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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 151650
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1250 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MONDAY 
NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. 
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST DATA INDICATING UPR LVL S/W ENERGY DROPPING SE ALONG THE
ERN SHORE RESULTING IN THE BKN SC CLOUD DECK. SRN STREAM MOISTURE
IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS XTREME SRN VA / NRN NC. SKC
IN BTWN THESE TWO SYSTMS.

CURENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS.
EXPECT A PT TO MSTLY SUNNY AFTRN AHEAD. BREEZY WITH W TO NW WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH ALONG THE COAST AT TIMES. HIGHS
L-M60S XCPT M-U50S ERN SHORE AND NRN NECK AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH NW FLOW 
ALOFT CONTINUING. OVERALL...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT BUT 
A VORT MAX CROSSING THE MTNS MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH 
CIRRUS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO 
INFLUENCE 850 TEMPS AS LIGHT NW WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE WLY 
OVERNIGHT...STAYING LIGHTLY MIXED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NIGHT. ALL 
OF THE ABOVE FACTORS SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 
LOWER 40S ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64...AND IN THE 30S NORTH OF 
THIS LINE (LEANED TWD NAM GUIDANCE). SW WINDS DEVELOP MON INTO MON 
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. A WEAK LEESIDE TROUGH MAY 
ENHANCE LOWER LEVEL CUMULUS MON AFTN...HOWEVER THE MAIN WEATHER 
FEATURE OF THE DAY WILL BE CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A CROSSING VORT 
MAX. THE CIRRUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE LATE 
AFTN/EARLY EVENING AS THE LEE TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM 
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES MON/MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH 
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND...MID-UPPER 60S IMMEDIATE 
COAST...AND AROUND 60 MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 
LOWER 50S INTERIOR VA/NE NC TO MID 40S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE UNDER 
INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUE 
AFTN/EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MD/VA 
EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL ERN VA TUE AFTN AND ACROSS FAR SE VA AND 
NE NC TUE EVENING DUE TO WEAK LIFT PRESENT THROUGH A SHALLOW 
MOISTURE LAYER...IN ADDITION TO ENHANCED LIFT BY A JET STREAK 
TRAVERSING THE NERN HALF OF THE FA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE 
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE BACKDOOR FRONT. FAR SRN AREAS MAY BENEFIT THE MOST FROM A 
POTENTIALLY LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE WHICH COULD BOOST TEMPS INTO 
THE MID 70S BEFORE CLOUDS ROLL IN. RIGHT NOW...COOLEST HIGH TEMPS 
ARE ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND MD/VA EASTERN SHORE WITH HIGHS IN THE 
60S. HIGHS AROUND 70 FROM ROUGHLY INTERSTATE 64 TO THE HWY 460 
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW-MID 70S ACROSS FAR SRN VA AND NE NC. BEHIND THE 
FRONT...WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE NE CONUS BRINGS A SLIGHTLY COOLER 
AIRMASS TO THE REGION TUE NIGHT (ESPECIALLY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR 
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH). THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS DROPPING BACK 
INTO THE 30S (LOW-MID 30S NORTH OF RICHMOND METRO/MID-UPPER 30S 
RICHMOND SWD INTO NE NC).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND A 
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH ONE SYSTM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR TUE 
NIGHT/WED...SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE OH VALLEY...WITH CAA LEADING 
TO COOLER TEMPS THAN THOSE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. LO TEMPS TUE NIGHT 
IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S...WITH HI TEMPS WED RANGING FM THE MID 40S 
OVER THE LWR ERN SHORE TO THE MID 50S SW AREAS UNDER A MSTLY SUNNY 
SKY. CHANCE FOR RAIN THEN COMES LATE THU THRU FRI WITH AN 
APPROACHING SRN STREAM SYSTM. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER 
GREATLY WITH HOW TO HANDLE THIS SYSTM...AND FOR NOW WILL NOT GO 
HIGHER THAN 30-40% POPS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER SRN AREAS. 
CONTINUED COOL TEMPS THU THRU SAT WITH HIGHS AOB THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS WITH MOSTLY CLR TO PTCLDY SKY OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...EXCEPT FOR BKN CU/SC CIGS OVER THE EASTERN
SHORE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THRU THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THRU THE REGION EARLY MONDAY AND BRING SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUD CIGS BEFORE CLEARING OUT DURING THE AFTN.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LOW PRES SYS
WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND PSBL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ON THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA W-NW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
NW WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED SOUTH TO COVER LOWER CHES BAY AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN AND WEAK CAA INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE BAY TO 15
TO 20 KT. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES TO FENWICK ISLAND. SCA WINDS WILL
LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT. EXPECT
WAVES TO BUILD TO 3 FT ON THE BAY THIS MORNING AND SEAS 4-5 FT OUT
NEAR 20 NM. SFC HI PRES THEN BLDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE
STATES LATE TONIGHT INTO MON LEADING TO BENIGN MARINE CONDS.
ANOTHER (STRONGER) COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS TUE...WITH SCA CONDS
LIKELY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNG.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...JAO






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