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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070026
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
726 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMP WAS SET AT ECG TODAY...BOTH ORF AND SBY TIED
THEIR RECORD LOW MAX TMPS. SEE RERECG/RERORF/RERSBY FOR DETAILS.

PVS DSCN:
THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST, WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING E-NE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR CLEAR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
TEENS...WHICH AGAIN ARE NEARLY -2 ST DEV FROM THE SEASONAL MEAN.

INCREASING ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC HIGH WELL
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY ANY NRN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL STAY WELL N OF
THE MID ATLANTIC. SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
MODERATING TREND...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL NORMALS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA AND NE NC...WITH LOW/MID 40S OVER THE ERN
SHORE AND COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
MILDER AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. SKY COVER SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SAT...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CHARACTERIZED BY
A GRADUAL WARMUP IN TEMPS SUN-MON, THOUGH TEMPS STILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW SETUP CONTINUES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...W/NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS
WELL NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED TO THE 4 CORNERS/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REGION INTO NW MEXICO. DO HAVE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA, AS THE
SOUTHWEST TROUGH WILL EJECT SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL
SCOOT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS ENERGY PROGRERSSES EAST, IT'LL SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN/SCT
SHRAS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. DO TO
LOW CHCS FOR MEASURING, WL STICK WITH NO HIGHER THAN A 20% POP
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. REMAINING CLOUDY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH POPS INCREASING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
AHEAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY, WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPTATION FROM SW TO
NE TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPS, THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATING AFOREMENTIONED WARMUP FROM THE 
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WENT TOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ON 
SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGHS IN THE MID 
50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH (EXCEPTION BEING UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 
ALONG ATLANTIC COAST OF EASTERN SHORE). GIVEN CONSIDERABLE 
CLOUDINESS, WENT TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ON 
MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SIMILAR TO 
THOSE OF SUNDAY...U50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH...LOW TO MID 50S NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING 
NORTHWARD FROM THE GOMEX ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER 
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NWRD 
INTO THE REGION...BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY..ESPECIALLY 
SOUTHERN AREAS. THE STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE SE WEDNESDAY 
FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY FOR 
DRY WX. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER GOMEX SYSTEM TO BRING 
RAIN BACK TO THE AREA NEXT FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 
30S TO LWR 40S...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S 
ON TUE...TO THE LOW/MID 50S TO LWR 60S WED AND THU. COOLING BACK 
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TN/KY/LA THIS EVENING HAS PUSHED DRY
AIR IN THE AREA AND THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z SUN. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM LIGHT N/NW TO S/SW BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SE COAST.

OUTLOOK SUN THRU TUES...DRY WX AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND
WITH THE HI REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
RAIN MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 3 PM...THE ONLY REMAINING SCA WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 5 FT THIS 
EVENING...PROBABLY TAKING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR OBX CURRITUCK. 
N-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 5-15 KT AS WELL. BENIGN MARINE 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE 
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND SLOWLY SLIDING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SCA'S ARE NOT 
EXPECTED ATTM...EXCEPT POTENTIAL FOR ~5 FT SEAS ALONG THE NORTHERN 
OBX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BREMO BLUFF / RICHMOND WESTHAM
ON THE JAMES RIVER AND LAWRENCEVILLE ON THE MEHERRIN RIVER. SEE
LATEST FLWAKQ / FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH SEBRELL
ON THE NOTTOWAY RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY 3/7:
 RIC...12 IN 1960
 ORF...17 IN 1899
 SBY...11 IN 1960
 ECG...17 IN 1960

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...






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