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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 182103
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
403 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUNDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND UP ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DRY WX WILL CONTINUE TNGT INTO FRI MORNG...DESPITE A MID LEVEL
SHORTWV TROF PASSING N OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS (GFS/NAM/ECMWF) CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER S WITH PCPN AND
WEAK LO LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT...DUE TO NRN STREAM UPR TROF
SWINGING EWRD FM THE UPR MIDWEST THRU THE GRT LKS. NAM IS THE
FARTHEST S AND THUS THE DRIEST MODEL. HI PRES STRETCHING FM
SCNTRL/SE CANADA SSE INTO THE MID ATLC WILL MAINTAIN DRY WX FRI
INTO FRI NGT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRI WITH HIGHS RANGING FM
THE MID 40S TO ARND 50. MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY FRI
NGT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN FM THE SSW. COLD
AGAIN WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S.

FOR SAT INTO SAT NGT...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
LO PRES TRACKING FM THE GULF OF MEXICO EWRD AND OFF THE SE CST.
WILL GO WITH NO HIGHER THAN 30-40% POPS FOR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC
MAINLY SAT AFTN INTO EARLY SAT NGT. JUST HAVE SLGT CHC (20%) OR NO
PCPN (14%) ACRS NRN HALF OF CWA AT THIS TIME. ANY PCPN AT THE
ONSET OVR WRN/NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES COULD BE VERY LIGHT SLEET OR
SNOW. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL BE JUST A COLD LIGHT RAIN...AND MAINLY
OVR EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC. COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES MIXED IN AT
THE END EARLY SAT NGT. HI TEMPS ON SAT ONLY IN THE LWR TO MID 40S.
THE WEAK LO WILL BE WELL OFF THE SE CST LATE SAT NGT...WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT RANGING FM THE UPR 20S
TO MID 30S. HI PRES WILL BE OVR THE AREA AGAIN DURING SUN. PARTLY
OR MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND 
TRACK NE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TIMING 
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AMONGST 18/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...AND GIVEN 
THIS POPS WILL REMAIN CAPPED IN THE CHC CATEGORY. POPS INCREASE TO 
20-30% SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 40-50% POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND 
MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN TYPE SHOULD GENERALLY BE RAIN...ALTHOUGH THERE 
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET OVER THE NW PIEDMONT 
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD 
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S NW...TO MID 50S SE...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN 
THE LOW 30S NW...TO AROUND 40 SE. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS 
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY (BRINGING MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN 
THE LOW 50S NW TO NEAR 60 SE)...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG 
COLD FRONT IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SPATIAL 
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE 18/12Z GFS TRACKING THE 
SURFACE LOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE 18/12Z ECMWF TRACKING THE 
SURFACE LOW UP THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON 
TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER THE RAIN IS MORE STRATIFORM OR SHOWERY. IF 
THE FARTHER W 18/12Z GFS WERE TO VERIFY THERE COULD BE A POTENTIAL 
FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THIS SOLUTION...SURFACE DEWPOINTS 
AOA 60F REMAIN OFFSHORE. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY 
PREVAIL BY CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH EXPECT TO
SEE SOME MID LEVEL CIGS FROM 10-15 K FT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
WINDS GENLY WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT...EXCEPT FOR SOME 10-15 KT NW
WINDS THROUGH 22Z THIS AFTN AT KSBY.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVERAGING
10 KT OR LESS AND CLEARING SKIES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
TO OUR SOUTH SAT/SAT NIGHT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC CONDITIONS
BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 4-5 K FT OR HIGHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MON BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO 
FRIDAY. A SECONDARY NNW SURGE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY 
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE BAY COULD BRIEFLY REACH 20KT...BUT AT 
THIS TIME THE DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT 
AN SCA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
SUNDAY...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST 
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN N-NE FLOW AOB 15KT THROUGH 
SUNDAY...WITH 2-3FT SEAS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF 
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TRACKS NE OFF THE MID 
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAA IN 
THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH A 
WIND BECOMING WESTERLY BY TUESDAY. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER LOW TRACKS 
W OF THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING 
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...AJZ






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