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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010143
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
943 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THE EARLY 
PORTION OF THIS WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE OF HEAT AND 
HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS EXPECTED...CONVECTION DSPTG ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS SINCE SUNSET
BUT CONVECTION STILL GOING STRONG ALONG SFC TROF MOVG EAST ACROSS
NRN VA. MODELS STILL MIXED ON JUST HOW MUCH LONGER AND HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS CONVECTION GETS...SO KEPT CHC POPS FROM THE NRN NECK
ON EAST TOWARD THE LWR MD & VA ERN SHORE AREAS THROUGH ERLY MORNING
HRS AS TROF SLOW TO MOVE EAST. OTW...PT TO MSTLY CLDY AND MUGGY.
LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL LINGER JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GRT LAKES ON MONDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/QUEBEC TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL REMAIN
LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD AND THE AVAILABILITY OF A CONVECTIVE
TRIGGER WILL BE LACKING. GIVEN THIS...POPS WILL REMAIN NO HIGHER
THAN 20% MONDAY...CENTERED MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AS W/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER
THE PIEDMONT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE APPROACHING
ASSOCIATED (WEAK) COLD FRONT, WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NW TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIKELY
WASHING OUT/DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT. COULD SEE AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOP ALONG DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT (WEDNESDAY MORNING)...BUT OVERALL
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WHAT'S LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
DROP TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. HAVE UPPED CLOUD COVER
A BIT AND RETAINED A 20-30 POP FOR SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE THE TROUGH...WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT.
THICKNESS TOOLS/850MB TEMPS/STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED
THEIR UPWARD TREND, AND ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING HIGHS
SOLIDLY INTO THE 90S INLAND TOMORROW THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS
INCREMENTALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE LOW 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST)...WITH MID 90S INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE
COASTLINES. WHILE NO RECORDS APPEAR IN JEOPARDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, HIGHS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WOULD AVERAGE ABOUT +1.5 ST DEV
ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND SHOULD BE THE WARMEST READINGS IN OUR
AREA SINCE JULY 23. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL 
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE 
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN 
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT 
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO 
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN 
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS 
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST. 
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE 
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG 
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S 
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO
PRECLUDE MORE THAN JUST VERY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PASS THROUGH KSBY TONIGHT. THUS INTRODUCED VCTS ~04Z AT
KSBY WITH FURTHER MONITORING NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK. 
THE RESULT IS ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY 
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES WILL 
REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY 
APPROACHES FM THE W. EXPECT SLY WINDS THIS EVENG AVGG 10-15 KT OVR 
THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT OVR CSTL WTRS. WAVES OVR THE BAY 
WILL BE 1-3 FT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS 
INTO MON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. WITH RELATIVELY WARM 
WATERS...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVR THE BAY BOTH 
EVENGS AS FLOW CHANNELS UP THE BAY...FOR NOW WILL CAP AT 15 KT. 
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD 
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND WEAKENS...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY 
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM 
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT 
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/WRS
MARINE...MAS






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