Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Wakefield, VA banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230813
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. EXPECT QUICK
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE NW, AND WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER TODAY.

MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NW TODAY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE, WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND 25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKY EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PLENTY OF SUN, DRYING FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL ADD UP TO A POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY,.
HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA,
MAINLY FROM RIC NORTH, WITH AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
OUTLOOKED OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

FOR TEMPS, LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING
INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID
20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, EXPECT MAXIMA
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CHILLY EARLY MORNING LOWS
THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY 
FREEZE ISSUES AND PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN SOME PATCHY
FROST IN SHELTERED LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AGAIN ONCE AGAIN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO
THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON FRI. GFS REMAINS FASTER
WITH BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF A BIT SHARPER
WITH THE UPPER WAVE...AND HENCE A BIT SLOWER. PUSHED BACK ONSET OF
POP JUST SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THESE STILL DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THIS, EXPECT A SCENARIO
NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER YESTERDAY (TUESDAY); RATHER MEAGER
INSTABILITY WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES THAT RESULT
IN SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS ALL ZONES FOR SCT SHRAS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
PUSHING THROUGH AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMER SSW
FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 8O.

CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS QUICKLY ENDING
WEST TO EAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG AREA 
COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY 
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A 
COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS 
IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH 
OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE 
CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES 
AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE 
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD 
FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL 
BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY 
WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE 
MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE). 
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL 
PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN 
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT 
INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS 
CLOSER. 

HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN 
THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 
40S-LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SRN NJ COAST
INTO THE NC PIEDMONT REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS QUICKLY TURN
TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY DUE TO A DECENT SURGE
OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE
ABOUT 34015G25KT DURING THIS INITIAL PUSH OF COLDER AIR. AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
WNW-NW WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE THU
MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU
EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT...
CAUSING NW WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR
LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SFC COLD FRONT IS JUST STARTING TO TRACK ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
NW TO SE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
COAST BY SUNRISE. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SCA WINDS WILL
OCCUR DUE TO A DECENT SURGE OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. AS
A RESULT...NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 
30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF TODAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. THE NW WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT SEAS FROM BUILDING ANY HIGHER THAN 5-6 FT...WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES ON THE BAY (LOCALLY UP TO 5 FT SRN BAY AROUND SUNRISE WITH
THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR) AND 2-3 FT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVERS. A SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...COLD AIR SURGE IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP NW WINDS ON THE BAY/OCEAN TO STAY
AROUND 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NRN COASTAL
WATERS. SCA FLAGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR AREA WATERS. PLEASE
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD OR MWWAKQ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS. NW WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS BY THU AFTN (AOB 15 KT CHES BAY/AOB 25 KT AND SEAS
BELOW 5 FT)...HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT
BREEZY DURING THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING BY EARLY THU
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THU NIGHT AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THIS WILL CAUSE NW WINDS
TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
WATERS FRI EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT/2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY...AND
IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING FORECAST
OFFICES, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS 
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA (MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF RIC METRO AREA, AS WELL AS THE LOWER MD EASTER
SHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST THIS AFTN (20-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB-
LFI...AND THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE WARNING AREA. FARTHER
SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
OVER THESE AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT DRYING FUELS.

DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS
OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS
MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL
THEREFORE MENTION CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE
HWO/FWF.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING 
     FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100.
     INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING 
     FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
     635>637.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ








National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy