000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200627
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRY CONDS OVRNGT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
MID-LVL ENERGY PUSHES OFFSHORE. WILL MAINTAIN PRTLY CLDY SKIES
WITH DECENT MOISTURE CONFINED BLO 700 MB. OTW...LGT ONSHORE FLOW
AND LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOCATE ALONG THE NE COAST
THURS...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE THE DEEP SOUTH WEDS NIGHT/THURS MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS.
MEANWHILE...ONSHORE E/SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR
FULL POTENTIAL. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY THURS...WITH
FORECAST TEMPS REACHING ONLY INTO THE LOW 80S (~-1 STD DEV). TEMPS
ALONG THE COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.

BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE
SE COAST. LATEST NAM/SREF GUIDANCE LIFT THE WAVE SLOWLY NWD FRI-
SAT. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE IS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE
WAVE...KEEPING THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND THE WAVE FARTHER
OFFSHORE. NAM/SREF BRING MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO NE NC/SE VA FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS EXTENDING ONLY AS FAR NWD AS
EXTREME ERN NC. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND BTWN THE MODELS...AND HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRI-SAT ACROSS EXTREME SE VA/NE NC.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM (EVIDENT OF ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS)
AS OVERALL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE
MODELS. OVERALL LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. TEMPS FRI-SAT WILL REBOUND INLAND TO NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS (MID/UPPER 80S) AS SLY WINDS RETURN. STILL COOL
ALONG THE COAST (THANKS TO SELY WINDS) WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO LOW 80S ABOUT 50-60 MILES
INLAND FROM THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH MAINLY QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS PATTERN IS EXPECTED 
SUN/MON...ONLY CAVEAT WOULD BE SOME WEAK SFC TROUGHING OFF THE 
COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO SUN. LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN DECENT 
AGREEMENT WITH ~590 DM RIDGE CENTERED ALONG/OFF THE SE COAST 
SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS TUE/WED AS A MORE 
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST 
TO EASTERN CANADA (AND THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT MORE DURING 
THIS TIMEFRAME LEADING TO LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE). WILL CARRY A 
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC GIVEN 
THE WEAK TROUGHING OFF TO THE SE OF THE AREA...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT 
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 
MID-UPPER 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING 
TREND W/ TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG INTO EARLY NEXT 
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 
60S TO LOWER 70S. INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS UPPER HEIGHTS 
FALL AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE UPPER RIDGE 
CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. WILL CARRY DIURNAL 20% CHANCES FOR 
AFTN/EVENING TSTMS EACH DAY BUT WITH THE ONLY REAL TRIGGER BEING A 
LEE TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVES (NO SFC FRONT) CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW  
TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 20% WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR A 12-HR 
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NNE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
HV NOTED SOME MVFR-IFR CIGS ERY THIS MORNING AT ECG AND RIC, IN
ASSOCIATION WITH REMNANT MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. HV ACCOUNTED FOR 1KFT CIGS TOWARDS DAWN AT RIC/PHF/ECG, BUT
HAVE HELD OFF AT ORF/SBY FOR NOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAPID
LIFTING OF ANY LOW CLOUDS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THIS AFTN/ERY THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST.

OUTLOOK: WEAK, STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY/COASTAL TROUGH WILL
MEANDER JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH MINIMAL CHCS FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRIMARILY SCT, DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHRAS OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS SAT-SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NE FLOW PREVAILS ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CONDITIONS JUST SHY 
OF SCA CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE NO 
HEADLINES IN EFFECT...SEAS AVG 3-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT IN THE BAY 
(2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY). NAM REMAINS A LITTLE STRONGER/MORE 
OF AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW OFF THE 
NC/SC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY MAY 
NEED HEADLINES ACRS SOUTHERN WATERS FOR MARGINAL SCA (SEAS TO 5 FT). 
PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO EVOLVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDS GRADUALLY 
SHIFT TO THE ESE THEN THE SSE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN (AND SUBSIDE TO 10-15 
KT OR LESS).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH 
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH 
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/SAM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...LKB