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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
943 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES EXITING E OF NEW ENG THIS EVE...WHILE SFC LO PRES
SLOLY DEVELOPING SE OF CHS. RA FM ECNTRL NC CONTS TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO CSTL NE NC SO FAR THIS EVE. 00Z/21 RUC
BRINGS AT LEAST SCT SHRAS NWD ACRS CSTL NE NC...MNLY E OF THE
CHOWAN RIVER...AND INTO EXTREME SE VA AFT 04-06Z/21. HAVE INCRSD
POPS A LITTLE OVR THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...WHILE LWRG
POPS TO THE N OVR THE ERN SHORES OF VA/MD. WIDESPREAD CLDNS WILL
COVER MOST OF ERN INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...THOUGH
LOWEST CIGS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF HAMPTON RDS ON S
OVR (CSTL) NE NC. 

ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS BASED
ON TRENDS AND LATEST NEAR TERM GUID. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHT ABOVE THIS MORNINGS TEMPS AWAY FROM THE BAY/OCEAN...WITH
MANY AREAS W OF I95 CORRIDOR AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW 60F. CLOSER
TO THE BAY/OCEAN...CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT...AND EXPECT IT AGAIN TONIGHT
IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST RUC SLOWER W/ EXIT OF CLDS/PCPN INVOF (SE VA/NE NC) CST SUN
MORNING...SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN TAPERING OF POPS W-E. OTRW...THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL WILL BE ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY
AREAS SEEING THE UPPER 80S...AND ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO MAKE INTO
THE LOWER 80S...AS CONDS ARE P/MSNY W...AND CLEARING (MIDDAY/AFTN)
E. 

A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. MODELS INDICATE LIMITED FORCING AND MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT AREA TO 30%...MAINLY
IN DEFERENCE TO NAM12 PRECIP DEPICTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...BUT ANY PRECIP BEYOND 04Z EXPECTED TO
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS 75-80 DEGREES.

THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE FALL THUS FAR EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY INLAND AREAS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50. A
SUNNY PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BLO 
NORMAL TEMPS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU THE 
PERIOD WITH SFC HI PRES CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OH VALLEY/NE 
STATES AND A TROF OF LO PRES LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST. THIS 
WILL LEAD TO DRY WX OVR INLAND AREAS WITH AN OCCASIONAL SLGT CHANCE 
OF RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CST CLOSER TO THE TROF. TOUGH TO 
PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AT THIS POINT SO WILL STICK TO 20% POPS FOR 
NOW. IN GENERAL 12Z GFS KEEPS ANY PRECIP S OF THE AREA WHILE ECMWF 
BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO NE NC/SE VA BY WED. HI TEMPS WILL AVG IN THE 
MID TO UPR 70S WHILE LOWS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 50S TO LWR 60S OVR 
MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW 
ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS TURN  
TO NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE 
COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR STRATUS TO ALL BUT RIC AND 
SOME IFR IS EXPECTED AT SBY AND ECG. THE WEATHER IMPROVES BY LATE 
MORNING TO MIDDAY SUNDAY. 

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLGT TO LOW CHCS FOR 
SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 
SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
8 PM UPDATE...SEAS AND WAVES AT CAPE CHARLES BUOY AND FIRST
LANDING RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGN OF SUBSIDING.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS SOON AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WAVES DROPPING BELOW SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THE
SCA EXPIRATION OF 10 PM SEEMED TOO SOON FOR THAT AND ADJUSTED
THAT TO 1 AM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFC HI PRES STRETCHES DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC
CST TNGT AS LO PRES PASSES OFFSHORE. AS FAR AS HEADLINES...SCA OVR
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WILL CONTINUE THRU 10 PM DUE TO 4 FT WAVES.
HIGH SEAS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVR THE CSTL WTRS DUE TO PROLONGED
ERLY/NERLY FETCH. WILL CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE INTO
TOMORO...ENDING THEM FM N TO S THRU THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS NLY. A
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE SUN/ERLY MON...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO STAY SUB-SCA POST FRNTAL DUE TO A WEAK GRADIENT AND
CAA. SECONDARY SURGE AND HI PRES BLDG N OF THE AREA MON NGT MAY
BRING WINDS JUST SHY OF 20 KT OVR THE BAY...BUT WILL CAP AT AROUND
15 KT FOR NOW. FOR TUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES AND SEAS
AND SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING TIDES INVOF MIDDLE BAY (SPECIFICALLY LEWISETTA
VA...CAMBRIDGE AND BISHOPS HEAD MD)...WHERE FCST LEVELS FOR TIDES
OVNNGT TO FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR THRESHOLDS. TIDAL DEPARTURES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ATTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM/WRS
NEAR TERM...ALB/WRS
SHORT TERM...WRS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS/LSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...











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