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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 312003
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
403 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID 
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA 
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
PIEDMONT...WITH A 1005MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC OUTER 
BANKS...WHICH HAS FORMED IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING 
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGS BACK OVER 
THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND THIS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY FEATURE INTO 
SAT. THE LEADING WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL TO THE NE TONIGHT...AS 
THE STRONGER WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SSE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. 
OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH 
CLOUDS (ONCE AFTERNOON CU DISSIPATE) AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN A 
REGION OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. 12Z HIGH-RES DATA DOES 
INDICATE SOME MOISTURE COULD BACK INTO THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE LATE 
TONIGHT SEEMINGLY RELATED TO A NE FETCH ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD 
CONVEYOR BELT. A HIGH CHC TO LOW END-LIKELY (50-60%) PROBABILITY HAS 
BEEN INCLUDED LATE TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD 
DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S LATE THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD BE THE 
EVENTUAL OVERNIGHT LOWS AS TEMPERATURES BECOME STEADY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS SIMILAR. A STRONG SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE 
CAROLINAS SAT. GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH RESPECT TO A CLOSED 
UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MIDDAY SAT...WITH SURFACE 
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE OUTER BANKS SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE SURFACE 
LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NE LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH 
~1032MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW THROUGH SUN 
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SUBSIDENCE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE 
AREA (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ERN SHORE AND FAR SW PIEDMONT) 
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT. THE CHC OF RAIN THEN INCREASES SAT AFTERNOON 
ACROSS NE NC/SE VA AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. OVERALL QPF 
AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25IN. THE HIGHEST 
AMOUNTS (0.25-0.50IN) SHOULD BE ACROSS THE ERN SHORE WHERE THE 
DURATION OF RAIN SHOULD BE LONGEST.

A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WIND (25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ~45MPH) IS 
EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND 
STRONG CAA COMMENCES. AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE 
ALONG THE ATLC BEACHES AND LWR CHES BAY (SEE COASTAL FLOODING 
SECTION BELOW). A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER AT LEAST SOME OF 
THE COASTAL ZONES SAT NIGHT FOR A 6-10 HOUR PERIOD. THIS WILL REMAIN 
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. 

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE 
DEPARTING WAVE. THE SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING 
(ALTHOUGH A BAND OF SC COULD DEVELOP OFF THE BAY SUNDAY DUE TO THE 
COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER SSTS ~62-64F). THE SURFACE HIGH OF 
CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST 
BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON 
TO DATE. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 N/NE...TO THE MID 
50S S. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE SEASON SHOULD OCCUR LATE 
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING AS LOWS DROP TO 28-32 OVER THE INTERIOR 
COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY 
LINGER CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 
30S.

THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY...WITH SSW FLOW RESUMING ACROSS THE 
REGION. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S UNDER A 
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY GENERAL MODERATION OF 
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE 
SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH RESULTANT 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAXIMA TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S TO 
LOWER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS MODERATING 
BACK INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WED AND THU MORNING.

ALOFT, UPPER PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER RIDGING, WHICH 
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AND SLIP OFFSHORE LATE WED/THU. NORTHERN 
STREAM DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER 
GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK 
SURFACE FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA BY LATE WED NGT/THURSDAY. ONCE 
AGAIN, THE BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS LOOK TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE 
NORTH/NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, SUSPECT THE FROPA WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE 
LITTLE MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. WILL KEEP POP NO HIGHER THAN 20% 
FOR WED/THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURE POST 
FRONTAL LATE IN THE INTO THE 60S, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS NEAR CLIMO 
VALUES FRIDAY AND SAT MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFF
THE COAST WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE
SEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE MOMENT...SEEING LOTS OF
CU...3K - 5K FT...ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW LEVEL NE FLOW PROVIDING
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY FOR COAST AREAS. MUCH OF
THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE
THE DAY TIME HEATING KICKS IN. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR LEVELS TOWARD SUNRISE SAT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUAL INCREASE
THROUGH 18Z TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS.

AFTER 18Z...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS FOR COASTAL
SITES...EXPECT RIC...WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
THE RAIN REACHING IFR LEVELS. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE
COAST AFTER 6Z AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 12Z...BUT
THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ONCE THE STORM IS GONE...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE WINDS THIS AFTN 10-15KT. SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL FRONT ORIENTED 
OFFSHORE. WINDS HV INCREASED TO LOW END/MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA THIS 
AFTN AND HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVY OVER THE LOWER BAY AND SOUND 
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR THE MID 
EVENING HOURS INTO EARLY SAT AS SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER NE AWAY FROM 
THE AREA AND FARTHER OFFSHORE...TO A POSITION OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND 
COAST BY LATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WL BE RAMPING UP AGAIN TOWARDS SUNRISE SAT MORNING, AS LOW 
PRESSURE DEVELOPS RAPIDLY NEAR HATTERAS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS INCREASE 
AS THIS LOW PRES STRENGTHENS OFF THE NC CST SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO 
A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. SCA OVR NRN CSTL WTRS (ADDED 
PARRAMORE TO CAPE CHARLES LGT TO EXISTING SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 
SATURDAY BEFORE THE GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT SATURDAY NIGHT. A 
PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS IS EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA, WHILE CONDITIONS 
ELSEWHERE OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES LOOK TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY 
ENOUGH SAT AFTN TO WARRANT GOING DIRECTLY TO THE GALE HEADLINE. 

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS
IF THE SURGE COINCIDES WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 11 PM EST 
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR 
     ANZ630>634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR 
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ




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