000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231300
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
900 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION 
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS NE NC/SE VA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LVL
VORT MAX SLIDING UP THE NC COAST. EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIP TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE AND MID-LVL ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE
ACCOMPANIED BY PWATS AROUND 1.7IN CREATING CONDITIONS THAT WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SVR WX HOWEVER AN ISO DAMAGING WING GUST IS PSBL
(ESPECIALLY FOR NW AREAS) AS SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF. DON'T EXPECT IT TO RAIN THE ENTIRE DAY
HOWEVER COVERAGE IS ENUF TO WARRANT LIKELY (70%) POPS. BEST TIMING
FOR HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVNG HRS AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE MID ATLANTIC SITS UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPR-LVL JET STREAK. HI TEMPS GENRLY IN THE
LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ERLY FRI AS THE COLD FRNT
ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLR
OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN (THOUGH KEEPING A CHC FOR SHWRS
OVER ERN AREAS WITH THE UPR-LVL TROF STILL WEST OF THE AREA) AS
SFC FLOW BECOMES NWRLY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND
TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE LO TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SFC HI
PRES BLDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SAT LEADING TO A MSTLY SNY SKY AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS ONLY IN THE LO TO MID 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH 
PRESSURE DROPPING NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF 
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ALOFT, CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE 
NORTHEAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NE SUNDAY, ALLOWING
FOR MODEST HGT RISES ALOFT, AND WITH IT A GENERAL INCREMENTAL
RAMPING UP OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOW (SLIGHT CHANCE) POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL DAY
AFTN/EVENING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION AND A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO THE WEST.

BERMUDA HIGH/SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN RELOADS FOR THE MID TO LATTER
POTION OF THE WEEK, AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. RAINFALL
OPPORTUNITIES WILL PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN MON-WED, WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS
BY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GRADUAL LWRG OF CIGS INTO THE MRNG HRS ACRS THE FA. SCT-BKN ST AOB 
1KFT BEGINNING TO SPREAD NWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NC...XPCD TO ARRIVE 
FM THE S THROUGH THE ERY/MID MRNG HRS. ADDITIONALLY...AREA OF 
SHRAS/FEW EMBEDDED T INVOF PDMNT OF VA/NC WILL BE MOVING VRY SLOLY 
TO THE E IN THE NEXT SVRL HRS. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS XPCD ACRS THE FA 
INTO THE EVE HRS ALG W/ INCRSG COVERAGE OF SHRAS/ISOLD-SCT T. PTNTL 
FOR IFR VSBYS IN HVY RA. RA SLO TO END THIS EVE...ALG W/ ONLY 
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS. GENLY (ANY) CIGS FRI VFR (ABV 3KFT) ALG 
W/ DVLPG GUSTY NW WNDS (TO 25-30 KT) BY AFTN. WNDS SLO TO SUBSIDE 
INTO SAT. LO PROB MVFR CIGS INVOF CST FRI NGT INTO SAT AS COASTAL LO 
PRES SLO TO DVLP (OFFSHORE). OTRW...VFR CONDS XPCD SAT THROUGH
MON.

&&

.MARINE...
PREVAILING S FLO ATTM...AND XPCD INTO TNGT AHD OF NEXT CDFNT. 
MARGINAL WINDSPEEDS FOR (LO END) SCAS (MDLS LWR SPDS LTR TDA AS 
WIDESPREAD RA ENTERS THE WTRS)...SEAS ON THE OCN GRADUALLY 
BUILDING/APPROACHING 5 FT. CDFNT CROSSES THE WTRS FRI MRNG...TO BE 
FOLLOWED BY WINDSHIFT TO NW AND INCRS IN SPDS (DUE TO MDT LLVL CAA) 
TO SOLID SCAS (20-25 KT...GUSTS TO 30 KT). THESE CONDS TO LAST INTO 
SAT AS CSTL LO PRES (OFFSHR) IS SLO TO DVLP. GFS/ECMWF IN GENL 
AGREEMENT OVR DVLPMNT AND LOCATION OF THAT STM OF NJ/SRN NEW ENG FRI 
NGT INTO SAT. THE LO IS SLO TO LIFT TO THE NE SUN INTO 
MON...RESULTING IN ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (LASTLY OVR THE NRN OCN 
WTRS BY LT IN THE WKND). ONLY CHG TO HEADLINES WILL BE TO EXTEND THE 
SCA FOR THE NRN OCN WTRS THROUGH FRI (22Z/24). THERE WILL BE A LULL 
IN SPDS (FM LT TDA/TNGT INTO FRI MRNG) BEFORE PASSAGE OF CDFNT SO 
HOLD OFF ON ADDING AN ADDITIONAL HEADLINE TO THE BAY/SRN OCN FOR NOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT 
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS/DAP
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB