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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 050957
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
557 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
CAROLIN'S. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WILL
SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY RESULTING IN A PROLONGED NORTHEAST FLOW. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL INTO
THE CAROLINAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST EAST OF ACCOMACK THIS MORNING WERE MOVING
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS HAMPTON ROADS AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA
AND NORTHEAST NC BETWEEN 09-12Z. DO NOT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE TOO
WIDESPREAD BUT DO PROGRESS CHANCE POPS FROM THE SOUTHEAST VA AND
THE NC COAST WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST NC
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON THE OVERALL COVERAGE...SO HAVE CAPED POPS AT AROUND 35
PERCENT. LOOKING AT THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX...DO BELIEVE SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LOWER END OF EASTERN
SHORE...SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAR
WEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD...BUT DO BELIEVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS EMPORIA AND LAKE GASTON LATER
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR AND
MOISTURE TRENDS TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS AND HOW FAR WEST IT DOES. FOR NOW OVERALL MOISTURE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS LIMITED.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS ONCE AGAIN AS
STRATUS BECOMES WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF RIC.
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MIGHT SEE A FEW MORE BREAKS.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST AS
PRESSURE RISES CONTINUE WITH ~1025 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND BUILDING SOUTH. SEAS WILL BUILD THIS MORNING RESULTING IN
ROUGH SURF AND A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENT TODAY AND INTO
SUNDAY.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY RATHER MILD IN THE LOWER 80S WITH A FEW INLAND
AREAS PERHAPS REACHING THE MID 80S DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW THE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED OVER MUCH SOUTHEASTERN VA...NORTHEAST NC AND
EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SE ALLOWING NE WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY (TO 25-30
MPH) NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL VA
AND NORTHEAST NC REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
RATHER SCATTERED AND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT. THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL HINGS ON DEVELOPMENT OF WK LOW PRES
INVOF SE CONUS COAST. COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS REMAIN HUMID THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER AIR OVR NRN COUNTIES
DURING THE WEEKEND...SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY OVER THE
PIEDMONT FROM RIC NORTH AND WEST. 

BY MON...GRADUAL EROSION OF THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED...LEADING
TO A BETTER PROB FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
A 20-30% IN SE VA/NE NC.

HI TEMPS LOW 80S...AND LOW TO MID 80S MON. MOST LOW TEMPS IN THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER DIFFUSE WX PATTERN TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
INTO THE TN VALLEY THUS KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON THE
FRINGE OF PERIODIC CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL
AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC. FAIRLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS ON TUE FINALLY
GIVE WAY TO MORE S-SW WINDS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-UP DURING THE MID-WEEK
TIMEFRAME. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TUE-THU AND LOWS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S MON NIGHT-THU NIGHT. LONGWAVE TROUGHING
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE THU/FRI ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES
AREAS AND SHOULD PUSH A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOIST NE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MVFR STRATUS
WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLE IFR
CIGS AT KRIC AND KSBY BETWEEN 11Z-13Z. THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE
SLOW TO BREAK UP UNTIL MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTN...ESPECIALLY THE SE
COASTAL SITES WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THRU THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE SE. WINDS WILL ALSO
GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THEN IMPROVED CONDITIONS
TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTN OR EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 KT TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO
30 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. SEAS WILL
TOP OUT BETWEEN 5-6 FT (PERHAPS UP TO 7 FT OUTER NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS)...WITH WAVES REACHING 4-5 FT ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
(HIGHEST AT THE MOUTH). CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING OR
TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND...AND ERN VA RIVERS
SO THAT SCA FLAGS CAN END. STILL EXPECTING WAVES TO REMAIN AROUND
4 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY INTO SUN MORNING...WITH SEAS
LINGERING AROUND 5 FT. SEAS WILL BE SLOWEST TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS ON SUNDAY AS SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE SCA SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES INTO SUNDAY AFTN. AFTER
THAT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO START NEXT WEEK.

IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH NEARSHORE WAVES WILL ENHANCE 
THE RIP CURRENT THREAT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND
0.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
TIDAL GAUGES NEARING/REACHING MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES
BAY AT LEWISETTA AND BISHOPS HEAD THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY ATTM. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME FOR NEXT SHIFT TO ASSESS THE THREAT WITH NEWER GUIDANCE. BOTH
OCEAN CITY AND SEWELLS PT APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JAO
SHORT TERM...ALB/JAO
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



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