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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010252
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
952 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND MOVE 
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY  
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND RE-DEVELOP OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST 
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEC TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID SLOW DOWN THE
INCREASING CLOUDS TNGT...BUT STILL EXPECTING LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OVER THE SW US WILL TRACK
EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM W-E AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S THIS EVENING...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS
CLOUD COVER INCREASES. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE ERN SHORE WHERE THE
SKY WILL BE CLEAR LONGER ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS/LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY 
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY 
NIGHT...BEFORE RE-ORGANIZING OFF THE NJ COAST MIDDAY MONDAY. 
LOCALLY...THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD WITH A LOW CHC FOR -SN/IP ACROSS 
THE FAR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT AMOUNT TO 
ANYTHING MEASURABLE GIVEN WEAK LIFT...BUT A 20% POP WILL BE 
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT FOR NOW. THE SYSTEM ACTUALLY LIFTS 
BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...SO AREAS OF SRN VA/NE NC SHOULD 
SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW 50S WITHOUT MUCH CHC FOR ANY PCPN. 
FARTHER N...HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S.

DEEPER MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE W LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO 
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES SRN IN/OH. HOWEVER...THE 
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY BELOW 800MB...SO WILL ONLY HAVE CHC POPS INTO 
EARLY EVENING FOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. PARTIAL THICKNESSES 
SUPPORT RAIN THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR 
INITIALLY...THE ONSET OF PCPN COULD BE A MIX OF -RA/IP. MOISTURE 
STEADILY INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POPS W OF I-95 
AFTER 03Z...STEADILY INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS AFTER 
09Z. THE SURFACE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS 
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE LOW TRACKING N 
OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SHOULD OCCUR IN THE 
EVENING...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATING TEMPERATURES RANGING 
FROM THE UPPER 40S NW...TO LOW/MID 50S SE BY 12Z MONDAY.

LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MOST OF THE AREA 
(ASIDE FROM THE FAR NW) THROUGH 15Z MONDAY...WITH A QUICK DRYING 
TREND COMMENCING FROM W-E THEREAFTER. BY AFTERNOON...ONLY CHC POPS 
WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THE ERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WITH THE SKY 
BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY OVER INTERIOR VA/NC. THE DAY WILL 
BEGIN WARM...AND CAA WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...SO HIGHS 
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S FAR NW...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS 
MOST OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER NW FLOW PREVAILS MONDAY NIGHT...AND BACKS TO WESTERLY 
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (AND ASSOCIATED CAA) 
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGH LOCATING ALONG 
THE COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO 
THE MID TEENS NW...TO LOW 20S SE UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...AND RISE 
INTO THE LOW 30S NE...TO NEAR 40 S TUESDAY UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HI PERS DRIFTS OFF THE CST TUE NGT INTO WED...RESULTING IN 
MILDER WX MIDWEEK. CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE NNW WED...THEN SLOLY 
SETTLES S ACRS THE AREA WED NGT THROUGH THU...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME 
SFC LO PRES TRACKS E INVOF GULF COAST STATES. QUITE THE DIFFERENCE 
BTWN THE 12Z/31 ECMWF AND GFS. ECMWF CONTS TO SUPPRESS MOISTURE W/ 
SRN LO PRES WHILE GFS SHOWS MOISTURE (AND PTNTL P-TYPE ISSUES) 
INTO/ACRS THE FA (ON THU) BEFORE DEPARTING THU NGT. WILL GO W/ 
CONSENSUS FM HPC...AND HAVE WIDESPREAD CLDNS AND CHC POPS (RA 
S...MIXED RA/SN N) AS COLDER AIR SPREADS INTO THE RGN. DRY AND COLD 
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR FCST THROUGH 00Z WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF TO BEYOND 24 
HOURS. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL COVER THE AREA 
SUNDAY. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S/SW 
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. 

OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION 
LATE SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT 
SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA MIDDAY MONDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS 
WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ENDING FROM WEST 
TO EAST DURING THE AFTN. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEGINNING 
TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 03Z WHERE
SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY AT 20NM OFFSHORE. WINDS CONTINUE
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE MD COASTAL WATERS WHILE
THE BAY AND INLAND WATERS HAD WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SLOWLY LOWER DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HI PRES DRIFTS ACRS THE WATERS SUN...THEN TO THE E SUN
NGT...RESULT IN VRB WNDS BECOMING SLY. AHEAD OF SFC LO PRES
TRACKING W-E THROUGH NRN MDATLC RGN AND ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT...SSW
WNDS TO INCRS SUN NGT...CONT INTO MON (TO AT LEAST LO END SCA MOST
PLACES). POST CDFNT LT MON INTO TUE WILL BRING STRONG LO LVL CAA
AND EITHER STRONG SCA CONDS (SPEEDS TO 30 KT) OR LO END GALES
(GUSTS AOA 35 KT). WNDS SLO TO SUBSIDE TUE AND RMN SUB-SCA WED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAS
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...ALB






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