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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211037
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
637 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA INTO 
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND IS SLOW TO 
BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT HAS STALLED OVR THE FA...AND WILL RMN NRLY STATIONARY
TDA. LIMITED LO CIGS AND FOG TO START...THEN VRB CLDS TO PCLDY AGN
TDA. MOST OF THE DAY XPCD TO BE PCPN FREE. HEATING...MODEST DEWPTS
(FOR MID AUG) AND CONVERGENCE INVOF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY (OVR
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF FA) XPCD TO RESULT IN ISOLD TO PSBLY SCT
CONVECTION BY LT THIS AFTN/EVE. WEAKENING S/W FM THE WNW MAY BRING
CONVECTION INTO FAR WNW AREAS LT IN THE DAY AS WELL. HI TEMPS FM
THE M80S AT THE CST...TO THE U80S TO L90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NW FLO ALOFT RMNS FM TNGT INTO THE WKND...W/ SERIES OF WK IMPULSES
PASSING THROUGH THE RGN. INITIAL IMPULSE (WKNG S/W) MAY KEEP AT
LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE FA TNGT. A 2ND WK S/W PUSHES
THROUGH THE FA ON FRI WILL PTNTL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT
CONVECTION BY AFTN/EVE HRS. 

A MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION FRI NGT INTO SAT AS
SFC BNDRY RMNS OVR THE FA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BEST CHC OF AND
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE/STRONGER UPPER
JET SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY BEGINS
TO PUSH S TOWARD MDATLC RGN BY LT IN THE DAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE
REMNANT FRONT BACK S OF THE AREA. 

HI TEMPS FRI MNLY IN THE M/U80S FRI...THEN FM THE L/M80S ON SAT
(PSBLY U70S ALG THE ATLC BEACHES ON THE ERN SHORE). LO TEMPS MNLY
BE IN THE U60S TO L70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND NEAR SEASONABLE...LATE SUMMER 
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST.

UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
THE CNTRL CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE NE COAST. FLOW 
REMAINS BLOCKED OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN US...RESULTING IN 
LITTLE PROGRESSION OF THE CNTRL CONUS RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD. THE 
RESULT WILL BE ONGOING NWLY FLOW INTO THE EARLY PERIOD. BACKDOOR 
FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN AS THE TROUGH 
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED 
SLIGHTLY WETTER SUN AFTER PREVIOUSLY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND 
THE FRONT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL RIDGE SWD OVER 
THE LOCAL AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN 
MODEL SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON THE DOWNTREND AS MODEL 
DERIVED PWATS DROP BELOW 1.5 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...SUN MAY END UP 
BEING DRY...BUT WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND 
COASTAL AREAS AS DISTURBANCES IN NWLY FLOW AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY 
DECREASE CONFIDENCE. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS HEADING 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CNTRL CONUS HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM 
THE WEST AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WINS OUT. BEST MOISTURE ALSO GETS 
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. TREND CONTINUES INTO TUES AND WEDS AS 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT. 

ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY 
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THRU TUES (-1 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF 
YEAR). RETURN FLOW ON WEDS AND WARMING THICKNESSES PUSH TEMPS BACK 
INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S THRU THE PERIOD 
AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A FRNTAL BNDRY IS STALLED OVR THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HI
PRES LOCATED OVR THE NE STATES. THE COMBO OF CALM/LGT WINDS ALONG
THE FRNT AND DECENT LO-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO LO CIGS AND VSBYS
ERLY THIS MORNG. ANY MVFR/IFR SHOULD END BY LATER THIS
MORNG...WITH LGT WINDS AND SOME LO/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STICKING
AROUND THRU THE DAY. ISO/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY
LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENG HOURS...BUT CHANCE IS NOT HI
ENUF TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...SCT MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY 
AND SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER INDICATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW 
HOURS OF MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY 
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. A STATIONARY FRNT WILL 
REMAIN JUST INLAND TDA OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL LEAD 
TO LGT WINDS OVR ALL WTRS (AOB 10 KT) OUT OF THE S/SE. EXPECT MAINLY 
2 FT SEAS (3 FT THIS MORNG OUT 20NM). THE FRNT STALLS OVR THE WTRS 
TNGT AS A WAVE OF LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT...VEERING WINDS 
BEHIND THE LO TO AVG OUT OF THE N ON FRI. HI PRES OVR THE NE STATES 
RIDGES SWD OVR THE WTRS FRI NGT INTO SAT AS LO PRES PUSHES OFF THE 
NC COAST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING 
NELY WINDS OVER THE CSTAL WTRS LATE FRI NGT THRU SAT. HI PRES 
REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NE CST THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN 
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. ATTM...SPEEDS APPEAR TO REMAIN 
SUB-SCA...BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BLD TO 4-5 FT LATE SAT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS






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