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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1120 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2009

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK #6...

THIS IS THE SIXTH IN A SERIES OF OUTLOOKS THAT ESTIMATES THE 
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE 
WAKEFIELD'S HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. THIS AREA 
INCLUDES CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA 
AND EASTERN SHORE MARYLAND...INCLUDING THE JAMES...APPOMATTOX AND 
CHOWAN RIVER BASINS. THIS ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON HYDROMETEROLOGICAL 
FACTORS...NAMELY RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND 
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE, STREAMFLOW,FUTURE WEATHER 
CONDITIONS AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OR 
EXTENT OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE 
ONE WEEK PERIOD OF MARCH 19-APRIL 2, 2009.

THE FOLLOWING IS A BRIEF SUMMARY OF CURRENT CONDITIONS:

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

CURRENT RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...NEAR NORMAL.

DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN DISTRIBUTION THAT HAS REPLENISHED RIVER LEVELS
CURRENT AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA IS NEAR NORMAL FOR 
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN LOOKING AT INDIVIDUAL BASINS...THE JAMES BASIN 
AND OTHER SMALLER TRIBUTARIES TO THE NORTH ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW 
NORMAL....WHEREAS IN THE SOUTHERN BASINS...NAMELY THE CHOWAN BASIN 
AND THE LOWER ROANOKE BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA...FLOOD POTENTIAL IS 
CURRENTLY ABOVE NORMAL. 

RECENT PRECIPITATION...BELOW NORMAL.

OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS PRECIPITATION IN THE JAMES AND APPOMATTOX 
RIVER BASIN HAS AVERAGED NEAR 1 INCH BELOW NORMAL...IN THE CHOWAN 
RIVER BASIN...1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL IN THE CHOWAN RIVER 
BASIN...2.0 INCHES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN SHORE MARYLAND...1 
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE VIRGINIA DELMARVA...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES 
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. 

SNOW CONDITIONS - NEAR AVERAGE.

SNOW IS NOT GENERALLY HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT.

RIVER ICE - AVERAGE

NO RIVER ICE REMAINS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS - BELOW NORMAL.

STREAMFLOW ACROSS BASINS IN THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA ARE 
AVERAGING NEAR NORMAL. THE CHOWAN RIVER BASIN CURRENTLY HAS FLOWS 
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT 4-DAY RAINFALL RUNOFF 
WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEM.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL.

THE LATEST U.S DROUGHT MONITOR...WHICH TAKES SOIL MOISTURE AND 
RECENT PRECIPITATION INTO ACCOUNT ALONG WITH OTHER PARAMETERS 
...INDICATES THAT THE REGION IS CONSIDERED ABNORMALLY DRY. DESPITE 
THE RECENT RAINS AND VERY MOIST UPPER SURFACE SOILS...SUBSURFACE 
MOISTURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT DEFICIENT. WITH THE LATEST SEASONAL 
DROUGHT OUTLOOK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 
TWO MONTHS. 

GROUND WATER - VARIABLE.

IN GENERAL...GROUND WATER MONITORING WELLS HAVE SHOWN IMPROVEMENTS 
OVERALL BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.   

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - AVERAGE.

THE JOHN H. KERR RESERVOIR IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE GUIDE CURVE 
OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE MONTHS.

WITH RESPECT TO FUTURE WEATHER...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS APPEAR RATHER DRY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH 
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  AT THE PRESENT TIME THERE ARE NO STRONG 
INDICATIONS OF ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 
WEEK.

THE LATEST NWS EXTENDED-RANGE (6-10 DAY) WEATHER FORECAST CALLS FOR 
BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

THE WILL BE THE LAST SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK STATEMENT FOR 2009 UNLESS 
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

KEITH LYNCH
SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WAKEFIELD VIRGINIA