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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222101
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST CHRISTMAS DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1031 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NOVIA SCOTIA...RIDGING SW INTO THE NRN MID ATLC REGION. WEDGE/CAD
SETUP IS IN PLACE BUT TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT
THE CWA RANGING FROM 34-35 ACRS THE NW PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER-MID
50S AT KECG. SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. BEST LIFT AND OMEGA HAS SHIFTED TO THE ERN SHORE
WITH MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS ACRS SW ZONES TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
ELSEWHERE EVEN THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CHANGE ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM CURRENT VALUES...WITH LOWS 33-35 F
OVER NW PIEDMONT...TO 45-50 F SE COASTAL AREAS. DEW PTS HAVE RISEN
TODAY...AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND LATER TONIGHT AND TUE
(AS COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS)...THINK FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE (INCLUDING THE WATER). HAVE FOG IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MIDDAY (AT LEAST) ON
TUE. AS FOR POPS LATER TONIGHT...GENLY EXPECTING ONLY MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL QPF AS IR SATELLITE SHOWS AREA OF COOLING CLOUD
TOPS/HEAVIER PRECIP ALONG THE COAST LIKELY TO STAY OFFSHORE.
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME INCREASE IN POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT W/ NEXT
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT SO WILL CARRY HIGH CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

FAVORE COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TUE...GIVEN A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION. HIGHS GENLY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER-MID 40S WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID-UPPER 50S FAR SE ZONES. MOT
MUCH SUPPORT FOR PRECIP OTHER THAN CONTINUED DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF
FOG. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUE NIGHT/ WEDNESDAY...SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS THE
REGION LATER TUE NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO BE WARM
SECTORED ON WED. STILL DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH ~990 MB SFC LOW
TRACKING NNE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY
WED. DEW PTS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MID 60S IN STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WED...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC FOR
FOR LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS ON WED (CHRISTMAS EVE). AT THIS POINT
THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING POTENTIAL
(HIGH SHEAR BUT VERY MINIMAL CAPE) ON WED TO LEAD TO SEVERE WX.
TIMING ALSO A BIT SLOWER...ACTUAL FRONT NOW PROGGED TO PUSH
THROUGH AROUND 06Z/THU. HIGHS WED INTO THE M-U60S TO LOWER 70S (CLOSE
TO RECORD HIGHS/SEE CLIMATE SECTION). CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS
WED...SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATER WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BY CHRISTMAS
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY DRY CONDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPS. FOR THU...AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRNT AND 
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PUSH OFFSHORE AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVR THE SE 
STATES. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS THRU THE DAY WITH A BREEZY W WIND 
AND HI TEMPS IN THE LO TO MID 50S. THE HI SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO 
FRI...WITH S/SW FLOW DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC AND TEMPS 
CLIMBING INTO THE LO TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRNT WILL CROSS THE 
REGION FRI NGT/SAT. LO PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRNT OVR THE 
WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THIS WILL 
MAINTAIN SILENT POPS FOR NOW. HI TEMPS SAT STILL IN THE LO TO MID 
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE OUTER BANKS ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING SOUTH WILL CONTINUE THE COOL/RAINY PERIOD THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH IFR VIS/CIGS. EXPECT 15-20 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
TUE AFTN HELPING TO KEEP IFR STRATUS AND VIS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND COMPLEX FRONTAL 
BOUNDARIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS 
AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDS AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST 
TODAY...THEN WEAKENS TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE DELMARVA. E-NE WINDS 
WILL GENERALLY AVG 10-15 KT TODAY ON THE MIDDLE BAY AND THE 
RIVERS...AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS/LOWER BAY/CURRITUCK 
SOUND. MIGHT EVEN GET SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN 
WATERS. WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE LOWER BAY TODAY...WITH SEAS 3-4 
FT ON THE OCEAN...EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT SOUTH. DID GO AHEAD AND ADD THE 
COASTAL ZONE SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES TO THE SCA AS SEAS LOOK TO REACH 
5 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH THE LOW 
LIFTING NORTH...REMAINING FROM AN E-NE DIRECTION NORTH AND TURNING 
OFFSHORE SOUTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT OUT 
AROUND 20 NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT 
HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE AN SCA ATTM. 

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE 
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SE WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO 
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. 
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY 
WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO SCA THRESHOLDS (SAVE 
THE RIVERS). THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT AND 
OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THRU LATE 
THURSDAY WHILE BECOMING SW THEN W. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THU NIGHT 
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL 
GENERALLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ON WED BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN BY LATE THU. 
WAVES WILL REACH 4 FT ON THE CHES BAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/WED 12/24:

RICHMOND.......71 F (1988)
NORFOLK........75 F (1891)
SALISBURY......67 F (1990)
ELIZ CITY NC...75 F (1990)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...BMD/JDM
CLIMATE...AKQ






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