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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251851
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
251 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MUCH QUIETER DAY ON TAP (CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR LATE JULY)
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER DEW POINT TMPS BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SCT CONVECTION DVLPNG
ACROSS ERN NC AFTER 18Z THEN SLOWLY MOVG E-NE TOWARDS SUNSET.
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY MAKE IT
NORTH OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COUNTIES
THAT BORDER THE SOUND FOR NOW. HIGHS L-M80S... A BIT COOLER ALONG
THE BEACHES.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT TONIGHT THAN THE PAST FEW...AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVERHEAD. MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS
IN THE 60S..XCPT NR 70 SERN COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS TAKE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROLLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...OVER THE AREA SAT AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP EVIDENT ON MODEL
SNDGS, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO
RAMP BACK UP WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING 70-75.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT/SUN...AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. ATTM,
INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, WILL GO WITH A CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LLVL
PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING. SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH MIDDAY, HOWEVER, POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS (20-30% SERN AREAS TO 40-50% NWRN CNTYS). TEMPS
WILL AGAIN CREEP UPWARDS A BIT, RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH...TO MID 90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW DIGS A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/SERN
CANADA OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS A
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER WARM DAY ON
MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH...LOW 90S SOUTH)...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S...COOLING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE
TODAY...TURNING E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTN AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AND MID LEVEL WAVE PASS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15KT EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A 
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. 
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE 
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF 
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC 
RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE 
ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA 
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS 
WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK 
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT. 
THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING 
WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A 
SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO 
LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA 
PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS 
MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT 
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH 
MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD/DAP
MARINE...BMD






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