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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211118
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
718 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LO PRES OFF THE CAROLINA CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NE INTO THE ATLC DURING TODAY. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVR EXTRM SE VA
AND NE NC FOR A WHILE THIS MORNG...ALONG WITH A SLGT CHC OF RAIN
OVR NE NC CNTIES NEXT TO THE ALBEMARLE SND AND ATLC OCEAN.
OTHERWISE...THE SKY WILL BE PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...AS THE
LO SLIDES FARTHER INTO THE ATLC AND UPR LVL RDG BLDS OVR THE
REGION. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S ALNG THE
CST/NEAR THE WTR...TO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT TRACKING INTO THE OH VLY MON EVENG...WILL PUSH E AND
OVR THE MTNS TUE MORNG. THAT FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FM
W TO E TUE...ALONG WITH A CHC FOR SHOWERS. MOST OF IF NOT ALL THE
SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTN W...AND TWD LATE AFTN/EVENG E
ON TUE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT CHC OF A TSTM...THOUGH DYNAMICS
WEAKENING WITH TIME...AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE AREA. LO TEMPS MON
NGT WILL RANGE FM THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. HI TEMPS ON TUE WILL
RANGE FM THE MID TO UPR 70S INLAND...TO THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S AT
THE CST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OUT TO SEA TUE NGT...WITH SGFNT DRYING
AND A PERIOD OF COOLING THEREAFTER (FM AFTR MIDNGT TUE NGT THRU WED).
MAINTAINING 30-40% POPS ERN PORTION OF THE FA TUE EVENG...15-25%
ELSEWHERE...THEN CLEARING AFTR MIDNGT...AS WINDS BECOME NW. NEAR
SEASONABLE/CLEAR-PRTLY CLOUDY WX THEN EXPECTED WED WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS...MAINLY ERN PORTION. LO TEMPS TUE NGT RANGING FM THE MID
40S NW TO THE LWR 50S SE. HI TEMPS ON WED WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFF THE NE COAST WEDS NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EWD OVER THE CNTRL-ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER COOL DAY THURS (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S) AS
FLOW REMAINS NW-W. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURS-
LATE THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL VEER THE
FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THURS-THURS NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIFTING A WARM
FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW. TRAILING COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WLY FLOW OVER THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 50S FRI. BEST
DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING SPEEDS ALOFT
AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM. WITH THE LOCAL
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER
70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FRI
NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NE
STATES THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY SAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S IN WLY FLOW. COOLER SUNDAY AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS SEWD OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW 
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SLACKEN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE HAD A BRIEF WINDOW OF IFR AT
ORF/ECG THIS MORNING, AND ACCOUNTED FOR THAT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HRS, WITH CIGS QUICKLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY 15-17Z. SOME GUSTS TO
20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE EASING AS GRADIENT SLACKENS.

OUTLOOK...SOME PATCHY FOG IS PSBL LATE TONIGHT/ TUESDAY MORNING
BUT CURRENT PROBS DO NOT POINT TO WIDESPREAD IFR. A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING WITH
A BRIEF WINDOW OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. 
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS LOW 
PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES E-NE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS 
MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST. AS SFC LOW
IS STILL SLOWLY PUSHING FARTHER OFFSHORE, SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL MID-MORNING, AND THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY (FOR SEAS AND GUSTS TO 20 KT) AND CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH
THIS AFTN. STILL NOTING SEAS OF 7-11FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT 11Z, AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THUS SCA REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT.

SFC LOW WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH 
PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-8 FT 
BY THIS AFTN. FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, IN ADVANCE OF 
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SEAS FINALLY FALL BELOW 5FT 
BY TUE MORNING. COULD HAVE A FEW GUSTS TO LOW END SCA OVER THE 
BAY/SND IN S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, BUT EXPECT 
PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS TO BE SUB-SCA. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS 
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF SCA EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT N-NWLY 
CAA SURGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER A SHORT LIVED 
SECONDARY SURGE WED NGT, QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR 
     ANZ630>632-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM






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