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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
924 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA 
TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ANOTHER SUMMERY AFTN W/ SCT CU AND HEAT INDICES RANGING THROUGH
THE 90S. MUCH LESS COVERAGE TO PCPN ATTM...AND TRENDS IN HI-RES
MDLS SUPPORTS IDEA OF LESS CONVECTION THIS EVE AS COMPARED TO WED
EVE. WILL CONT TO CARRY 20-30% FM THE BAY W THROUGH ABT
01-04Z/04...W/ ONLY AN ISOLD TSTM PSBL INVOF BAY/ERN SHORE AND OVR
THE OCN. PARTLY CLOUDY-SKC OVRNGT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 
U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE CONUS DURING THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAKNESS UNDER THE RIDGE LOCATES OVER THE MDATLC-SE 
STATES...RESULTING IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LARGE SCALE CONFLUENCE
OVER ERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...PUSHING A BACKDOOR FRONT
INTO THE RGN FRI MRNG-AFTN. SFC WNDS TURN TO THE NE
FRI...RESULTING IN THE BEGINNINGS OF A COOL DOWN. A WARM/MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SREF MLCAPE VALUES 1000-1500
J/KG) WILL REMAIN OVVR THE FA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MORE STABLE
ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC TO
CHC POPS E AND CNTRL...BUT HAVE CONTD W/ SOLID CHANCE (40-50%) OVR
THE PIEDMONT AS WEAK S/W DROPS OVR THE RGN. VRB CLDS- PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDS W/ HI TEMPS FM THE M-U80S INVOF ERN SHORE/ALG THE CST
TO THE U80S-ARND 90F INLAND.

THE WX FM FRI NGT THROUGH SUN LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN BEFORE.
PDS OF LO LVL CLDS XPCD INTO SUN W/ CONTD ENE WNDS. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH NR THE CST LT FRI NGT. MDLS TDA ARE LESS EMPHATIC ABT DRIER
AIR MASS PUSHING SSW INTO/ACRS THE FA THIS WKND. COMBO HI PRES TO
THE NNE AND LO PRES OVR SE CONUS TO KEEP MOIST ONSHORE WNDS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF WK IMPULSES TRACKING ACRS THE FA FM THE E. WILL HAVE
20-40% POPS SAT-SUN...HIGHEST IN SE VA/NE NC. CONTD BREEZY (GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH NR THE CST IN ERN VA/NE NC) ON SAT...LESS WND XPCD
SUN. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M-U70S NR THE CST TO ARND 80F INLAND. LO
TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE U70S TO
L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SUN NGT AND MON WITH SFC LO PRES
SPINNING OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH HI PRES N AND W OF THE FA.
RESULTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO TEMPS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
MID 80S MON UNDER A PRTLY-MSTLY SKY. WITH THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
SUN NGT/MON. KEPT THUNDER OUT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE
SFC LO WEAKENS AND STARTS SLIDING E TUE ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDS
AND TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID/UPR 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLOUDY
SKY. DRY WX CONTINUES MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS FURTHER INCREASING AS SLY
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT...WITH HI TEMPS IN THE
UPR 80S TO NR 90 WED AND THUR. THE FRNT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE THU OR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL REMAINING ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NO
TAF SITES ARE AT RISK FOR ANY ACTIVITY. EXPECT SOME AREAS OF MVFR
FOG/HAZE TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE CHC FOR PTCHY IFR
CONDS. SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY ALONG
BACKDOOR COLDFRONT PASSAGE.

DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE
OCEAN/BAY/LWR JAMES. FOR TNGT...WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE WTRS
WILL LEAD TO VRB WINDS UNDER 10 KT. NE FLOW THEN DEVELOPS FRI AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRNT DROPS TWRDS THE REGION AND HI PRES OVERSPREADS
THE NE STATES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY OVER ALL
WTRS...TO 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN BY THE EVENG HRS AND LWR
JAMES BY ERLY OVRNGT. AT THE SAME TIME...WAVES OVER THE LWR BAY
WILL INCREASE TO 4 FT WITH SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS UP TO 6 FT. THE SCA
WILL RUN THRU THE END OF THE 4TH PERIOD FOR NOW (SAT AFTN) BUT
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER OUT IN TIME ESPECIALLY OVER CSTL
WTRS WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT LIKELY CONTINUING INTO SAT NGT/SUN. IN
ADDITION...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HI WAVES WILL ENHANCE THE RIP
CURRENT THREAT FOR THE HOLIDAY WKEND. GUID CONTS TO BUILD TIDES
TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NRML BY SAT...CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HI
WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN TURN
TO THE S MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRNT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR 
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY 
     FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS



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