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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281505
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. SUNSHINE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL TODAY WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 40-45. NORMAL
HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DUE TO
FLATTENING UPR FLOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH LOW
LEVEL-FLOW BECOMING MORE S-SW...MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT FROM THE UPR 40S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 50S 
SOUTH. WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S
TO AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. SKIES TURN OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY ON SAT...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING COLD 
FRONTS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. 
RIDGING ALONG THE LATITUDE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL 
KEEP HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF 
ARCTIC AIR. 

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE 
LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THE 
FRONT MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A CLEARING SKY 
FROM THE WEST BUT SLGT CHC POPS CONTINUING TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH 
EARLY THURSDAY. 

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG 
TERM. HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S NE TO MID 60S SW MONDAY COOL TO THE MID 
40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE FORECAST 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING LOWER TO THE 
UPR 30S TO MID 40S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES WILL BLD OVR THE AREA DURING TODAY...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT THE TAF SITES. EXPECT JUST HI CLOUDS AND
MAYBE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENG THRU SAT...AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT ALOFT LIFTS INTO AND ACRS THE AREA. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO
NEAR 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING...AS CAA CONTINUES ACRS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT
NGT INTO MON...AS HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR THE RIVERS EXTENDED TIL 1 PM AS NW WINDS CONTINUE GUSTY
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD MIXING FROM COLD AIR TEMPERATURES.
MODELS HAVE WINDS DIMINISHING MOST OF THE BAY BY 18Z BUT EXPECT
WAVES AND OR WINDS TO CONTINUE SCA IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY LONGER
AND EXTENDED SCA THERE UNTIL 21Z/4 PM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HI PRES WILL BLD TWD THE AREA FM THE W TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...THEN SLIDES OUT TO SEA FOR SAT INTO MON. STRONG CAA
EXPECTED THIS MORNG INTO THIS AFTN...WITH NW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO OR ARND 30 KT OVR THE WTRS. SEAS WILL BLD TO 4-6 FT
WITH WAVES 3-4 FT. SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS
MORNG FOR THE RIVERS...UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTN FOR THE CHES BAY AND
CURRITUCK SND...AND THRU THIS AFTN FOR THE CSTL WTRS. CALMER
CONDITIONS TNGT INTO SAT MORNG...AS THE HI BLDS RIGHT OVRHD. SW OR
S WINDS 10 TO 20 KT EXPECTED SAT THRU SUN NGT...WITH WAVES 1 TO 3
FT...AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WTRS
MON AFTN INTO MON NGT. HI PRES THEN BLDS OVER NEW ENGLAND
TUE...RIDGING OVER CNTRL VA. RESULTANT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR SCA CONDITIONS MON NGT-TUE AS SEAS BLD TO 4-6 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     ANZ630>633-635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...SAM/LSA
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG/LSA






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