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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171742
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE (1045 MB AT BANGOR
AT 14Z) RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. MOST OF THE AREA HAD A
CLEAR SKY. STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
AND HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH.

EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE COAST BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 55 TO 60 WELL
INLAND WITH 50 TO 55 NEAR THE COAST. THE BEACHES OF THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE MAY STAY BELOW 50.

FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT LITTLE OR NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOWS
INLAND MAINLY 35-40 F...40-45 F NEAR THE COAST. WILL ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN RURAL AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
WITH THE AFTN FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA
(ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID
LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY
ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI
NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL
EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED
TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC
HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A
RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN
INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES
TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY
SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING
OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH 
SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR 
NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE 
NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70 
DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID 
ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY 
IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP 
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 
(MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES
BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS FROM 950 TO 850 MB ARE BECOMING MORE
EAST AND CAN SEE THE CLOUDS WORKING BACK INTO THE COAST LINE NOW.
THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THESE CLOUDS RETURNING. USING THE
EXPERIMENTAL GOES MVFR PROBABILITY IMAGES CAN SEE THE PROBABILITY
OF CLOUDS BEING MVFR INCREASING OVER THE OCEAN. AT THIS TIME DO
NOT BELIEVE CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE. HOWEVER THE SREF
PROBABILITIES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOST EASTER
TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NONE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ANYTHING BUT VFR
CONDITIONS. ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING ON THE CLOUDS ARRIVING
AND WILL BRING BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING
AND REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT THE
MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM THE WEST TO THE
EAST DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC
FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US BUT
BY SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE RIVERS HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 KTS. OVER THE BAY
AND COAST WINDS CONTINUE 15 TO 20 KTS. SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTN FOR NRN CHES BAY ZNS...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE SRN CHES BAY. HI PRES WILL SLIDE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR
THE WTRS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST LATE FRI NGT. FRI
NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF
THE MID ATLC CST. WHILE...HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE NRN GRT LAKES
EWRD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU
MON.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
     631-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA
SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG/JAB
MARINE...TMG/JAB






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