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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 152302
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
702 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MONDAY 
NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE 
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRS OVER THE SRN PLAINS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE RGN.
NW WINDS DIMINISH AFTR SUNSET BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNITE. THIS 
ALONG WITH MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY SKIES ALLOWS TMPS TO DROP INTO THE 
M-U30S NORTH...U30S-L40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SW WINDS DEVELOP MON INTO MON NIGHT DUE TO WAA. MODELS CONTINUE TO 
SHOW A WEAK LEESIDE TROF MON AFTRN. ANTHR WEAK VORT MAX WILL LIKELY 
RESULT IN SCT-BKN CU/CIRRUS. A MILD DAY UNDER PT-MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 
HIGHS IN THE M60S-L70S WEST OF THE BAY...60-65 COASTAL AREAS.
  
MON NIGHT STARTS OUT MSTLY CLR WITH INCRSG CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD WITH LOWS M40S-L50S. 

A MILD TO WARM DAY TUE AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED TO 
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FA TUE AFTN/EVENING. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE AMOUNT OF MSTR WITH THIS BNDRY...NOW KEEPING ANY THREAT FOR 
PCPN ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. ANY QPF WILL BE MINIMAL (MAYBE
A HUNDREDTH AT BEST). KEPT SLGHT CHC SHWR MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF CHES 
BAY AFTR 18Z. 

TMPS RISE QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE BNDRY...THEN STEADY OUT OR DROP LATE 
IN THE DAY ALONG THE ERN SHORE DUE TO A WIND SHIFT / CLOUD COVERAGE.
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE M60S ERN SHORE TO M-U70S ALONG AND SW OF THE
I95 CORRIDOR WHERE WEST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG WITH MORE SUNSHINE
BEFORE FROPA (PSBLY 80 IVOF AVC).

ANY SHWRS/SPRNKLS ACROSS TIDEWATER/NRN OUTER BANKS TUE EVE END ERLY
AS BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE FA. COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION RETURNING THE AREA TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS.
CLRG SKIES TUE NIGHT. LOWS L-M30S NORTH...35-40 SOUTH. MSTLY SUNNY AND
COOLER WED. HIGHS L-M50S...XCPT M40S ERN SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND A 
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH ONE SYSTM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR WED 
NIGHT...SFC HI PRES REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC 
WITH A SRN STREAM SYSTM APPROACHING FM THE SW. POPS THEN INCREASE 
(TO 40-50%) THU AND THU NIGHT AS THE LO PRES SYSTM AFFECTS THE LOCAL 
AREA WITH -RA. TEMPS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPR 40S MOST 
AREAS ON THU. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FM W TO E ON FRI AS THE SYSTM 
PUSHES OFFSHORE. HI TEMPS RANGE THRU THE 50S. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS 
IN FM THE W FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH MODERATING TEMPS (HIGHS NR 60 IN 
MANY AREAS SAT).

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS WITH MOSTLY CLR TO PTCLDY SKY OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...EXCEPT FOR BKN CU/SC CIGS OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THRU THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THRU THE REGION EARLY MONDAY AND BRING SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUD CIGS BEFORE CLEARING OUT DURING THE AFTN.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LOW PRES SYS
WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND PSBL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE OVER NRN CSTL WTRS WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20-25 KT. WILL END THE SCA OVER THE NRN CSTL WTRS AT 1AM
WHERE SEAS UP TO 5 FT OUT 20 NM ARE ALSO EXPECTED. SFC HI PRES
THEN BLDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE STATES LATE TNGT INTO MON
LEADING TO IMPROVING MARINE CONDS. ANOTHER (STRONGER) COLD FRNT
CROSSES THE WTRS TUE...WITH SCA CONDS LIKELY TUE NIGHT AND WED
MORNG. BENIGN MARINE CONDS THEN LATE WED AND WED NIGHT WITH SFC HI
PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MAS






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