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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING 
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS 1005 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE...WITH A STACKED UPR LOW FOLLOWING SUIT AND
TRACKING SLOW NE JUST OFFSHORE. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHERE SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING. ELSEWHERE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS TRENDED WEAKER IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. STILL SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SW
ZONES...WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT NE THRU TONIGHT...
LOCATING OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z THU. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING AS THE WRAP AROUND PCPN
CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LIGHTER
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING JUST 
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CHC POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR EASTERN VA
AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE SW...WITH SKY CONDITIONS BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S
WEST TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY 
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING 
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S 
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE 
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL 
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD. 
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW 
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE 
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY 
SHIFT TO THE NE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS 
WILL PREVAIL AS MOISTURE PULLED FROM THE SOUTH IS WRAPPED AROUND THE 
STORM AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DUE TO THE ADDED MOISTURE AND UPPER 
LEVEL SUPPORT...SCATTERED POCKETS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH 
THE EVENING...ENDING THE LATEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. WITH THAT 
BEING SAID...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE 
SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA WITH CEILINGS ~5K FT. EXPECT THIS 
DRIER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE. 
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT(~15-20KT) AND THU 
AFTN(~20-25KT) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG BETWEEN THE 
DEPARTING LOW AND A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/THU MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND 
AS HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE 
TN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS 
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW 
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE 
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS 
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS 
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY 
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT 
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. 
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE 
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE 
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...AJZ






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