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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010618
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID 
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA 
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE...LOW LEVELS ARE SLOWLY SATURATING IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT
AS TEMP/DEWPOINT OBS COME IN WITHIN 5 DEGREES OR LESS OF EACH
OTHER. BEST RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG INTERSTATE
81...SOUTH OF 460 AND EAST OF I-77...AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING ENE.
RAINFALL SHOULD FINALLY MOVE INTO THE PIEDMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL VA WHERE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES EARLIER THIS EVENING
HELPED TO PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS HERE ARE STARTING TO
LEVEL OFF (AS PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER STREAMING IN FROM THE SW. ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/POPS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE OVERALL
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (403 PM)...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PIEDMONT...WITH A 1005MB AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS...WHICH HAS FORMED IN RESPONSE TO
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGS BACK OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND THIS WILL
BECOME THE PRIMARY FEATURE INTO SAT. THE LEADING WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL TO THE NE TONIGHT...AS THE STRONGER WAVE
CONTINUES TO DIG SSE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS (ONCE
AFTERNOON CU DISSIPATE) AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN A REGION OF
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. 12Z HIGH-RES DATA DOES
INDICATE SOME MOISTURE COULD BACK INTO THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE LATE
TONIGHT SEEMINGLY RELATED TO A NE FETCH ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
CONVEYOR BELT. A HIGH CHC TO LOW END- LIKELY (50-60%) PROBABILITY
HAS BEEN INCLUDED LATE TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S LATE THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD
BE THE EVENTUAL OVERNIGHT LOWS AS TEMPERATURES BECOME STEADY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS SIMILAR. A STRONG SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE 
CAROLINAS SAT. GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH RESPECT TO A CLOSED 
UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MIDDAY SAT...WITH SURFACE 
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE OUTER BANKS SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE SURFACE 
LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO THE NE LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH 
~1032MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW THROUGH SUN 
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SUBSIDENCE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE 
AREA (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ERN SHORE AND FAR SW PIEDMONT) 
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT. THE CHC OF RAIN THEN INCREASES SAT AFTERNOON 
ACROSS NE NC/SE VA AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. OVERALL QPF 
AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25IN. THE HIGHEST 
AMOUNTS (0.25-0.50IN) SHOULD BE ACROSS THE ERN SHORE WHERE THE 
DURATION OF RAIN SHOULD BE LONGEST.

A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WIND (25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO ~45MPH) IS 
EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AND 
STRONG CAA COMMENCES. AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE 
ALONG THE ATLC BEACHES AND LWR CHES BAY (SEE COASTAL FLOODING 
SECTION BELOW). A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER AT LEAST SOME OF 
THE COASTAL ZONES SAT NIGHT FOR A 6-10 HOUR PERIOD. THIS WILL REMAIN 
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. 

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE 
DEPARTING WAVE. THE SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING 
(ALTHOUGH A BAND OF SC COULD DEVELOP OFF THE BAY SUNDAY DUE TO THE 
COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING OVER SSTS ~62-64F). THE SURFACE HIGH OF 
CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST 
BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON 
TO DATE. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 N/NE...TO THE MID 
50S S. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE SEASON SHOULD OCCUR LATE 
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING AS LOWS DROP TO 28-32 OVER THE INTERIOR 
COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT. ENOUGH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY 
LINGER CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 
30S.

THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY...WITH SSW FLOW RESUMING ACROSS THE 
REGION. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S UNDER A 
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY GENERAL MODERATION OF 
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE 
SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH RESULTANT 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING MAXIMA TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S TO 
LOWER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS MODERATING 
BACK INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WED AND THU MORNING.

ALOFT, UPPER PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER RIDGING, WHICH 
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AND SLIP OFFSHORE LATE WED/THU. NORTHERN 
STREAM DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER 
GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK 
SURFACE FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA BY LATE WED NGT/THURSDAY. ONCE 
AGAIN, THE BEST FORCING/DYNAMICS LOOK TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE 
NORTH/NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, SUSPECT THE FROPA WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE 
LITTLE MOISTURE WITH WHICH TO WORK. WILL KEEP POP NO HIGHER THAN 20% 
FOR WED/THU...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURE POST 
FRONTAL LATE IN THE INTO THE 60S, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS NEAR CLIMO 
VALUES FRIDAY AND SAT MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLC CST EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL
STRENGTHEN OFFSHR WHILE LIFTING NE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG. NNE
FLO/WINDS WILL INCREASE ACRS THE AREA...ESPLY LATER THIS MORNG
INTO THIS EVENG. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CLOUDS TO MVFR CIGS
AND ISLTD IFR CIGS ALONG WITH -RA. THE LO WILL PULL AWAY TO OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND CST AND TWD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE TNGT INTO
SUN AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES SUN
MORNG...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LINGER THRU THE DAY ON SUN. HI
PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR THE REGION SUN AFTN INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA FLAGS FOR THE SOUND AND SRN COASTAL WATERS
FROM VA/NC BORDER TO CURRITUCK LIGHT UNTIL 1 AM AND 4 AM
RESPECTIVELY. AS STRONGER WINDS SHIFT SWD OVER THIS TIME...SEAS
WILL BE AROUND 5 FT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST OBS REFLECT N-NE WINDS THIS AFTN
10-15KT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE STALLED
COASTAL FRONT ORIENTED OFFSHORE. WINDS HV INCREASED TO LOW
END/MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA THIS AFTN AND HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVY OVER THE LOWER BAY AND SOUND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR THE MID EVENING HOURS INTO EARLY SAT AS
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER NE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND FARTHER OFFSHORE...
TO A POSITION OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE TONIGHT.

WINDS WL BE RAMPING UP AGAIN TOWARDS SUNRISE SAT MORNING, AS LOW 
PRESSURE DEVELOPS RAPIDLY NEAR HATTERAS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS INCREASE 
AS THIS LOW PRES STRENGTHENS OFF THE NC CST SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO 
A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. SCA OVR NRN CSTL WTRS (ADDED 
PARRAMORE TO CAPE CHARLES LGT TO EXISTING SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 
SATURDAY BEFORE THE GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT SATURDAY NIGHT. A 
PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS IS EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA, WHILE CONDITIONS 
ELSEWHERE OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES LOOK TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY 
ENOUGH SAT AFTN TO WARRANT GOING DIRECTLY TO THE GALE HEADLINE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG NNW WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN TIDAL DEPARTURES ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 FT ABOVE
NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOWER BAY.
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS AS THE SURGE
APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST 
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY 
     FOR ANZ630>634-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY 
     FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/BMD
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/DAP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ






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