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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 302013
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
413 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE, 
EXTENDING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE 
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FM THE WNW. ALOFT, 2 MAIN PLAYERS 
ARE A SHORTWAVE CUTTING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE 
OZARKS WITH A SECOND, STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE 
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS AFTN.

FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. FORECAST LOW TEMPS EARLY FRI MORNING INTO
THE M/U30S INLAND TO ~ 50F ALONG SE COASTAL AREAS...UNDER A CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

FRIDAY BEGINS MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS LATE 
AFTN/FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS WEAKER
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE OZARKS CARVES OUT AN EAST COAST
TROUGH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, STRONGER NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND STRONG SFC
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTN AND EVENING.

ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT
WL NEED TO BE OVERCOME...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON POP UNTIL AFTER DARK
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE, NOTHING MORE THAN
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTN/EVENING WITH HIGHS IN
THE U50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTHEAST INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST. DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST TRICK OR TREATERS TOMORROW, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW SPRINKLES POTENTIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT AND OVER THE PIEDMONT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SYNOPTIC REVIEW: STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTH FROM THE TN VALLEY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON SATURDAY. GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT DEPICTING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS
MIDDAY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN-UP SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST SAT AFTN/EVENING, BEFORE QUICKLY EJECTING
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOL 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECAST DETAILS/CONCERNS: 12Z/THU SUITE OF MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY OVERALL ON SATURDAY, WITH BEST SURGE OF
CAA LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT NGT. GIVEN FCST OF HOW FAR S UPR
LVL SYSTEM TRACKS, MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE OVER FOR
ERN/SERN CSTL LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY) FM MIDDAY SAT INTO EARLY SAT
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD OF STRONG NNE WNDS (35-45 MPH)
EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL ZONES W/AREAS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG
THE ATLC BEACHES (SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW). WILL
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN HWO. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
OVER AT LEAST SOME OF OUR COASTAL ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A 6-10
HOUR PERIOD IF CURRENT FORECAST RATIONALE PANS OUT. 

PCPN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE 
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE...AND SKY CLEARS OUT QUICKLY INTO SUNDAY 
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SINKS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO DATE AND A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE IS EXPECTED TO FOR MOST LOCATIONS JUST INLAND MONDAY
MORNING..

FOR TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, INCREASING RAIN CHCS WILL KEEP 
HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST ON SATURDAY, WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY NOT 
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S WELL INLAND. WELL MIXED ATM/BREEZY 
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT 
STILL CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S ALONG THE 
COAST. DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY, ONGOING CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS 
SUNDAY IN THE 50S...OR ROUGHLY -1 TO -1.5 STD DEV FROM CLIMO.
THE SFC HIGH LOCATES ALONG THE SE COAST ON MONDAY, WITH RESULTANT 
LOW LEVEL SW FLOW ALLOWING FOR A MODEST WARMUP MONDAY...INTO THE 
U50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. BY 
MONDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30-32 FOR MUCH OF THE 
AREA (UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN FAVORED COLD SPOTS)...WITH SLIGHTLY 
HIGHER VALUES (35-40) FOR FAR SE PORTIONS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO 
PRODUCE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS FALL ACROSS 
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD 
RANGE FROM 55-60...WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL TUESDAY MORNING 
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INTERIOR TO LOW 40S FOR SE COASTAL 
LOCATIONS. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S WEDNESDAY 
MORNING WITH THE HIGH WELL OFFSHORE AND THE RESUMPTION OF SSW FLOW. 
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT...AND TRACKS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME MOISTURE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED WITH 
THIS FRONT...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED AT THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA TNGT INTO FRI MORNG...THEN
DISSIPATES OVR THE REGION FRI AFTN. UA/SFC LO PRES WILL THEN
AFFECT THE REGION FRI EVENG INTO SAT NGT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
INTO FRI EVENG...THEN LWR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE DUE TO RAIN FRI NGT
INTO SAT NGT. HI PRES AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUN AND MON.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MID ATLANTIC 
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF 
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NNE FLOW AVERAGING 
10-15KT...WITH 2-3FT SEAS AND 1-2FT WAVES IN THE BAY (2-3FT AT THE 
MOUTH OF THE BAY). THE HIGH WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST WAVE 
OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS QUICKLY TO THE NE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH A STRONGER 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE OUTER BANKS SATURDAY 
EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT 
INTO SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NNW 
WIND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A 
PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCA CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY 
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES BUT 
THE RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK/UPPER JAMES BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON 
AND RUNNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE BAY/SOUND/LOWER 
JAMES...AND MID-MORNING FOR THE OCEAN. THIS IS RATHER EARLY FOR A 
GALE WATCH...BUT THE FLAG HAS BEEN RAISED GIVEN A RATHER HIGH 
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. A RAMP UP SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NRN OCEAN 
ZONES (N OF PARRAMORE) TO ACCOUNT FOR A LONGER NE PUSH...WHICH COULD 
BUILD SEAS TO 5-7FT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. 12Z DATA INDICATES 
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OFF THE OUTER BANKS...SO GIVEN THIS 
THERE IS MUCH LESS OF A CHANCE OF A SHORT DURATION PERIOD OF STORM 
FORCE GUSTS SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT 
WEEK...WITH THE WIND BACKING FROM NW TO SW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST LATE 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1-1.5FT 
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST 
AND LOWER BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THE SURGE 
COINCIDES DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR 
     ANZ630>634-638.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR 
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







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