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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271535
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1035 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN VA. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN PLACE OVER
THE SE CONUS...PROVIDING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (H7 TO H5 OF
7 TO 8 C/KM). WITH ALL OF THIS LIFT...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 80% ACRS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS...BUFFERED BY HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG ONLY 0.10" MOST
AREAS...LOCALLY TO AROUND .25" IN THE FAR SE. DEW PTS AND SFC WET
BULB TEMPS FROM AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES MODEL DATA SUGGEST
RAIN AS PTYPE (ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET OR GRAUPEL COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN
WITH INCREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY). STILL...NO ACCUMULATION OF
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIQUID IS EXPECTED AS TEMPS ARE GENLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. 

SOME PARTIAL SUN HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACRS THE ERN SHORE THIS MORNING
BUT SHOULD CLOUD OVER SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TO MID
AFTN...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE FROM CURRENT VALUES AND ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S ALL AREAS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRS BUILDS ESE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TONITE THEN BECOMES 
CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS SE 
AND OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT. MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE 
PRD...WITH SOME INCRS IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS FRI NIGHT / SAT 
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA). THIS AS FLOW ALOFT 
FLATTENS AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS N THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. 

TEMPS REMAIN BELOW AVG TONIGHT / FRI FOR THOSE HOLIDAY SHOPPERS.
LOWS IN THE 20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI ONLY 40-45 F. LOWS FRI NITE M20S-
L30S. TEMPS MODERATE A BIT ON SAT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SSW. STILL A BIT BELOW AVG WITH HIGHS 50-55 F CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AND IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT-SUN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS 
THRU THE REGION. SLY FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL 
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS SUN...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE NEXT 
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUN 
NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA MON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO BE 
DRY OVER THE REGION...EXCEPT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE CNTRL 
APPALACHIANS AND ERN VA PIEDMONT...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE. TEMPS 
MON WARM INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES 
MON NIGHT...LOCATING OVER NEW ENGLAND TUES AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE 
RIDGES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...SETTING UP AN IN-SITU CAD WEDGE OVER 
THE REGION...WITH NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT OVERRUNNING 
PRECIP MON NIGHT AND TUES. TUES HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NW TO 
MID 50S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WEDS AS ANOTHER 
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HIGHS WEDS IN THE MID-UPPER 
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS. 
NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH SOME -RA 
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KRIC BETWEEN 11-15Z. MFVR 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR 
CONDITIONS AT KRIC IF RAIN MIXES WITH SNOW.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN/EVE WITH VFR AND DRY WX
INDICATED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING (5-7 
FT NORTH AND 4-6 FT SOUTH)...BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE 
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE SOUTHERN 
WATERS THRU 7 AM...AND THE NORTHERN WATERS THRU 10 AM. OTW...W-NW 
WINDS 5-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE BY LATE MORNING.   

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT 
OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20-25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS 
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 5-6 FT...HIGHEST 20 NM OUT. THEREAFTER...HIGH 
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND... 
RESULTING IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE 
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY 
     FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM






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