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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220842
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP ALONG 
THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL 
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY CHRISTMAS 
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TOODAY/... 
THIS MORNING...PCPN QUICKLY OVRSPREADING THE FA SW-NE BUT STAYING 
MAINLY EAST OF AREAS WHERE TMPS ARE AOB FREEZING...SO NO P-TYPE
ISSUES NOTED AS OF THIS WRITING. APPEARS PCPN WILL EVENTUALLY GET
TO THE NWRN CNTYS BY OR SHORTLY AFTR 12Z. GIVEN CRNT TMP/DP TMPS...
HAVE ADDED GOOCHLAND CNTY (WRN HALF MAINLY WEST OF ST RT 522 TO THE
ADVSRY). WET BULBS ACROSS THE ADVSRY AREA HOVER AOB 32 THRU THE
MORNING HRS...SO THE ZR ADVSRY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. OTHER THAN A
FEW IP AT THE ONSET... EXPECT A COLD RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
WITH TMPS STEADY IN THE 30S XCPT 40S SERN CSTL AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...LOW PRS TRACKS NE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS KEEPING A 
N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE FA AS HIGH PRS RETREATS INTO NEW ENGLAND. BEST
LIFT AND OMEGA PROGGED BTWN 16Z-00Z. POPS INCRSD TO NEAR 100% ALL 
AREAS. THUS...XPCT A COLD / WET AFTRN AHEAD AS IN-SITU WEDGE CONTS. 
PCPN ALL LIQUID AS TMPS INCH JUST ABV FREEZING ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS.
TMPS BTWN 35-40 ALONG AND W OF I95...40-45 TO THE COASTAL AREAS XCPT
U40S-L50S SERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 
THIS EVENING...SFC LOW PRS PROGGED TO TRACK NNE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA TONIGHT REACHING THE SRN NJ COAST BY 12Z TUE. BEST SPRT FOR
WDSPRD PCPN SHIFTS TOWARD THE DELMARVA. SO RAIN CHCS CONT THIS EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. TMPS STDY M30S-L40S.

OVERNIGHT...WDPSRD LL MSTR SEEN IN TSCTNS AFTR MIDNIGHT. SO ALTHOUGH 
THE STDY AND HVNST RAINS SHUD END AS THE PUSH NE...XPCT AREAS OF LGT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG THRU THE NIGHT. TMPS STDY M30S-L40S. TOTAL QPF
NEXT 24 HRS RANGE BTWN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...UP TO THREE
QUARTERS INCH ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC.

TUESDAY...THE UNSETTLED PTRN CONTINUES AS LOW PRS IS SLOW TO PULL NE 
DUE TO A STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON NIGHT...THROUGH THE 
MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. LOW LEVELS REMAIN SATURATED SO 
MAINTAINED A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG TUE. GIVEN 
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE...WENT
WITH THE COOLER GUID NMBRS. HIGHS TUE RANGE FROM THE M-U40S ALONG 
AND WEST OF I-95 TO THE M-U50S IN SERN VA/NE NC.   

TUE NIGHT / WEDNESDAY...SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON 
WED. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE FROM 
THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS SOAR 
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON 
WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS 
ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH 
IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL CAPE) ON 
WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. HIGHS WED INTO THE M-U60S TO AROUND 70 F 
(CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS WED...SHIFTING 
OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND 
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND 
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE 
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND 
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO 
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS 
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE 
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE 
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL 
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID 
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A COOL/RAINY PERIOD LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER- RUNNING PRECIP WILL TRACK S TO N LATER
THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ TAF SITE. SOME
IP/FZRA POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/
BETWEEN 12-16Z. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL 
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS 
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST 
TODAY...THEN WEAKENS TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE DELMARVA. E-NE WINDS 
WILL GENERALLY AVG 10-15 KT TODAY ON THE MIDDLE BAY AND THE 
RIVERS...AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS/LOWER BAY/CURRITUCK 
SOUND. MIGHT EVEN GET SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN 
WATERS. WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE LOWER BAY TODAY...WITH SEAS 3-4 
FT ON THE OCEAN...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT SOUTH. DID GO AHEAD AND ADD THE 
COASTAL ZONE SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES TO THE SCA AS SEAS LOOK TO REACH 
5 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH THE LOW 
LIFTING NORTH...REMAINING FROM AN E-NE DIRECTION NORTH AND TURNING 
OFFSHORE SOUTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT OUT 
AROUND 20 NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT 
HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE AN SCA ATTM. 

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE 
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SE WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO 
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. 
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY 
WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE 
THE RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND 
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE 
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT 
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL 
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN BY LATE THU. 
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>062.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM






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