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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE FOR THURSDAY. 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE CST TNGT INTO TUE. BREEZY WEST WINDS
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN...WILL CALM DOWN
AND TURN TO THE NW THEN N TNGT INTO TUE MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN JUST
A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR TSTM INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...MAINLY OVR
NE NC...AS THE FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE TNGT
WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S EXTRM NW...TO THE UPR 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND RATHER PLEASANT TUE AND WED (ESPLY TUE)...AS SFC HI PRES
BLDS INTO AND OVR THE AREA...DESPITE LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
(SITTING) OVR THE MID ATLC REGION. AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD
OCCUR OVR NE NC TUE AFTN...AS THE BASE OF THE UPR LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THRU THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SFC LO LINGERING JUST
OFF THE NC CST. UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TUE
NGT WITH LOWS RANGING FM THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S MOST PLACES.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR TO MID 80S.
MOSTLY CLEAR WED NGT WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FM THE UPR 50S TO MID
60S. HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST FOR THU...WITH E THRU S FLO ACRS
THE AREA. SLGT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S (MAYBE SOME UPR 80S).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STAYS 
DRY THU NGT/FRIDAY...WITH SOME SCT (MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN) SHRAS 
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE 
MIDDLE MS VLY AND A COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL LOCATE 
ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL ALSO 
BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS SAME WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT 
WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 
CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RIDING INTO THE L-M 80S. EARLY MORNING LOWS 
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAT MORNING, INCREMENTALLY INCREASING TO U60S 
TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS OVER THE CWA. STRONG LOW PRES SYS OVER NEW ENGLAND
BRINGING W-NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME N-NE OVERNIGHT AND TUE. 

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY VFR IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG COULD DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE
LATE TIN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A 
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. 
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE 
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF 
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT W-SW FLOW 10-15 KT (15-20 KT IN THE LOWER CHES 
BAY) OUT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PRESENTLY DROPPING 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY RUNNING 2-3 FT 
THIS AFTN, HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL THE 
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE NNW AFTER 00Z 
AS MODEST CAA SURGE RIDES DOWN THE BAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO SCA FOR 
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTN, BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BRIEFLY 
LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LULL, CONTINUED 
SCA OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH 
THE IDEA OF WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HANDLE 
WORDING OF RAMP UP OF WINDS IN THE MWW/CWF.

WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND DIMINISH AOB 10KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS, WITH ONSHORE 
FLOW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED 
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS VEERING 
AROUND TO THE S-SW LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING 
AGAIN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...MAM






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