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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240616
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
THEN DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL VA TO NE MD.
THIS CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH
MORE REGIONALLY EXTENDS FROM NE PA BACK THROUGH WV. THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CLIP FAR NRN AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AND MOVING TO THE E
LATE. A BAND OF 40-50% POPS EXTENDS ACROSS FAR NRN AREAS...AND
TAPERS DOWN TO 20% FROM THE RIC METRO TO THE VA ERN SHORE.
OTHERWISE...A WARM HUMID NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO DROP SE ACROSS THE FA THU MORNING BEFORE 
SLOWING AS IT APPRCHS THE NC/NC BORDER DRNG THE AFTRN. MEANWHILE... 
MODELS DEPICT WEAK S/W MOVG NE ALONG THE BNDRY DRNG THE AFTRN AND 
EVENING. BEST FORCING COUPLED WITH A 60-70KT RRQ OF UPR JET APPEARS 
TO ENHANCE PCPN CHC ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA. APPEARS THAT PORTIONS OF 
THE FA THAT NEED RAIN THE MOST (INVOF RIC METRO AREA) MAY LUCK OUT 
WITH THE HIGHER QPF'S ONCE AGAIN. SVR THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL DUE TO 
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THE FROPA. GIVEN PW'S AOA 
1.5 INCHES...SOME HVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WNDS PSBL IN ANY TSTM 
ACROSS THE SOUTH. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF 
FA...CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. TMPS TRICKY. HIGHS 80-85 NORTH... 
85-90 SOUTH.

BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS SERN VA/NRN NC THURSDAY NIGHT 
INTO FRI MORNING WITH LINGERING TROF ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI AFTRN.
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE EVE...WITH CHC POPS AFTER 
MIDNITE. DRYING FROM THE NORTH ENDS PCPN THERE. STILL MUGGY THU 
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. DRY FRI EXCEPT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP
IN ACROSS NC CNTYS DRNG THE AFTRN. HIGHS IN THE L-M80S. 

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND 
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE SAT AFTRN. GFS WETTER 
FARTHER NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR NOW GIVEN 
THE UNCERTAINTY. LOWS FRI NIGHT 65-70. HIGHS SAT 85-90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF 
DIGGING OVR THE ERN CONUS AND SFC HI PRES PUSHING OFFSHORE. A 
COMPLEX AREA OF SFC LO PRES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES 
REGION...WITH A PREFRNTAL LEE TROF LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS 
OVR THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE 
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 90S. THE 
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO WILL PUSH E AND DRAG A COLD FRNT INTO THE MID 
ATLANTIC REGION MON/MON NGT. INCLUDED A 40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS 
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS MON IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. ASIDE 
FM A LO CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CST...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR 
TUE AND WED...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE MD/VA
LOWER EASTERN SHORE IN THE VICINITY OF A THERMAL TROUGH THROUGH AT
LEAST 24/1000Z. AFTER WHICH...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT NEAR THE WV/VA BORDER WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FROM KSBY TO KLKU WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AS THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN MOVES EWD THIS MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH BEST CHANCES EXPECTED TO
OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF KRIC. STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
SEVERE...HOWEVER LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACTS TODAY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC
ON FRIDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO 
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MON/TUE. 

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A 
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. 
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE 
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF 
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SFC HI 
PRES LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AND A FAIRLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVR THE 
MID ATLANTIC. AHEAD OF A PREFRNTAL TROF OVR THE PIEDMONT THIS 
AFTN/EVENG...SLY WINDS OVR THE BAY WILL RISE TO 10-15 KT...JUST BLO 
SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL BLD TO 3-4 FT FOR NRN CSTL WTRS. A COLD 
FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS ON THU...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW...AND 
STAYING SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRNT DUE TO VERY WEAK CAA. BENIGN MARINE 
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE 
REGION. WINDS WILL STAY AOB 10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND 
2-3 FT OVR CSTL WTRS. NEXT COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON/MON 
NGT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE BUT REMAINS UNSTABLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...MAS
EQUIPMENT...AKQ








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