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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 051154
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
654 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
MODERATING...MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS SLOWER EVOLUTION 
OF THE UPCOMING SYSTEM. START TIMES OF THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN 
DELAYED. ADDITIONALLY...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR SE VA/NE NC 
WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR A 3-5HR PERIOD OF SLEET EXISTS LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARNINGS REMAIN AS IS.

LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE SE US RIDGE REMAINING RATHER
STUBBORN...WHICH IS KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE WELL W OF THE REGION
BACK OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THE RESULT OF THE RIDGE HOLDING
STRONG WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LONGER PERIOD OF 'WARMER' MID-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SLEET. AS A 
RESULT...SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK ACROSS 
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ACCUMULATION (PRIMARILY SLEET) HAS 
BEEN INCREASED OVER SE PORTIONS WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER INTO 
THE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...1035MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER 
THE PLAINS STATES. COLDER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS SPREADING EWD 
ACROSS PA...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A CHANGE TO SN OVER NRN MD AS OF 6 
AM. LOCALLY TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW...TO THE LOW 
50S.

A STRONG ANTI-CYCLONIC JET REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE MID MISS VLY 
THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA AND WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AS A 
STRONG TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. IT IS 
AT THIS TIME THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND RRQ FORCING WILL 
BE IDEALIZED, AS STRONG PV ANOMALY RIDES ACROSS THE AREA THIS 
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FORCING SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRIGGER 
THE ONSET OF WINTRY PCPN FROM NNW-SSE ACROSS THE AREA.

CRITICAL H85-7 THICKNESS VALUES (SUB 1540M) ARE NOT REALIZED UNTIL 
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TONIGHT OVER NRN HALF OF THE AREA. 
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST UVM WILL BE EXITING THE COAST. 
OVERALL, UTILIZING ROEBBER SLR FORECASTING TOOL ALONG WITH LOCAL 
THICKNESS CHART, FORECAST SLR VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR MUCH OF 
THE DAY (PERHAPS AS LOW AS 4:1-8:1). THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT 
THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET (WHICH WILL EAT INTO 
SNOWFALL TOTALS)...AND THAT MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE 'WARM' 
DURING THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. 
BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE, HAVE CONTINUED WITH A STRIPE OF 3-5" OF 
WET SNOW/SLEET ALONG A LINE FROM PALMYRA, VA TO TAPPAHANNOCK AND 
SALISBURY, MD. THIS IS BORDERED BY A BAND OF 2-3" FOR OTHER PORTIONS 
OF THE NW PIEDMONT...NRN NECK...NORTHERN RIC SUBURBS AND REMAINDER 
OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. CURRENTLY 1-2" OF SLEET/SNOW IS 
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE RIC METRO /TRI-CITIES 
DOWN THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS...WITH AROUND 1" ALONG THE HIGHWAY 58 
CORRIDOR OVER CENTRAL VA INTO THE PIEDMONT.

WINTRY PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF THU EVENING...AS TOP DOWN DRYING ENSUES 
W/DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY 
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ADVISORIES WILL RUN THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH THE 
SE PORTION LINGERING THROUGH 3 AM WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO 
ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM.

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST FRI MORNING WITH CONFLUENCE ALOFT OVER 
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG 1030+MB ARCTIC HIGH 
PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER THE REGION FRI. COLD FRONT LOCATES 
OFFSHORE...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. BEST MOISTURE GETS 
SHUNTED OFFSHORE IN INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE 
DRY CONDITIONS...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS
CONSENSUS ATTEMPTS TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE 25-30 RANGE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...H85 TEMPS ~-8C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER THE INTERIOR MD ERN
SHORE. WILL SIDE WITH THE LATER REASONING GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW
INTO MARCH. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION FRI
NIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COLD
FRI NIGHT WITH LOW GENERALLY MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...WITH 10-15
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR S-CENTRAL VA TO THE ERN SHORE. ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SWLY RETURN
FLOW COMMENCES...RESULTING IN MODERATING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
TEMPS. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND SUN...BUT
GUIDANCE RUNNING IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. TRENDED TOWARD
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S INLAND AND LOW
TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOING CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS/CMC IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN
DRY WX FM SAT NGT THRU AT LEAST MON NGT AT THIS TIME..AS HI PRES
WILL BE OVR THE AREA. THERE IS THEN A HINT OF LO PRES MOVNG NE OUT
OF THE GULF AND ACRS THE REGION TUE THRU WED. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
SLGT CHC OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE RDGS THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR
20S TO UPR 30S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 40S TO UPR
50S...MAYBE INTO THE 60S ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FRNTAL BNDRY LOCATED OVR NE NC CONTINUES TO SLIDE
S...WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS N OF THE FRNT ACROSS THE FA. LO CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE COMMONPLACE THIS MORNG AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THE
RAIN MIXES WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS MORNG AND THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SLEET/SNOW FM NW TO NE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE DAY. IFR/LIFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH THE PCPN.
TWO TO FOUR INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT RIC AND SBY
WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OR LESS AT THE SE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FM THE N MUCH OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PCPN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
VFR CONDS RETURN. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT IS LOCATED NR THE NC/VA BORDER ERLY THIS MORNG...AND 
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE S THRU MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER ALL 
WTRS...INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS BY THE MIDDAY/AFTN HRS. ALSO 
HOISTED A GALE WARNG FOR THE SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS UP 
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENG AND OVRNGT. WAVES OVER THE CHES BAY 
WILL BLD TO 3-5 FT...WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS BLDNG TO 6-9 FT. ALL 
MARINE HEADLINES END DURING THE DAY FRI AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE 
AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. BENIGN MARINE CONDS CONTINUE INTO THE 
WEEKEND WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST 
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT 
     EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ065-066-079>082-084-086>094-100.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-074>076.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT 
     EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ060>062-067>073-077-078-083-085-099.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST 
     FRIDAY FOR VAZ095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...SAM/TMG
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






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