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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240824
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
424 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A SERIES OF WEAK AND GENERALLY DRY FRONTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES 
REGION AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE 
SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY AND 
BECOME LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED ALONG THE ATLANTIC 
COAST TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES IN AND A STRONG SFC LOW WELL EAST OF 
THE NRN NEW ENGLAND COAST SLOWLY PUSHES EWD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE 
OVERHEAD...SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY
TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW AS THE AFTN
PROGRESSES BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND VA/NE NC
AND IN THE LOW-MID 60S CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE CHES BAY/ATLANTIC
COASTS. IN ADDITION...DRY WEATHER AND FINE FUELS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH BREEZY NW WINDS WILL ALLOW
MIN RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS-LOW 20S MOST AREAS BY
THIS AFTN. INCREASED FIRE POTENTIAL IS A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN FOR
TODAY...BUT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE. PLEASE REFER
TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WINDS WILL TURN SE-S AND BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SEWD OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 
MID- UPPER 40S AREAWIDE (EXCEPT LOW 40S POSSIBLE FOR INTERIOR
MD EASTERN SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING AS THE UPPER WAVE REACHES
THE OH VALLEY. QUESTIONS STILL EXIST ON STRENGTH OF THE UPPER WAVE
AS IT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LATEST GFS TRENDING SHARPER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND COMING MORE
IN LINE WITH ITS NAM/ECMWF COUNTERPARTS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON-EVENING. SHORT LIVED LOW-LEVEL SW
FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO ADVECT MODEST PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25
INCHES INTO THE REGION...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FRI. WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
(DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING). COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPS AND
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
(MLCAPE <500 J/KG)...MOSTLY OVER ERN VA/NERN NC. ALSO...LITTLE
INSTABILITY/LIFT PROGGED IN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER SO ANTICIPATE
ONLY ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN CONVECTION. JUST LIKE
YESTERDAYS FRONT...BIGGEST LIMITATIONS ARE WSW FLOW AND LOW
DEWPOINTS. SHEAR IS ALSO MARGINAL (~30-35 KT) SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKLY FORCED FRONT. WITH THAT
SAID...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
ONE TO TWO TENTHS.

FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AS A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. BREEZY WLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW SAT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGS MOST
LOCALES...EVEN BEHIND FRIDAYS FRONT. NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND
MEASURABLE PRECIP FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE
SAT-SAT EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER 
THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD. 

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS BLOCKY FLOW...MAINLY IN 
LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE RGN
ALONG WITH TIMING OF SEVERAL BATCHES OF MSTR PROGGED TO ROTATE NE
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT TODAYS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT FROM
YSTRDYS IS A SLOWER START TO THE PCPN MON...SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR AN EXTNDD PRD OF WETNESS FROM MON NITE THRU WED
ALONG WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIKELY PLAY HAVOC WITH
TEMPS.

KEPT SUN DRY / SEASONABLE AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM 
FRONT APPRCHS THE RGN FROM THE SW SUN NIGHT...BUT GUID SUGGESTS ANY 
MOISTURE STAYS W OF FA THRU 12Z MON. LOWS SAT / SUN NIGHTS IN THE 
M40S-L50S. HIGHS SUN 70-75 WEST OF THE BAY...M-U60S ALONG THE COAST. 

FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC NEXT WEEK AS THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE 
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY SETS UP. THIS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE TMPS AND PCPN 
TYPES (CONVECTIVE VS STRATIFORM RAIN). UPR LVL LOW PROGGED TO
SLOWLY EJECT EAST FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION MON NIGHT ONLY TO
THE OHIO VLLY BY WED. A MOIST E-SE FLOW WILL LIKELY ADD TO THE
MOISTURE CONTENT RESULTING IN PERIODIC CHCS FOR PCPN THRU THE PRD.
FRNTL BNDRY MAY ALSO TRY TO MAKE A RUN FARTHER NORTH BY WED AS SFC
LOW BEGINS TO CROSS THE MTS. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH ALL THIS OUT TO SEA...BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY.
UPSHOT WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS (SHWRS) MON THROUGH WED. TMPS
COOLEST (L-M60S) ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS
U60S-L70S WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES CONTG TO BUILD OVR THE RGN THROUGH TDA...RESULTING IN
DCRSG NNW WNDS. A LTL BIT GUSTY TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT INTO THIS
MRNG...ESP NR THE CST. WNDS DIMINISH OVR INLAND LOCATIONS TO
AROUND 5 KT BY LT TDA. VFR TDA THROUGH TNGT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR WILL BE PSBL AT THE TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH VFR AND DRY WEATHER TAKING OVER
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
PCPN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING SCAS ON THE BAY INTO MID/LT MRNG HRS...ON THE OCN UNTIL
MID/LT AFTN. SFC HI PRES IS SLO TO BUILD OVR THE WTRS THIS
AFTN/EVE...RESULTING IN GUSTY NNW WNDS THIS MRNG WANING THIS AFTN.
VRB WNDS TNGT LESS THAN 10 KT...BECOME SSE ON FRI AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LO PRES FM THE W. SPEEDS TO INCRS FRI INTO FRI NGT...
THOUGH WILL KEEP BLO SCA...THEN BECOME WNW FRI NGT AND CONT
THROUGH SAT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 15-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. NW WINDS
DO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS ON THE LOWER MD/VA EASTERN SHORE.
GIVEN HOW LOW RH VALUES WILL BE THURSDAY AFTN COUPLED WITH LOW
FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...HAVE CONTINUED THE INCREASED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR OUR MD COUNTIES (AFTER COORDINATION WITH MD
FIRE OFFICIALS) AND ADDED VA EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES TO THE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS 
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS 
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR 
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/LSA
MARINE...ALB
FIRE WEATHER...BMD











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