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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210039
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
839 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LO PRES RMNS OFF THE SE CONUS CST THIS AFTN...WHILE SFC HI PRES
HAS SETTLED OVR ERN NEW ENG. COMBINATION OF THAT LO AND SFC HI
PRES TO THE NNE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LO LVL FLO FM THE NE
THROUGH TNGT. WORST OF THE WX CONTS TO BE CONFINED TO CSTL NE
NC...WHERE CLDS...GUSTY NE WNDS (TO 30-40 KT) AND INTERMITTENT 
LGT RAIN (50-70% POPS...AT LEAST THIS EVE) CONTG. ALSO...CARRYING
HI SURF ADVISORY FM BEACHES ON NRN NC OUTER BANKS AS SURF WAVES
AVG CLOSE TO 8 FT (MINOR BCH EROSION PSBL AS WELL). KEEPING BKN CLDS
ACRS SE VA/INTERIOR NE NC...W/ POPS 15-40%. XCPG SOME PUSH OF THE
CLDNS/PCPN TO THE N EARLY TNGT...BEFORE BEGINNING TO RETREAT BACK
SSE. ELSW...MNNLY CLR...BREEZY INLAND/WINDY AT THE CST. LO TEMPS
FM THE U30S INLAND TO M/U40S AT THE CST IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LVL RDG BUILDS OVR THE REGION LATER TNGT THRU MON WITH LO PRES
CONTINUING TO (SLOLY) MOVE OUT TO SEA. IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED
OVR CSTL NE NC (ALBEIT VERY SLOLY)...W/ CLR-P/CLDY WX ELSW.
CDFNT TRACKING INTO THE OH VLY MON EVE...WILL PUSH E AND OVR THE
MTNS TUE MRNG. THAT FRONT WILL BRING INCRSG CLDS FM W-E TUE...ALONG
WITH THE NEXT CHC FOR RA. MOST OF IF NOT ALL RA MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTN W...AND TWD LT AFTN/EVE E ON TUE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLGT
CHC OF A TSTM...THOUGH DYNAMICS WEAKENING WITH TIME...AS THE FNT
ENTERS THE REGION.

HI TEMPS MON FM 55 TO 60F RIGHT ALG THE CST...TO RANGING THROUGH
THE 60S TO NR 70F INLAND. LO TEMPS MON NGT RANGING FM THE M40S TO
ARND 50F. HI TEMPS ON TUE RANGING FM THE M/U70S INLAND...TO
THE U60S TO L70S AT THE CST.

THE CDFNT PUSHES OUT TO SEA TUE NGT...W/ SGFNT DRYING AND A PD OF
COOLING THEREAFTER (FM AFT MDNGT TUE NGT THROUGH WED). MAINTAINING
30-40% POPS ERN PORTION OF THE FA TUE EVE...15-25% ELSW...THEN
CLEARING AFT MDNGT AS WINDS BECOME NW. NR SEASONABLE/CLR-PCLDY WX
XPCD WED W/ GUSTY NW WNDS...MNLY ERN PORTION.

LO TEMPS TUE NGT FM THE M40S NW TO L50S SE. HI TEMPS WED FM THE
M60S TO ARND 70F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL RESULT IN NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFF THE NE COAST WEDS NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EWD OVER THE CNTRL-ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER COOL DAY THURS (HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S) AS
FLOW REMAINS NW-W. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THURS-
LATE THURS...LOCATING OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT. THIS WILL VEER THE
FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THURS-THURS NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIFTING A WARM
FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW. TRAILING COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WLY FLOW OVER THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
DEWPOINTS ONLY PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 50S FRI. BEST
DYNAMICS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING SPEEDS ALOFT
AND SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ENOUGH TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT ATTM. WITH THE LOCAL
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FRI...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER
70S (NEAR 80 INLAND). WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION FRI AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FRI
NIGHT-SAT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLOW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NE
STATES THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM DAY SAT
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S IN WLY FLOW. COOLER SUNDAY AS COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS SEWD OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW 
PRESSURE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE 
00Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SE PORTIONS 
OVERNIGHT AND AT ORF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. USED NAM BUFR AND GFS 
MOS FOR SKY CONDITIONS AS NAM MOS WAS OUT TO LUNCH. HAVE MVFR AT ECG 
AND ORF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF IT 
AT PHF MONDAY MORNING AS WELL. ECG HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IFR 
EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. 

OUTLOOK...SOME PATCHY FOG IS PSBL TUESDAY MORNING BUT CURRENT 
INDICATIONS DO NOT POINT TO WIDESPREAD IFR. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE RESIDES
OFF THE SE COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SRN WATERS BTWN LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE SRN COASTAL WATERS...CURRITUCK
SOUND AND LOWER BAY. MHX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 40-50 KT WINDS A
THOUSAND FOOT OFF THE SFC WITH SEVERAL ELEVATED SITES RECORDING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35-40 KT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NEWD. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE N AND
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...AVERAGING 20-30 KT. GRADIENT WILL ALSO RELAX
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...RANGING FROM 7-10
FT (HIGHEST IN THE SRN WATERS) TONIGHT. SFC LOW WILL PUSH FARTHER
OUT TO SEA MON AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS RIDGED OVER THE WATERS.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE BAY AND ERN VA RIVERS BY MID-
LATE MON MORNING. WILL HOLD ONTO SCA HEADLINES FOR THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY FOR WAVES 4+ FT THRU MON AS WELL AS THE SOUND FOR WINDS
20-25 KT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-8 FT MON. FLOW BECOMES SLY MON
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SEAS
WILL FINALLY FALL BELOW 5 FT LATE MON NIGHT-EARLY TUES MORNING.
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUES AFTERNOON WITH SCA
CONDITIONS AGAIN LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ633-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM






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