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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130830
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
430 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CENTER OF SFC HI PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND CST
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. MEANWHILE...LO PRES WILL LIFT NWRD FM
TX/LA BORDER INTO ARKANSAS BY THE END OF THE DAY. MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN LO WILL ADVANCE ENE INTO THE MID ATLC
REGION THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. SO...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LWR
ACRS THE AREA DURING TODAY...WITH AN INCREASING CHC OF RAIN FM W
TO E THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TNGT THRU SAT MORNG...AS LO PRES
TRACKS FM THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN MID-ATLC...AND LIFTS A
WARM FRONT ACRS THE LOCAL AREA. THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE
RAIN LATE SAT MORNG INTO EARLY SAT AFTN...AS THE BEST LIFT PUSHES
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS
FM MID SAT AFTN THRU SAT EVENG...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ADDED A SLGT CHC OF THUNDER FOR SAT
AFTN/EVENG...DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE CST AND SE OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUN
MORNG. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE MAINLY FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. MAX
TEMPS ON SAT WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S TO NEAR 70. DRIER WX RETURNS
FM NW TO SE LATE SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUN MORNG...ALONG WITH A CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT WILL RANGE FM THE LWR 40S EXTRM
NNW...TO THE LWR 50S SE. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD IN FM THE NNW
DURING SUN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE LWR TO MID 50S OVR THE LWR MD
AND VA ERN SHR...TO THE MID 60S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF/GEM DIFFER ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE..WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. FOR SUN NIGHT/MON...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL
BE SITUATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WILL PUSH INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE GULF
COAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND NE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON MON MILD..WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NE TO THE LOWER-
MID 60S SW. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT/TUE...AND WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUE. COLD AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER AND WITH PARTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WE SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM
DAY TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S NE TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE. AS THE
UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES OVER NEW ENGLAND BY WED...THIS WILL DRIVE
COOLER SFC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES BY WED
MORNING. LOWS IN THE 30S WED...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 40S NE TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. MODELS DIVERGE INTO DAY
7/THU WITH THE HANDLING OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIVING SE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA SO CONFIDENCE BECOMING FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT. THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SW AND
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY WITH A LIGHT NE WIND
BECOMING SE. CIGS THICKEN AND LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH AREAS OF -RA ARRIVING FROM THE W AND OVERSPREADING
THE REGION FROM 00-06Z. THIS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING N ACROSS THE REGION. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY FROM RIC-SBY IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STEADY -RA GIVES WAY TO
SCT SHRA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA.
A SW WIND OF 10-15KT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT
POSSIBLE OVER SE VA/NE NC. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING A DRYING TREND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA PRIMARILY OVER THE ERN SHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS 
MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID 
ATLANTIC COAST FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE 
AREA HAS A NE WIND AOB 5KT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 10KT OUT NEAR 20NM. 
3-4FT SWELL PERSISTS OFF THE COASTS OF VA BEACH AND THE CURRITUCK 
OUTER BANKS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 
MIDDAY...AND THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW 
THE WIND TO VEER TO SE BY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KT. A WARM 
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE WIND BECOMING 
SSW LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS 
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST OF SRN NEW 
ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN STABLE 
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MILD AIRMASS OVER COLD WATER. GIVEN 
THIS...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AOB 15KT OVER THE OPEN 
WATER (AND WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER OVER LAND AREAS IN SE VA/NE NC 
WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE GUSTS 
OVER THE WATER WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 20 KT). A COLD FRONT 
CROSSES THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ONCE 
AGAIN...CAA IS RATHER WEAK AND ANY SCA POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW-END AT 
BEST. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NNW SURGE IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO 
EARLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND 
NEW ENGLAND. AGAIN THE CAA SURGE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC IS WEAK...AND 
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN 
MARINE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AND 
SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
TRACKS N OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WIND TO SHIFT TO S/SW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ






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