LEADING TO A MSTLY
CLOUDY SKY OVER SRN AREAS...MSTLY SUNNY TO THE N. ALOFT...AN UPR-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IS SITUATED ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENG DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING. WITH A
BIT MORE FORCING AND MOISTURE LATE OVRNGT DID INTRODUCE A SLGT
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. PARTLY TO MSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH LGT
ONSHORE FLOW N OF THE FRONT. LO TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT SLIDES N AND WEAKENS IN THE PROCESS SAT
MORNG...WITH A SLGT CHANCE OF A SHRA/TSTM THRU THE DAY. TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER THAN FRI AS HI PRES STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE AND SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPR 80S IN MOST
AREAS...LWR 80S OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE.

FOR SUN AND MON...UPR-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BUT WITH SFC HI
PRES REMAINING OFFSHORE AND PERSISTENT SLY FLOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
60S TO MID 70S. AS FOR PRECIP...BEST CHANCE (40-50%) FOR
AFTN/EVENG RAIN WILL BE OVER WRN AREAS BOTH DAYS...WITH LESS OF A
CHANCE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FA. THE RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROFS AND DEVELOPING SFC LEE
TROFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF ATTM TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS
ANYTIME DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ALONG/OFF THE SE US
COAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE WSW AND BECOMES ANCHORED FROM THE GULF
COAST TO TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOUT 5-10 F ABOVE
AVG TUE BEFORE FALLING A FEW DEGREES WED-FRI (ALTHOUGH READINGS
WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE AVG  THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK).

AFTER A FAIRLY HIGH CHC FOR SCATTERED TSTMS MON EVENING (~40%)...TUE
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE AND A COLD
FRONT THAT IS SLOW TO APPROACH FROM THE NW. MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
HIGHS GENLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WILL CARRY A 20-30% CHC FOR
TUE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA AND
HEIGHTS ALOFT DROP AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER
HOWEVER...AS FRONT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING AT THIS TIME AND BEST
LIFT/FORCING REMAIN N/W OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL CARRY 20-30%
MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC WED AS THE BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO
PUSH THROUGH. HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S WED. 

BY WED NIGHT-FRI...A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC FORECAST
DOES PLACE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NE CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...BUT THE FRONT
DOES NOT LOOKS VERY STRONG SO HIGHS WILL STILL AVG 85-90 F THU/FRI
(COOLEST ALONG THE COAST AND ERN SHORE). GENLY DRY /PARTLY-MOSTLY
SUNNY BUT WILL KEEP DIURNAL AFTN/EARLY EVENING 20% POPS ACRS THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A 
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE CAROLINAS BACK INTO
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE SKC OR MOSTLY
SO AND EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST AT SBY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FARTHER SOUTH, SOME SCT-BKN CU/SC PERSISTS FROM SE VA/NE NC (INVOF
ORF/ECG) BACK TO JUST WEST OF KGSO. EXPECT MUCH OF THESE CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. AND WHILE A FEW ISOLATED SHRAS ARE
POSSIBLE, EXPECT TERMINALS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY YIELD A
RE-OCCURANCE OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PIEDMONT, WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS DROPS CIGS INTO MVFR RANGE AT
RIC/PHF/ECG...AND EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF TEMPO IFR CIGS AFTER
09Z OVER THE SAME AREAS. WILL MENTION MVFR CONDS FOR NOW, WITH A
SCATTERED DECK JUST ABOVE 1KFT. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED, HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY SHRAS OVERNIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS WOULD
BE LOW, SO WILL HOLD OUT OF THE TAF FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING INCREASE TO 30
TO 40 PERCENT MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE,
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL EXIST EACH DAY WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM NY TO NEW ENGLAND PROVIDING E/NE FLOW 
ACRS THE MARINE AREA WITH WIND SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KT. WILL 
GRADUALLY SEE THE WINDS TURN TO THE E/SE OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY...BUT 
EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...WELL BELOW SCA 
LEVELS. WITH RELATIVELY WARM WATERS...COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL EFFECTS 
WITH S/SE FLOW CHANNELING UP THE BAY SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT 
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT (AND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 
KT)...BUT DOUBT IT WILL BE PROLONGED ENOUGH FOR ANY HEADLINES. SEAS 
WILL GENERALLY RUN 3 FT OR LESS BUT MAY INCREASE TO 4 FT IN THE 
OUTER PORTION OF 20NM MAINLY FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND ON NORTH LATE 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BAY WAVES WILL AVG 1-2 FT...BUT MAY BUILD TO 
2-3 FT SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IT 
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET (OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION) WITH SEAS 2-4 FT 
AND WAVES 1-2 FT OR LESS AS SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE AND 
NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE TUE/WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...ESS/MAM
MARINE...LKB






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