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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020628
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
228 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DROPPED POPS AS CONVECTION AHEAD OF SFC TROF NOW OFFSHORE. WEAK
SFC RIDGING KEEPS FA DRY OVERNIGHT. M CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER 
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND 
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS 
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID 
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN 
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT 
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO 
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST 
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN 
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID 
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN 
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH 
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR 
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD 
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY IN WARM SW
FLOW. SW WINDS WILL AVG AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NW OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. COULD SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN...BUT EXPECT THE GREATEST CHANCE
WILL BE FROM 00-06Z/WED AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
COVERAGE WILL TEND TO BE SCATTERED SO STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO INCLUDE SHRA OR TSRA IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.

MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS WED-FRI AS SFC FRONT WASHES OUT ACRS
NC...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWER OR TSTM STILL
POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC. DOES APPEAR TO BE A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS BY SAT AS
NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...S/SW FLOW AVERAGES 10-15 KT OR LESS TODAY AS SFC HIGH STAYS ANCHORED
OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR. 1-2 FT
WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVR COASTAL WATERS FOR THE MOST PART.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
WED. WHILE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF INCREASED WINDS
AS THEY SHIFT TO THE N/NW AS THE FRONT PASSES...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HEADLINES. THIS DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF COLD AIR IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK AS WELL AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WED. WINDS SHIFT FROM
N/NW WED MORNING TO THE E/SE LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT. WINDS GENLY
SHOULD BE ESE TO S THU INTO FRI AT 10-15 KT OR LESS...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE SSW FRI NIGHT/SAT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...LKB/MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ






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