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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 252153
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
453 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING...AND 
THEN TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A 
SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THANKSGIVING 
DAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY 
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING FROM 
THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG 
TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS TX...WITH A 160KT JET DOWNSTREAM EXTENDING 
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA. STRONG LIFT IN THE RRQ 
OF THE JET IS IN VICINITY OF THE MOIST FRONTAL BAND...WHICH IS 
TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM THE GULF...NE ACROSS FL...AND 
OVER THE GULF STREAM. AT THE SURFACE...A 1011MB LOW IS ANALYZED OVER 
THE NE GULF...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NE ALONG THE COAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER ORGANIZE AND TRACK NE 
ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVERNIGHT...REACHING NEAR CAPE 
HATTERAS BY 12Z WED. A PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL (700MB) 
FRONTOGENESIS...WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS
N...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS N ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
50S TO LOW 60S...AND WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT.
READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW...TO UPPER 40S/AROUND
50 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING 
AS MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP AND FORCING REMAINS STRONG. CAA REMAINS 
RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL COOLING SHOULD DRIVE TEMPERATURES 
DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES THROUGH WED 
MORNING...WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE 
SURFACE/850MB LOW AND CLIMO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE 
ACCUMULATING SN WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES. AT 
THIS TIME SN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE AROUND OR LESS THAN ONE INCH 
OVER LOUISA/FLUVANNA...WITH THE BORDERING COUNTIES EXPERIENCING 
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN ON THE 
GRASS AND OTHER NON-PAVED SURFACES SO NO ADVISORY IS NECESSARY. 
MOISTURE SHALLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO PCPN SHOULD STEADILY 
LESSEN IN INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING LATE WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 
LOCATIONS THAT CHANGE TO SN COULD ACTUALLY SWITCH BACK OVER TO -RA 
AS THE INTENSITY WANES. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 
2.0-2.5IN OVER SE VA/NE NC...TO 1.0-1.5IN ELSEWHERE.

A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT...BEFORE A SECONDARY CLIPPER-TYPE 
SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THANKSGIVING 
DAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHC OF -SHRA OR -SHSN (OR A MIX THEREOF) TO 
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA. LOCALIZED LIGHT SN ACCUMULATION IS 
POSSIBLE...BUT AGAIN SHOULD ONLY BE ON THE GRASS AND OTHER NON-PAVED 
SURFACES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH 
PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FROM W-E. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM 
AROUND 30 NW...TO THE MID 30S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE 
MID/UPPER 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING MOSTLY 
CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL 
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S 
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FCST FOR THE REGION WITH MILDER
TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN AND MON. HI PRES WILL SETTLE OFF THE MID
ATLC AND SE CST FOR SAT INTO MON. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP ACRS
THE AREA MON AFTN/NGT WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE ISLTD PCPN.
THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS NEW ENGLAND ON TUE. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SAT...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S
SUN AND MON...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO UPR 50S TUE. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SAT MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S
SUN MORNG...IN THE 40S MON MORNG...AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S
TUE MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTN AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NRN FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY (SE COAST/CAROLINAS) AND INTENSIFY
TONIGHT...MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A
STEADY STREAM OF PRECIPITATION WILL PASS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE
AREA THIS AFTN/EVENING AND THEN SPREAD INLAND TO COVER ALL OF 
NE NC...ERN/CNTRL VA...AND THE MD/VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE AFTER
26/0500Z (OR MIDNIGHT EST). CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO LOW- END IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STEADY PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
AS RAINFALL RATES BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW MAY
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RASN WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING GENERALLY
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KSBY- KRIC-KAVC. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AROUND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE VICINITY OF KLKU...
INCLUDING LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES. GUSTY N-NW WINDS DEVELOP BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AVERAGE 10-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF
25-35KT LIKELY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN ADVERSE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED LATE 
WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST
AND DISSIPATING. COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW OR -RASN ALONG AND NW OF A GENERAL LINE FROM
KSBY-KRIC-KFVX. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE MUCH FASTER THAN 
CIGS...WHICH ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE/LIFT/BREAK-UP BY
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO NE
ALNG OR JUST OFF THE EAST CST THIS EVENG INTO WED NGT. DATA
SUPPORTIVE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVR CSTL WTRS (UP TO 40 KTS) AND
SRN CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SND (35 KTS) WED. SO...WILL MAINTAIN GALE
WRNGS FOR THESE AREAS DURING WED...WITH STRONG SCA'S ACRS THE
MIDDLE BAY AND RIVERS. WINDS N-NE TO START THEN SWITCH TO NW...AS
THE SYSTEM LIFTS N OF THE AREA WED NGT. THE LONGER TRAJECTORY
OVER THE WTRS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT ALLOWS SEAS TO BLD TO
BTWN 6-10 FT (HIGHEST OUT NEAR 20 NM).

SCA'S WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE GALES WED NGT...AS THE LO QUICKLY
MOVES NE AND AWAY FM THE AREA. A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS THU MORNG
BEFORE YET ANOTHER CAA SURGE SEEN THU EVENG INTO FRI MORNG BEHIND
UPR LVL LO THAT EXITS OFF THE CST. HI PRES BLDS OVR THE AREA FRI
AFTN/NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MD/VA ZONES ADJACENT TO THE
ATLC WATERS AND THE LOWER BAY DUE TO STRONG NNE FLOW WED MORNING
LEADING TO WATER LEVELS WITHIN A FEW TENTHS OF MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGH TIDE CYCLE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO 1.50" TO 2.50" WILL ALSO TEND TO EXACERBATE THE
FLOODING TO SOME EXTENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUE IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
ANOMALIES SHOULD FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATER WED/WED NIGHT AS
WINDS TURN NW/OFFSHORE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS. 

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE ASOS AT SALISBURY MD IS EXPERIENCING HARDWARE FAILURES.
TECHNICIANS ARE EXPECTED TO VISIT THE SITE THIS EVENING...BUT A
RETURN TO SERVICE TIME IS UNKNOWN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     ANZ635>637.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     ANZ630-631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     ANZ638.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ654-656-
     658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LKB
EQUIPMENT...AKQ






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