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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 261814
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
114 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WHILE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGE TO TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO RAISE MAX TEMPS
EVERYWHERE...AND POPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NC. THIS
WILL MAINLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE NC. OTWS...NO CHANGES TO WINTER
HEADLINES ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNG...AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVNG INTO WRN AND NRN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF SFC LO OVR SW VA AND UPR TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE MTNS. THE LO WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNG...WHILE A NEW LO PRES
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC CST BY EARLY THIS AFTN. THAT LO
WILL THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLC CST INTO THIS EVENG.
COMBINATION OF THE SFC LO RE-DEVELOPMENT AND UPR TROF SWINGING
ACRS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG. HIGHEST POPS (60-80%) WILL BE OVR THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA
WHERE BEST LIFT WILL BE...WITH 30-40% POPS OVR THE SRN HALF. TEMPS
WILL WARM A BIT INTO EARLY AFTN DESPITE CLOUD COVER...POSSIBLE
PCPN AS WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM THE E. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM
THE LWR 40S NW TO THE MID 50S OVR NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA BEGINS TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS COLDER AIR
PLUNGES S IN RESPONSE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SFC LO OFF
THE MID ATLC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND CST. STILL MAINLY RAIN ACRS THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA IN THE EVENING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW
BETWEEN 00Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. DURING THIS TIME...BEST LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
WILL RESIDE OFF THE CST OR NE OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL BE
RELYING ON DEFORMATION ZONE AND POSSIBLE BANDING DEVELOPMENT FM
THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND TO "WRAP AROUND" AND DROP S OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHR...AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN VA FM THIS EVENG
THRU TUE MORNG. THUS...BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND WPC
FCSTS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SW COUNTIES OF SCNTRL VA AND ALL OF NE NC
COUNTIES. GENERALLY...ADVSYS WILL RUN FM 8PM-1AM THIS EVENG/TNGT
TO 8AM-NOON TUE. ANY CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE BANDING CAN HAVE
DRASTIC EFFECTS ON SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
RATHER HIGH. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECAST 2-4" OF SNOW ON THE LWR MD
ERN SHR...WITH 1-3" ACRS NRN NECK/VA ERN SHR...1-2" ACRS THE ERN
VA PIEDMONT/CNTRL VA INCLUDING RIC METRO AND TRI-CITIES...THEN
TAPERED TO 1" OR LESS OVR SCNTRL VA AND SE VA INCLUDING HAMPTON
RDS AND THE TIDEWATER AREA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END LATE TUE MORNG/AFTN...BUT
IF 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THIS WOULD BE SLOWER AND ADDITIONAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED...ESPLY OVR THE LWR MD ERN SHR.
LOWS TNGT IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S...HIGHS ON TUE RANGING FM THE
MID 30S TO LWR 40S. CLEARING/COLD TUE NGT/WED WITH LOWS IN THE
20S AND HIGHS ON WED RANGING FM THE LWR/MID 40S SW TO THE LWR/MID
30S NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BLO NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WX MOST 
DAYS. FOR WED NIGHT...SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE 
STATES AS THE NEXT LO PRES SYSTM APPROACHES FM THE W. WITH A MSTLY 
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST 
SPOTS. LO PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BRING 
PRECIP (PLAIN RAIN) INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE THU. FAVORED THE 
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP (RA/SN 
NORTH AND RA SOUTH) THU NIGHT...WITH LO TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 30S. 
CONDS THEN DRY OUT INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. 
EXPECT A PRTLY CLOUDY SKY BOTH DAYS WITH NW WINDS AND HI TEMPS 
FALLING FM THE 40S ON FRI TO THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 17Z...A LULL IN THE PCPN PATTERN AND LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD 
COVER ARE TEMPORARY. AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NC/VA COAST 
...RAIN IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AND THEN 
CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT THE 
TAF SITES EXCEPT AT SBY WHERE A 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

IFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SBY FROM THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN. 
IFR STRATUS JUST NW OF RIC SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST FOR SEVERAL MORE 
HOURS ALTHOUGH INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR DUE TO A PERSISTENT SCT LAYER 
THERE. ELSEWHERE...SOLID VFR CONDS SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTN. 
AS PCPN DEVELOPS TOWARD EVENING...CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS 
EVENING...EXCEPT KEPT ECG NO LOWER THAN MVFR. PCPN WINDS DOWN AND 
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL 
PREVAIL WHICH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS TREND 
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING. 

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ONLY 
SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. 

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 11AM...HEADLINES NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS MORNING. 
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING 
OFF THE ERN NC COAST. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP THRU THE 
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND COASTAL ZONES...THEN SWD TO 
ALL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS IN THE NRN COASTAL ZONES 
ALREADY UP TO 6 FT THANKS TO NE WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD 
THRU THE DAY. PLEASE REFER TO PREV DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO. 

PREV DISCUSSION...
GALE WATCH HEADLINE HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY THROUGH
WED, WITH GALE WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. E-SE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BACK TO THE E-NE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EVENTUALITY TO THE NW LATER TODAY. SFC LOW WILL
REDEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA CST LATE TODAY, AND WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GALES
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SFC LOW. SCA'S OVER REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AS FLOW
BECOMES NW AND INCREASES TO 20-25KT. RAPID RAMP UP OF WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FT SOUTH AND 8-10 FT NORTH, W/ AT LEAST
12 FT OUT 20NM OVR NRN CSTL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES BAY UP TO
5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. NW FLOW AND LOW END SCA CONDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS SFC HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN
FM THE W. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN FOR WED NIGHT/THU.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG NLY
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO
1.5 FT...POSSIBLY HIGHER...DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SITES IN THE LOWER BAY WILL REACH
HIGHEST ASTRO TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS AT SEWELLS POINT TONIGHT. FOR OCEAN CITY...MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR MODERATE. HV GONE AHEAD WITH COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR
WORCESTER COUNTY INVOF OCEAN CITY FOR TNGT. THIS WILL GIVE THE DAY
CREW ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE LATEST GUIDANCE AND EITHER GO
WITH ADVY OR UPGRADE TO WARNING LATER TODAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 
HIGH ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOMALIES DROP
OFF TUE NGT/WED AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST 
     TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE 
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST 
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ080-081-087>090-092-093.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST 
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-061-062-068-069.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR 
     VAZ091-094>098.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST 
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ073>078-084>086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST 
     TUESDAY FOR VAZ063-064-070>072-082-083.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS/TMG
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






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