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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010900
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
500 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TODAY...PUSHING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1001 MB LO PRES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
CST WITH A WEAKER SECOND AREA OF LO PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE SC/NC
CST. ALOFT...A VERY POTENT UPR-LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS
THE SE STATES. THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO AREAS OF NOTE IN TERMS OF
PRECIP...ONE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA CST AND ANOTHER APPROACHING THE
VA PIEDMONT. BOTH AREAS ARE STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA AS
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS WITH SOMEWHAT DRY LO LEVELS AS WELL. THEREFORE
KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE THIS MORNG...INCREASING THRU
THE DAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE. WITH THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF REMAINING S OF THE AREA TDA...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS
BEING MINIMAL AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25IN. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
(0.25-0.50IN) SHOULD BE ACROSS THE LWR ERN SHORE WHERE THE
DURATION OF RAIN SHOULD BE LONGEST.

WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE OUTER BANKS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A PERIOD OF STRONG N WIND (25-35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO ~45 MPH) IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL ZONES AS THE LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND STRONG CAA COMMENCES. AREAS OF MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLC BEACHES AND LWR CHES
BAY (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW). A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED OVER AT LEAST SOME OF THE COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD. THIS WILL REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE. THE SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
(ALTHOUGH A BAND OF SC COULD DEVELOP OFF THE BAY SUNDAY DUE TO THE
COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER SST'S ~62-64F). THE SURFACE HIGH OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON
TO DATE. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 N/NE...TO THE
MID 50S S. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE SEASON SHOULD OCCUR
LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING AS LOWS DROP TO 29-32 OVER THE
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LIKELY LINGER CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S.

THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY...WITH SSW FLOW RESUMING ACROSS THE 
REGION. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S UNDER A 
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY GENERAL MODERATION OF 
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE 
SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH RESULTANT 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAXIMA TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S TO 
LOWER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS MODERATING 
BACK INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WED AND THU MORNING.

ALOFT, UPPER PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER RIDGING, WHICH 
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AND SLIP OFFSHORE LATE WED/THU. NORTHERN 
STREAM DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER 
GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK 
SURFACE FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA BY LATE WED NGT/THURSDAY. ONCE 
AGAIN, THE BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS LOOK TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE 
NORTH/NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, SUSPECT THE FROPA WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE 
LITTLE MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. WILL KEEP POP NO HIGHER THAN 20% 
FOR WED/THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURE POST 
FRONTAL LATE IN THE INTO THE 60S, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS NEAR CLIMO 
VALUES FRIDAY AND SAT MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL
STRENGTHEN OFFSHR WHILE LIFTING NE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG. NNE
FLO/WINDS WILL INCREASE ACRS THE AREA...ESPLY LATER THIS MORNG
INTO THIS EVENG. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CLOUDS TO MVFR CIGS
AND ISLTD IFR CIGS ALONG WITH -RA. THE LO WILL PULL AWAY TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND CST AND TWD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TNGT INTO
SUN AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES SUN
MORNG...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER THRU THE DAY ON SUN. HI
PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION SUN AFTN INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WAS OFF JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL INTENSIFY TODAY INTO TNGT...AS UA LO PRES ENERGY DIVES ESE
OFF THE CSTL CAROLINAS THEN LIFTS NE. HAVE ADJUSTED SCA/GALE WRNG
HEADLINES WHILE ALSO EXTENDING THEM THRU MOST OF SUN. FOR GALE
WRNGS...WILL HAVE GUSTS TO ARND 40 KT OR GUSTS UP TO 45 KT...ESPLY
FOR TNGT INTO SUN MORNG. WAVES/SEAS WILL BLD QUICKLY THIS AFTN
INTO TNGT...AS N WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE DUE TO STRENGTHENING LO
PRES OFF THE CST. NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUN EVENG INTO
MON MORNG...AS THE LO MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HI
PRES BLDS IN FM THE W.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG NNW WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN TIDAL DEPARTURES ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOWER BAY.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS AS THE SURGE
APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST 
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-
     650-652-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST SUNDAY 
     FOR ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY 
     FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






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