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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260058
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLOUDS OVER NE NC...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW SHOWERS TRIED TO MVOE INTO BERTIE COUNTY AN HOUR OR SO
AGO...BY DISSIPATED BEFORE MOVING INTO THE COUNTY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TEMPS AT 00Z
GENERALLY IN LINE WITH GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER...TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREADS ARE ALREADY 10 DEGREES OR LESS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF NE NC...AND INTERIOR SE VA AND THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...AND DEW POINTS LIKE TO REMAIN STABLE OR
RISE A LITTLE...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE AREA ROUGHLY BOUNDED
ON THE NORTH/EAST BY FVX TO AKQ TO FKN TO BETWEEN EDE AND ECG. THIS IS
ALSO AN AREA THAT RECEIVED A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN YESTERDAY. IF DEW
POINTS RISE FURTHER NORTH...FOG COULD WELL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH
AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...HAVE KEPT SKIES PER CURRENT FORECAST...AND
LEFT MINS AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK S/W TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTRN/EVE. MEANWHILE...THE
OLD FRNTL BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY SAT 
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE 
PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP ACROSS MOST 
OF THE FA. GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVG EAST ACROSS NRN 
VA...DECIDED TO ADD ISLTD POPS TO NRN NECK & LWR MD ERN SHORE SAT 
AFTRN. DRY ELSEWHERE. H85 TMPS RISE A BIT RESULTING IN HIGH TMPS
IN THE U80S-L90S WEST OF THE BAY...M80S ALONG THE COAST. WARMER AND 
MORE HUMID SAT NIGHT. LOWS U60S-L70S. 

NEXT S/W DROPS SE FROM THE UPR MID WEST SUN. THIS BEGINS TO CARVE
OUT AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. 
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY WITH THE
INITIAL S/W PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF FA. THERMAL TROF DVLPS 
WITH ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB PROGGED TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DVLP ACROSS
THE MTS THEN DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE FA SUN AFTRN/NIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG
COLD FRONT. SPC DY3 OUTLOOK HAS VA/MD IN A SLGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL DUE TO POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LATER IN THE
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS IN FCST FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHC ACROSS
NWRN MOST COUNTIES. HEAT / HUMIDITY RETURN WITH HIGHS U80S ALONG
THE COAST...90-95 WEST OF BAY.

KEPT CHC POPS GOING SUN NIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPRCHS. LOWS 70-75.

MONDAYS FORECAST RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS STRNG COLD FRONT COMES THRU 
EARLY ENOUGH FOR MORNING CONVECTION WITH PSBL DRYING BY LATE IN THE 
DAY. KEPT CHC POPS HERE WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS 
U80S-L90S GIVEN DOWNSLOPING W WINDS & SOME AFTRN HTNG BEHIND FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOING WITH A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE 
EXTENDED PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO AND OVR THE MID ATLC REGION 
MON NGT INTO EARLY THU...BEFORE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE OH AND MS 
VALLEYS THU AFTN THRU FRI. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST MON NGT 
AND TUE...LINGERS FARTHER OFF THE CST TUE NGT THRU THU...THEN 
POSSIBLY DRIFTS BACK TWD THE CST LATE FRI. OTHER THAN A SLGT OR SML 
CHC FOR SHOWERS OVR EXTRM SE VA AND NE NC MON NGT INTO TUE 
MORNG...WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD. A MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TUE INTO 
THU...BEFORE A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY RETURNS ON FRI. MAX TEMPS WILL 
GENERALLY BE IN THE LWR TO MID 80S THRU THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL 
RANGE FM THE LWR 60S TO LWR 70S TUE MORNG...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO 
MID 60S WED AND THU MORNGS...AND RANGE THRU THE 60S FRI MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND AS IT DOES THE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MID DECK CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG AT ECG AND PHF. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ADD SOME MVFR LEVEL FOG BETWEEN 7Z
AND 11Z...BUT WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUPPORT THE FOG WITH THE SE FLOW.

ON SATURDAY...WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOP AT ALL SITES SO
HAVE ADDED THE SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 16Z...AND
POTENTIALLY COULD HAVE SOME BKN DECKS AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
NOT INTRODUCED ANY SHWRS OR TSTORMS...BUT WITH NW FLOW AND A WEAK
TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED
STORM IS POSSIBLE. 

S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 15KT EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A 
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. 
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE 
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF 
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TNGT THRU SUN. HI PRES OVR THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN...WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST TNGT. N THRU E WINDS 5 TO
10 KT...WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OR S TNGT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KT SAT NGT...THEN BECOME SW 10 TO 15 KT FOR SUN INTO SUN
NGT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THRU THE WTRS DURING MON...THEN MOVES OFF THE CST MON NGT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT AOB 15 KT INTO TUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/WRS
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...ESS/DAP
MARINE...TMG






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