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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240551
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
151 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT FORECAST. DID SLOW DOWN THE DROP
IN TEMPS THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME AREAS
OF CLOUDS AND WIND HOLDING TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTN. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. THIS HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND EXPECT DRY WX INTO TONIGHT. STILL A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN SHORE ATTM...WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SW.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY DAYBREAK. DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LOWS TONIGHT FROM NR 40 WEST TO NEAR 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE LOW TO OUR NE SKIRTS ATLANTIC CANADA.
SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BOTH DAYS WITH MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSED THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN INCREASE WINDS FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY WHILE SUNSHINE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL. HIGHS IN THE UPR 60S NE TO LOW/MID 70S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH 
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE 
COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE 
DRY/RAIN-FREE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...TEMPS WILL BEGIN 
TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL 
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 
40S SUN NIGHT (LOW-MID 50S BEACHES)...IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S 
MON NIGHT (MID 50S BEACHES)...AND IN THE 50S TUE NIGHT. THE NEXT 
COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 
THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT. EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES WITH 
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS WEDNESDAY 
PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING
4-5K FT CEILINGS PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN SHORE.
OTHERWISE, DEEP LOW PRES SYS NOW EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NE TODAY...EVENTUALLY LOCATING EAST OF MAINE BY THIS AFTN.
PRES GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF OVER
THE CWA. NW WINDS 8-12 KT WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDS LOOK TO PERSIST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...EVENTUALLY SLIDING
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL WATERS AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FAR NRN COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL BE IN SCA DUE TO SEAS AROUND 5FT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. CURRENT CONDITIONS CONSIST OF GUSTY
NW WINDS (15-25KT/GUSTS 25-30KT)...SEAS AVERAGING 4-8FT...AND
WAVES OF 3-5FT IN THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
PROCESSES WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE EVEN SLOWER
TO RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND THE NEW ENGLAND LOW BEGINS TO DEPART THE NORTHEAST
COAST. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF NW SURGE FRI EVENING IN NRN CHES BAY AND THE
NRN COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS
UNTIL THE CURRENT SET HAS EXPIRED. SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND WILL AVERAGE 2-4FT/2-3FT RESPECTIVELY.

A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. NNW WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND TO THE SW ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
THEN VEER TO THE NW AFTER IT PASSES THE AREA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A COLD AIR SURGE
OVER CHES BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS YET AGAIN. SCA MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT...MAYBE UP
TO 5 FT NEAR BUOY 44009. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON
MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     ANZ630>632-634-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...BMD/JEF
AVIATION...MAM/DAP
MARINE...BMD








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