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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241740
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
140 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LO PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES CSTS TODAY INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO THE
AREA FM THE OH VALLEY. UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY...MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE REGION AND JUST OFFSHR TNGT THRU
SAT...MAINTAINING DRY AUTUMN WX. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TNGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR
60S TO LWR 70S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NGT.
THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FM THE NW ON
SUN...WHILE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING
FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE UPR 60S TO
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH 
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE 
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE 
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN 
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL 
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S 
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT 
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH 
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY 
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE AREA CREATING LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. A WEAK 
UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SAT...BRINGING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.

OUTLOOK: A DRY COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN US BY
SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT NW FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS ~15-20KT. SEAS 3-5FT
(HIGHEST NORTH) WITH WAVES 3FT ON THE CHES BAY. VERT STACKED,
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TOWARDS ATLANTIC
CANADA THROUGH EARLY AFTN. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD WEST OF THE WATERS TODAY. RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SLOWLY SLACKEN TODAY AS HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCA FLAGS COME
DOWN BY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUND/BAY. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH AFOREMENTIONED SLACKENING GRADIENT. GIVEN
THAT WIND WAVES ARE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED THIS MORNING, EXPECT
SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE
SLOWEST TO RELAX OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THUS, HAVE HELD
ONTO SCA FLAGS UNTIL EARLY EVENING NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE, WITH SCA
FLAGS DROPPING FARTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTN.

A WEAK TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY, WITH SUB-SCA 
WINDS OUT OF THE NNW EXPECTED TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW SATURDAY AFTN 
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WINDS THEN VEER BACK TO THE 
NW AFTER IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT NGT/SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY A MODEST 
POST FRONTAL CAA SURGE SUNDAY, SO EXPECT WINDS TO AVERAGE AOB 15 KT, 
THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY 
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE 
E-SE BY LATE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE 
WATERS...EVENTUALLY SLIDING FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MAM






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