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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 130620
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
220 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...THEN PUSHES OFF THE 
COAST ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES 
AND CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1038MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED VIC OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
RIDGING SWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. RESULT IS DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ROUNDING THE TOP OF A MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
REGION...BUT WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AS CIRRUS
ACROSS THE CNTRL FA APPEARS RATHER THIN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS STILL FORECAST IN
THE UPPER 20S/NR 30 EASTERN SHORE TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON 
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE 
WESTERN GULF COAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE 
DAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO THE 
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH 
LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY 
WORK DOWN TO THE SFC BY THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING 
CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE EVENING. WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS 
(20%) IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BEFORE 18Z...THEN WILL SHOW 
LIKELY POPS IN THE PIEDMONT AFTER 18Z...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC 
POPS ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND HAMPTON ROADS BEFORE 00Z SAT. HIGHS 
FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE UPR 50S SOUTH. 

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS LOW 
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN 
MID-ATLANTIC...AND LIFTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THERE 
COULD BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY 
AFTN...AS THE BEST LIFT PUSHES OFFSHORE...SO WILL SHOW DIMINISHING 
POPS AFTER 18Z. COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE AREA 
SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN A LINGERING CHC FOR SHOWERS. LOWS 
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LWR 40S NW TO THE LWR 50S SE. HIGHS 
ON SAT WILL RANGE FROM NR 60 EASTERN SHORE TO NR 70 SOUTH. DRIER WX 
RETURNS FROM NW TO SE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH DECREASING 
CLOUDS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE LWR 40S NW TO THE LWR 50S SE. 
DRY NW FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. HIGHS 
FROM THE LOW 50S EASTERN SHORE TO THE MID 60S SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF/GEM DIFFER ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE..WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. FOR SUN NIGHT/MON...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL
BE SITUATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WILL PUSH INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE GULF
COAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND NE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ON MON MILD..WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NE TO THE LOWER-
MID 60S SW. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT/TUE...AND WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUE. COLD AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH HOWEVER AND WITH PARTLY TO MSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WE SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM
DAY TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S NE TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE. AS THE
UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES OVER NEW ENGLAND BY WED...THIS WILL DRIVE
COOLER SFC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE STATES BY WED
MORNING. LOWS IN THE 30S WED...WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 40S NE TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. MODELS DIVERGE INTO DAY
7/THU WITH THE HANDLING OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIVING SE FROM
CENTRAL CANADA SO CONFIDENCE BECOMING FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT. THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SW AND
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY WITH A LIGHT NE WIND
BECOMING SE. CIGS THICKEN AND LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH AREAS OF -RA ARRIVING FROM THE W AND OVERSPREADING
THE REGION FROM 00-06Z. THIS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING N ACROSS THE REGION. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY FROM RIC-SBY IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STEADY -RA GIVES WAY TO
SCT SHRA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA.
A SW WIND OF 10-15KT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT
POSSIBLE OVER SE VA/NE NC. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING A DRYING TREND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA PRIMARILY OVER THE ERN SHORE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVER THE VERY COLD WATERS HAS GENLY
KEPT SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT THROUGHOUT DESPITE NORTH WINDS TO 20
KT. NOTE THE OFFSHORE BUOY 44014 WHERE WATER TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S
(AND MIXING MUCH DEEPER) HAVE SEAS OVER 7 FT WITH SIMILAR WINDS. IN ANY
EVENT...HAVE CANCELLED SCA HEADLINES ALL ZONES...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS OVER THE LOWER BAY/SRN COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN LESS
THAN IDEAL INTO THE EVENING WITH 3-4 FT SEAS...2 FT IN THE LOWER
BAY AND N/NE WINDS AROUND 15 KT. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO E/NE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NE CONUS TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH MOVES
OFFSHORE FRIDAY ALLOWING THE WIND TO VEER TO SE BY AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS AOB 10KT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE WIND BECOMING SSW LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE NJ COAST. HOWEVER...THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
REMAIN STABLE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MILD AIRMASS OVER COLD
WATER. GIVEN THIS...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AOB 15KT
OVER THE OPEN WATER (AND WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER OVER LAND AREAS IN
SE VA/NE NC WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AFTN WHILE
GUSTS OVER THE WATER WILL GENLY BE LESS THAN 20 KT). A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ONCE
AGAIN...CAA IS RATHER WEAK AND ANY SCA POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW- END AT
BEST. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER NNW SURGE IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH AGAIN THE CAA SURGE INTO THE MID ATLC
IS FAIRLY WEAK...HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL RESIDE
OVER THE NRN WATERS. HIGHS PRESSURE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY MON
WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS ONCE AGAIN. FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE S/SW
MON NIGHT/TUE AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/SAM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB




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