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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202056
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO 
GUSTY SW WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND MODEST WAA. HOWEVER...THE CLIPPER 
FRONT IS STILL YET TO PUSH THRU THE REGION...WHICH WILL BRING A 
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL 
PUSH THRU THE REGION AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS A POTENT UPPER 
SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO NEW ENGLAND. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY 
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS 
WILL FALL OFF BEHIND THE FRONT AS CAA ENSUES. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES 
DROP OFF 50-60 METERS THIS EVENING THRU EARLY FRI 
MORNING...RESULTING IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S INLAND 
TO LOW-MID 30S NEAR THE COAST. NW WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 MPH 
INLAND...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS FINALLY EJECTS EWD
OFF THE NE COAST AS A STRONG 150+ KT UPPER JET EXITS THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG ~1035MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
OH VALLEY EARLY FRI BEFORE CENTERING OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT. CAA WANES FRI AFTERNOON...BUT H85 TEMPS WILL HAVE
REACHED -8 TO -10C (-1 TO -2 STD DEV). THE RESULT WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO
MID 40S SE (-2 STD DEV OR NEARLY 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). SOME
RECORD LO MAX READINGS MAY BE IN DANGER. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
20-25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES LATE. SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT. CALM-
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND. UPPER 20S- LOW 30S NEAR THE
COAST. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SAT AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPS AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES. H85 TEMPS ALSO RECOVER QUICKLY FRI NIGHT-
SAT...WARMING TO AROUND +6C BY LATE SAT. HIGHS WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER...WARMING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE (STILL
10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL). 

MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS SAT AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. H85
HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE SAT WITH FLOW ON THE WRN PERIPHERY
TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. MID- UPPER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS. WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE TN/KY VALLEYS LATE SAT
NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO THE SE STATES. SHORTWAVE EJECTS NEWD FROM
THE SRN PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...LIFTING OVER THE
CNTRL APPALACHIANS SUN. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF THE PRECIP...BUT AS IS TYPICAL WITH OVERRUNNING EVENTS
AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPSTREAM 120+ KT UPPER JET...WILL KEEP POPS
EARLY SUN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA. MAIN BRUNT OF
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE/PRECIP QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON-EVENING. DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION.
OVERRUNNING COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUN
AFTERNOON. PER GEFS STD ANOMALIES...H85 MOISTURE FLUX IS PROGGED
AT +3 TO +4 STD DEV WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES.
SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN. AS A
RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HAVE RETAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THRU THE REGION. BRUNT OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY PUSH OFFSHORE
SUN NIGHT AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SUN WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S NW TO MID 60S SE. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AS TEMPS ONLY FALL A FEW DEGS INTO THE LOW 50S
NW TO UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA. 
GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY 
APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED 
WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT 
DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT 
WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS.  

KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG 
THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S.

HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A
QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING 
TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY 
U40S-L50S. 

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLDFRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W THIS AFTN...CROSSING THE
REGION TONGHT. SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE COLDFRONT CLEARS THE COAST THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS TURNING NW AND REMAINING GUSTY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AND SAT...MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GUSTY SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT WILL DMNSH A BIT THIS EVENING 
BEFORE BCMG W-NW AFTR MIDNITE AS STRNG CAA SETS IN POST FROPA. 
LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THE SURGE (15-20 KTS) LASTS TILL ARND 18Z FRI 
ACROSS THE BAY AND SND SO HAVE XNNDD THE SCA HEADLINES ACROSS THOSE 
AREAS SVRL MORE HRS. CSTL WTRS A BIT DIFFERENT AS WNDS ARND 25 KTS 
SHUD DMNSH AFTR 12Z. SEAS HAVING TROUBLE REACHING 5 FT ACROSS SRN 
CSTL WTRS AND MAY ONLY REACH THOSE VALUES OUT NR 20 NM. THUS...WILL 
LET THE SCA ON CSTL WTRS EXPIRE LATE TONITE/ERLY FRI THERE. 

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI NIGHT THRU
SAT NIGHT THEN MOVES WELL OFFSHORE SUNDAY RESULTING IN WINDS AND
SEAS BLO SCA LVLS. NEXT CHC FOR SCA'S WILL COME LATE SUN INTO MON AS 
SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW.    
 
TONIGHTS TIDES PROGGED ABOUT A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT 
BELOW NORMAL. TIDES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ638-652-654-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...MPR






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