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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182338
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
738 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WK SFC CDFNT SETTLES THROUGH THE FA THIS EVE...THEN IS S OF THE
RGN BY AFT MDNGT AS MID LVL S/W EXITS OFF THE CST. ONGOING ISOLD
SHRAS INVOF THE MD EASTERN SHORE (DORCHESTER COUNTY) AND FARMVILLE
IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT S-SW THE REMAINDER
OF THIS EVENING. RADAR RETURNS ARE VERY LIGHT AND ANY PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND 0.01 INCHES AT BEST. OTRW...MOST
AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR VA AND THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE WILL BE
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC.
WNDS VRB AND MNLY LGT THIS EVE...BECOMING NNE AFT MDNGT...AND A
LTL BREEZY NR THE CST (ESP LT). LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M/U50S INLAND
TO L60S RIGHT NR THE CST IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER PD OF ONSHORE WNDS FM FRI INTO SUN AS LARGE SFC HI PRES
BUILDS FM SE CANADA ACRS NEW ENG. ALONG W/ THE NE WNDS (BREEZY AT
THE CST) WILL BE PDS OF CLDNS...ESP FRI THROUGH SAT MRNG. WHILE 
NO TRIGGER FOR PCPN ACRS THE RGN...NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRAS OR
DRIZZLE DUE TO THE ENE SFC WNDS. 

BY SAT AFTN...THE MARITIME FLO WEAKENS...PTNTLLY ALLOWING DRYING
OVR THE FA. HWVR...SFC LO PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE GA/FL CST FRI
NGT...IS FORECAST TO SLOLY TRACK NE OFF THE SE CONUS CST. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MDLS WRT THIS SFC LO (NAM SLOWER THAN
GFS W/ ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT). RIGHT NOW...ECMWF/GFS/NAM KEEP BULK
OF THAT SYSTEMS MOISTURE TO THE E. WILL BRING INCRSG CLDNS TO CSTL
SECTIONS OF THE FA BEGINNING SAT...WHILE KEEPING OTHER PLACES AT
WORST PCLDY. BY SUN...THE LO XPCD TO TRACK AWAY FM THE
CST...RESULTING IN DRY/SEASONABLY WARM CONDS OVR THE FA.

HI TEMPS FRI MNLY IN THE M/U70S. LO TEMPS FRI NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE U70S AT THE CST TO L/M80S INLAND. HI
TEMPS SUN RANGING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH 
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS 
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN 
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE 
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP 
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE 
RATHER LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT 
FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF 
THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. 
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST 
COVERAGE OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT 
WILL BE THE DRY AIR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS 
THE COOLEST/DRIEST AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE 
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF 
THE ERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER 
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES-WEDS. COOL CANADIAN 
HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH 
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED 
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING 
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE 
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER 
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S 
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY 
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...VFR SHOULD HOLD FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS 
WITH BASES FROM 5 TO 8 KFT WERE OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR 
SE. A COUPLE OF SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE PRESENT BUT SHOULD NOT 
AFFECT THE TAF SITES. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN 
ACRS NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS WITH A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER AT 
SBY AND RIC. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BECOMING 
PRIMARILY NE ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND AROUND 10 
KNOTS ON FRIDAY. 

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT 
CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY. 

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES/DISSIPATES OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AS 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES. WEAK PRESSURE 
GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED ELY WINDS OVER THE WATER...AVG 5-10 KT. WAVES 
GENERALLY 1-2 FT (LOCALLY UP TO 3 IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY) AND SEAS 
3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES NELY TONIGHT AND FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH SPEEDS REACHING 20 
KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRI AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF STRONG SFC 
HIGH PRESSURE...NE FLOW AND WARM WATERS MAY RESULT IN SCA WINDS OVER 
THE COASTAL WATERS. CAPPED AT 20 KT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL 
BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE FRI...FIRST IN THE NRN WATERS...THEN SPREADING 
SWD OVER THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS FRI EVENING-NIGHT. SCA 
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI THRU FRI 
NIGHT (THIRD PERIOD). IF FLOW IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST...6-7 FT 
SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 4 FT WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE 
BAY. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NE COAST SAT AS LOW 
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST. THE LOW 
WILL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THRU THE WEEKEND...LOCATING OFF THE 
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS ARE 
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BASED ON THE GRADIENT WINDS...BUT SPATIAL AND 
TIMING DIFFERENCES WRT LOW PRESSURE LEND LITTLE CONFIDENCE. SEAS 
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BUT FLOW WILL 
BRIEFLY BECOME S-SELY LATE SAT-SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE BREAKS 
DOWN OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDS. 

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT 
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING. BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER WARM WATERS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF SCA 
CONDS THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR 
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR 
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/BMD
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






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