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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220606
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
106 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ADJUSTED GRIDS A BIT BASED ON CRNT TRENDS FOR THE ERLY MORNING
UPDATE. MIN TEMPS HAVE BASICALY BEEN REACHED AND HAVE SHOWN SIGNS
OF RISING PAST FEW HRS SINCE THE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN. RAIN
COVERAGE QUICKLY EXPANDING AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS ERN NC AND INTO
SRN VA SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE POPS THRU 4 AM AND XPANDED THE RAIN
FARTHER NORTH. ALSO NOT THAT WRN PIEDMONT TEMPS ARE ABV FREEZING
(34 @ LKU...38 @ FVX)...HOWEVER WET BULB TMPS HOVERING ARND 32 SO
XPCT PCPN TO BE A RAIN/SLEET MIX AS IT BEGINS LATER ON. FREEZING 
RAIN WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE MIX TOWARDS SUNRISE SO CRNT ADVSRY
REMAINS IN PLACE. TMPS STDY OR SLOWLY RISING FROM CRNT VALUES...
MAINLY IN THE 30S. 

PVS DSCN:
WEDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO
ERN CANADA. THE NORMALLY COLDER CNTYS WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR 32
DEGREES THRU 15Z OR SO AS THE PCPN OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE FA.
EXPECT A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN MOST AREAS JUST AFTER
12Z EXCEPT FOR AREAS IN THE ADVISORY WHERE A PERIOD OF ZR SHUD
CONT THRU AT LEAST 15Z BEFORE TMPS INCH ABV 32 F. AREAS FROM
CAROLINE/NRN HALF OF NRN NECK CNTYS ON EAST TO DORCHESTER/WICOMICO
MD MAY START OFF AS A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THEN QUICKLY GO OVR TO
RAIN. RAIN THEN BECOMES WIDESPREAD MON AFTERNOON AS THE BULK OF
LIFT/MSTR TRACKS ACROSS THE FA. A RATHER COLD RAIN AS TMPS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL VA...40-45
EAST TOWARD THE ERN SHORE & SERN CHES BAY...M40S-L50S NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...WITH STRONG SSW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES MON
NIGHT...THROUGH THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES WED NIGHT. BULK OF LIFT
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NE OF THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SATURATED SO WILL MAINTAIN A CHC FOR RAIN WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG MENTIONED LATER MON NIGHT/TUE. GIVEN AN OVERRUNNING
PATTERN WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE E/NE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLEST OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUE (CLOSEST TO THE ECWMF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE). HIGHS
TUE RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S ALONG/WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID-
UPPER 50S IN NE NC. SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE REGION
LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM SECTORED ON
WED. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW TRACKING NNE
FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WED. DEW PTS
SOAR INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR AFTN/EVENING
TSTMS ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL (HIGH SHEAR BUT MINIMAL
CAPE) ON WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR SUBSEQUENT CHANGES. HIGHS WED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 F (CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
WED...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATER WED EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO
CHRISTMAS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND 
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE 
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND 
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO 
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS 
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE 
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE 
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL 
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID 
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
NE INTO THE AREA AT 00Z. CEILINGS IN TO 5KFT TO 10KFT RANGE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SC COAST ALONG
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING SOUTH WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR A
COOL/RAINY PERIOD MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
VIS/CIGS EXPECTED. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH...OVER-RUNNING PRECIP
WILL TRACK S TO N MONDAY MORNING... EVENTUALLY REACHING EVERY AKQ
TAF SITE. MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF IP/FZRA AT KRIC...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. HOWEVER...SOME IP/FZRA
POSSIBLE AT SMALLER AIRPORTS W/NW OF KRIC /E.G. KLKU/KFVX/ MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL 
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS 
AND VISIBILITIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
7 PM UPDATE...HAVE RAISED SCA...MAINLY FOR INCREASING
SEAS...ACROSS THE SRN COASTAL WATERS FROM 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 03Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS IN THIS
UPDATE.

     AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...LO PRES REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVR THE
NE STATES TNGT AS LO PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CST. THE LO WILL
TRACK UP THE CAROLINA CST ON MON. DESPITE SOME WAA...WITH NE FLOW
AND A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...THINK WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE FOR BOTH THE SRN BAY AND SOUND. THEREFORE DECIDED
TO HOIST A SCA FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THINK WINDS WILL BE QUITE
CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS OVR THE NRN BAY AND OCEAN AS WELL...BUT
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY THERE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND WILL ISSUE
HAZARD NEXT SHIFT IF NEC. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE 3-4 FT...WITH SOME
SEAS UP TO 5 FT PSBL OVR SRN CST WTRS MON EVENG. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LO WEAKENS ON TUE AS A STRONG COLD FRNT APPROACHES
FM THE W AND WINDS SLOWLY BCM SELY. SCA WINDS EXPECTED BY WED OVR
ALL WTRS EXCEPT THE RIVERS. THE FRNT CROSSES THE REGION WED NGT
INTO THU MORNG...WITH SCA CONDS CONTINUING POST FRNTAL INTO THU.
SEAS WILL BLD TO 5-8 FT WED INTO THU BEFORE SUBSIDING THU NGT.
WAVES OVR THE BAY WILL REACH 3-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON 
     EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049-060-061.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS 
     EVENING FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST 
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST 
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS/WRS






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