Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Wakefield, VA banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230614
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
214 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS 
WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DOUBLE BARREL SFC LO PRES OFF THE CST...ONE CENTER SE OF LONG
ISLAND...A SECOND ONE E OF THE VA ERN SHORE. MDLS CONSOLATE THE
SFC LO SE OF LONG ISLAND BY LT TNGT. PCPN HAS CONTD TO GRADUALLY
DCRS IN COVERAGE THIS EVE...THOUGH WILL HOLD ONTO SLGT CHC/LO CHC
POPS ERN 1/3RD INTO THE OVRNGT HRS. ALSO...GUSTY MNLY NW WNDS (TO
20-30 MPH) MNLY FOUND FM I 95 TO THE CST...WILL BE SLO TO DIMINISH
(INLAND) OVRNGT. LO TEMPS IN THE L40S W TO L50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS QUICKLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THURSDAY...ALLOWING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
WILL OCCUR...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE. A 20% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE. STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
NE TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY
CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
SATURDAY FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY 
MOVES OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
BUILDS OVER THE ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING 
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S 
TO AROUND 70 SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE 
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL 
LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER IN THE PERIOD. 
22/12Z GFS/ECMWF EACH HAVE TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER AS A WAVE OF LOW 
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE 
RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER REGIONAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH AREAS
OF MVFR LINGERING ALONG THE COAST WITH CIGS ~3KFT. DEEPENING LOW
PRES SYS NOW OFF THE E NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE LOW WILL CONT UP
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND OFF THE
COAST OF MAINE BY FRI MORNING. CONDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH VFR CONDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH FRI MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN COMPRESSED
TODAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY N-NW WINDS TO AROUND 20-25 KT OVER THE
EASTERN SHORE INTO THU AFTN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THU NGT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THW WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS 
AFTERNOON. A NNW WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW 
HOURS AND AVERAGE 25-30KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT THROUGH THE 
EVENING (20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT OVER THE RIVERS). SEAS 
SHOULD BUILD TO 6-9FT N THROUGH S OUT NEAR 20NM...WITH 4-6FT SEAS 
NEARSHORE...AND 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY 
LIFT NE LATE TONIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION OFF OF CAPE COD THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 
THIS TIME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN SCA CRITERIA. THE GRADIENT 
FINALLY SLACKENS ENOUGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. 
ANOTHER BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE 
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE 
EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OVER WORCESTER COUNTY. TIDAL DEPARTURES IN VICINITY OF OCEAN CITY
INLET WILL AVERAGE 1.5-2.0 FT ABOVE NORMAL DURING HIGH TIDE AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS OCEAN CITY INLET
EXCEEDING MINOR DURING HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL BE A FEW TENTHS HIGHER. WITH A NNW
WIND...THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
ASSAWOMAN AND CHINCOTEAUGE BAYS...AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN INLETS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
     025.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     ANZ630>633.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy