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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291956
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE REGION
ON LATER MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1023 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM THE DELMARVA INTO CENTRAL NC WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED ACRS THE GULF STREAM OFF THE GA/SC COAST. ALOFT,
AFTN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/SUBJECTIVE MID LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TEXARKANA REGION NE INTO SE
ONTARIO. TO THE EAST, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLIP
NNE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH.

THIN VEIL OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO THE SOUTH...FIRST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VA/INTERIOR NE
NC THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE EASTERN SHORE BY LATE 
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND LLVL MOISTURE, OUR
FORECAST MINIMA ARE A FEW DEGREES MILDER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOK
FOR ANOTHER COMFORTABLE AND QUIET NIGHT WEATHERWISE. FORECAST EARLY
MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WEAKENS IN PLACE ON
SUNDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF PERHAPS A QUICK SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS SUN
AFTN, MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT LOW LEVELS BELOW
H9-85 REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER CAN
EASILY BE INFERRED IN LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS, INCREASING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE AFTN. THUS, DESPITE THE
INCREASING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850MB TEMPERATURES....ACTUAL
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SAT VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S, A FEW 90F READINGS POSSIBLE IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY. THIS REPRESENTS ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW WARMER ENVELOPE OF
MOS GUIDANCE (MET).

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE AND GET ABSORBED
INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE ONLY WEAK 
OVERRUNNING/MINIMAL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS,
MID/UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR
TSTMS. NUDGED LINE OF 20-30% POP SLIGHTLY NORTH, TO INCLUDE SOUTH
CENTRAL VA MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 460 INTO NE NC, MAINLY FOR
AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE FOR ALL BUT MD EASTERN SHORE
INTO MON AFTN...AND WILL HAVE AT LEAST 20% POPS MON NIGHT OVER NE
NC ZONES. A BIT MORE HUMID MON WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90F.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING...AS SOUTHEAST RIDGE BUILDS BACK WEST
ACROSS THE SE COAST. WHILE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL NC COUNTIES, EXPECT A
MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND A DRY DAY FOR MOST ON TUESDAY.
DESPITE MOIST SW FLOW, WHAT LITTLE WEAK FORCING THAT EXISTS FOR
ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HV
THEREFORE CAPPED POPS IN SILENT (< 14%) RANGE FOR NOW. AFTER LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY 
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK 
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE 
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE 
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS 
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS 
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE 
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW 
15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH 
CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO 
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD 
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN 
INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM 
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE 
IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE 
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN 
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CU WITH DECKS 4-6K FT
AGL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. WINDS GENERALLY S TO SE AOB 10
KT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH WINDS HAVING A MORE
SWLY DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG EACH MORNING NEAR
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC DEW POINTS RISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. 
THE RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE AOB 10 KT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 
FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AND 3-4 FT SOUTH OF 
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS 
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING E-SE NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE BAY 
AND S-NE SOUTH (AOB 10 KT). SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED 
TODAY...2-3 FT NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW. LIGHT 
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE 
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST MID 
WEEK. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO WEST MON-WEDS AOB 10-15 KT. SEAS 
AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/DAP
AVIATION...SAM/WRS
MARINE...DAP



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