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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271952
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
352 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DISSIPATE OVER THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL'S CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT
250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AND IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTH AT THIS HOUR. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A NNE TRACK BECOMING
NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EITHER WAY...CRISTOBAL WILL FINALLY
PULL AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
CUMULUS OVER SE VA/NE NC WILL DISSIPATE TWD SUNSET THIS EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF CALM WINDS AND A SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN NE NC/FAR SE VA A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE THROUGH ABOUT 8-9 AM THURSDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT LOW STRATUS (RATHER THAN FOG)
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NW LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS MAY BE TRICKY SINCE THE FRONT IS A
TAD SLOWER WITH ITS SE PROGRESSION THIS AFTN...MAINLY DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF CRISTOBAL IN THE ATLANTIC...AND THEREFORE HIGH CLOUDS
MAY NOT SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
COULD RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S RATHER THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...
BECOMING STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THURSDAY EVENING
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS WEAK MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ALSO BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION
DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME (THU/FRI). SINCE THE UPPER RIDGE IS
RELATIVELY FLAT (ALMOST WESTERLY)...WEAK IMPULSES OF MOISTURE/ENERGY
COULD PASS THROUGH IT AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS EITHER TOO PROGRESSIVE OR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
QPF GENERATION THU/FRI AFTNS. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE OR LIFT IN THIS WX PATTERN...OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES
CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL (NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT) AND LIMITED TO
AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64. MEANWHILE...A SFC HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE NE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN
SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEAK FRONT
LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THE
REGION WILL BECOME WARM- SECTORED. ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT OF THE FORECAST YET DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE/LIFT PRESENT.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...HOWEVER HIGHS IN THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA
EASTERN SHORE MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE LOWER 80S ON FRI
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND/MID-UPPER 80S
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES EXITS OFF NEW ENG FRI NGT...THEN BECOMES NEARLY 
STATIONARY INVOF WCNTRL ATLC THROUGH THE WKND. A SFC WARM FRONT 
LIFTS N ACRS THE FA FRI NGT THROUGH SAT MRNG W/ PSBL ISOLD PCPN. 
OTRW...BALANCE OF THE PD FM SAT THROUGH SUN WILL BE PC...WARM AND 
MORE HUMID. A WEAKENING CDFNT SLOLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW LATE SUN.
INCRSG MOISTURE AHEAD OF THAT FNT WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCRS 
CLOUDS AND POPS BY LATE SUN (W)...THEN ACRS THE REST OF THE FA INTO 
MON. LO AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT TO RMN IN PLACE INVOF SE CONUS STATES 
EARLY NEXT WK...RESULTING IN CONTD WARM/HUMID WX OVR THE RGN FOR 
EARLY SEP. HI TEMPS MNLY IN THE U80S TO ARND 90F INLAND SAT/SUN...
L/M80S AT THE CST. BY MON/TUE...HI TEMPS MNLY IN THE M/U80S. LOW
TEMPS THROUGH THE PD FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD FOR MOST TAF SITES WITH HURRICANE
CRISTOBAL PASSING WELL OFFSHORE AND WEAK SFC HI PRES LOCKED IN
PLACE OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TNGT. ASIDE FM SOME SCT CU AT
~2-5K FT THIS AFTN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AROUND CRISTOBAL. N/NE WINDS OF 5-10 KT THIS
AFTN WILL BCM LGT/CALM OVRNGT. DID INCLUDE SOME IFR AT SBY WHERE
IT IS MOST FAVORABLE...AND WITH A SIMILAR CURRENT TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD
AS YESTERDAY PLUS SKC AND LGT WINDS EXPECTED...LO VSBYS ARE
LIKELY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 13-14Z. WEAK COLD
FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA ERLY THU...WITH WINDS BCMG NWLY YET STILL
AOB 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE NE/MID ATLC REGION
FRI/SAT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR EARLY AM FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN
06-12Z BOTH FRI/SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID MS VLY 
CONTINUES THE PERSISTENT NE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS 
THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP S ACROSS THE WATERS 
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THAT FRONT STALLS JUST S OF THE WATERS BY 
THU AFTN/NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES E INTO NEW ENGLAND.

MOST SPEEDS OVER THE WATERS REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WEEK. ANOTHER INCREASE IN SEAS (HIGHEST SRN PORTION...POSSIBLY TO 
7-9 FT?) WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO THU AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSES 
WELL OFFSHORE. 

AFTER CONTINUED NE WINDS TODAY...MOST OF THE WATERS WILL SEE WINDS 
SHIFT TO OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT. ONCE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SLIPS S 
ACROSS THE WATERS THU...DIRECTION BECOMES N-NE THEN E INTO FRI (W/ A 
POSSIBLE SURGE IN SPEEDS TO JUST BELOW LOW END SCA...ESP NRN 
PORTIONS THU MORNING). A TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE WINDS TO MOSTLY S 
OCCURS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT 
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...ALB/JDM









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