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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
550 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY VERY ISOLD SHRAS LINGER INVOF CST ATTM. SFC WARM FRONT N OF
THE FA...W/ MOST READINGS TO START THE DAY IN THE M/U60S. A 
BREEZY/WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TDA. BEGINNING
TO CLR OVR INLAND AREAS...AND XPC THAT TO LEAD TO A VRB CLDS/PSNY
DAY. HANGING ONTO TO SLGT CHC/LO CHC POPS ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC
THROUGH THIS AFTN AS MOISTURE RIBBON LINGERS UNDER SWLY FLO ALOFT.
SSW SFC WNDS TO GUST TO 30-35 MPH. HI TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE
70S (MAYBE 80F SRN/SE VA- INTERIOR NE NC?)...SEE RECORD HI TEMPS
IN CLIMATE SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE W THIS EVE...CROSSES THE FA OVRNGT. 
WK SFC HI PRES FOLLOWS THAT CDFNT FOR TUE. WILL HAVE CLDS AND LO
POPS NR THE CST IN NE NC (TNGT). THE FNT STALLS OFFSHORE...AND 
LO PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE CONUS CST LATER TUE. HIGHS
TUE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW...TO LOW 60S SE...AFTER
MORNING LOWS FROM THE M40S NW...TO L/M50S E.

00Z/24Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT 
TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW
THEN TRACKS NNE ALONG THE COAST WED BRINGING RA TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON A BUSY TRAVEL DAY. THE 00Z/24 NAM HAS NOW
JOINED THE OTHER MDLS...THOUGH ITS SFC LO TRACK IS E OF THE
GFS/ECMWF. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST RA MIXING W/ AND/OR CHANGING
TO WET SN WED AFTN ACRS INLAND AREAS (W OF I 95) - BEFORE PCPN
ENDS WED NGT. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT FCST SN ACCUMS RMNS
LOW AT THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FULLY BY DYNAMICAL COOLING AS ANY CAA IS MINIMAL. GIVEN
TRACK OF SFC LO/H85 LO AND CLIMO...PSBL LGT SN ACCUMS IN ORDER OF
UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES FAVORS NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES...THOUGH A
COATING OF SN TO PORTIONS OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR NOT RULED OUT (WED
EVE). TWO OTHER CONCERNS...MDT/HVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WNDS (ESP E
OF I 95).

CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S
INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER SE PORTIONS...AND THESE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PD.
STRONG LO PRES WILL BE JUST OFF THE DE CST AT 00Z THU...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NNE AND JUST OFF THE MAINE CST
BY 12Z THU. PCPN WILL BE TAPERING OFF AND END FM SW TO NE WED EVE
INTO EARLY THU MORNG (AS EITHER SNOW SNOWERS OR A MIX OF RA/SN).

A MAINLY DRY FRONT SWINGS ACRS THE AREA THU AFTN INTO THU NGT. HI
PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE REGION FRI INTO SAT...THEN SLIDES
OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU...IN THE 40S FRI...IN THE MID 40S TO
LWR 50S SAT...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SUN. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S THU MORNG...IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
FRI AND SAT MORNGS...AND IN THE 30S SUN MORNG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THIS IS PUSHING
ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATL REGION WHICH WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THRU THE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP THE COAST AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND START TO
INCREASE IN SPEED. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT AND VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. 
 
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE COAST SPREADING RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS 
WINDS OVR CSTL WTRS CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 35 KT (GALE WARNING) WHILE 
OVR THE BAY THEY ARE MORE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE (SCA). THE GALE WILL 
END LATE THIS MORNG...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A SCA THRU TNGT WITH 
SEAS AOA 5 FT. THE SCA OVR THE BAY ENDS LATE THIS AFTN AS STRONG SLY 
FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. THE FRNT CROSSES 
THE WTRS LATE TNGT INTO TUE MORNG...WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDS THEN 
INTO TUE AFTN WITH WEAK HI PRES OVR THE AREA. STRONG NE TO NW FLOW 
IS THEN EXPECTED TUE NGT THRU WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NEWRD JUST 
OFF THE E CST. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SCA CONDS EVERYWHERE 
AND PSBL GALES OVR THE CSTL WTRS WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED TODAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY (11/24).

RIC 76 1979
ORF 78 1983
SBY 78 1931
ECG 77 1983

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ALB/TMG/JEF
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...AKQ









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