Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Wakefield, VA banner image
 
 

Hydrologic Outlook
Latest Versions  [Current][-1]



000
FGUS71 KAKQ 211453
ESFAKQ
MDC019-039-045-047-NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-131-139-143-VAC001-
007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-081-085-087-093-095-
097-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-145-147-149-159-
175-181-183-193-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-700-710-730-735-740-
760-800-810-830-041500-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1053 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

...SIXTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR 2014...

...RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL NEAR NORMAL THROUGH APRIL 4TH...

EACH WINTER AND EARLY SPRING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN WAKEFIELD ISSUES A SERIES OF FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS.
THESE OUTLOOKS ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS
THE WAKEFIELD FORECAST OFFICE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). THE
HSA INCLUDES CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...LOWER MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE
OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS
INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL
MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...STREAM FLOWS...
RIVER ICE...AND EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

IN THIS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE
PRIMARY FACTOR THAT LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW.
 
THE FOLLOWING IS A BRIEF SUMMARY OF CURRENT CONDITIONS:

CURRENT FLOODING - NO RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN FLOOD AS OF 8 AM
FRIDAY MARCH 21ST.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - SINCE THE LAST OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED 14 DAYS
AGO...RAINFALL TOTALS WERE GENERALLY 0.50 - 3.50 INCHES. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA WHERE RAINFALL WAS NEARLY 2.0 - 3.50 INCHES. THESE TOTALS
RANGED FROM NEAR NORMAL UP TO 1.50 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE RICHMOND VICINITY...THE
MIDDLE PENINSULA...THE NORTH CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND THE LOWER
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE ONLY SAW BETWEEN 0.50 AND 2 INCHES OF
RAIN...WHICH RANGED UP TO 1 INCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TWO WEEK PERIOD.

OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...FROM FEBRUARY 20TH THROUGH MARCH 21ST...RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM 1.50 TO 4.50 INCHES. SIMILAR TO THE 14 DAY
PRECIPITATION...THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WITH AMOUNTS OF 2.5 TO 4.5 INCHES...WHICH RANGED FROM
0.50 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL TO 1 INCH BELOW NORMAL. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 1.50 - 3.00
INCHES...WHICH WAS WAS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE 30 DAY PERIOD.

SINCE JANUARY 1ST...THE RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED FROM 5 TO 11
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FALLING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR AND AGAIN AROUND THE NORFOLK AREA IN THE
VIRGINIA TIDEWATER. THE AMOUNTS WE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SAW AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES...THAT WERE UP TO 4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...RAINFALL HAS REMAINED JUST PLENTIFUL
ENOUGH SO THAT NO PORTION OF THE HSA IS DESIGNATED AS BEING
ABNORMALLY DRY OR IN DROUGHT. FOR FURTHER DROUGHT INFORMATION
PLEASE VISIT:

HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

SNOW CONDITIONS - AVERAGE.

CURRENTLY...THERE IS NO HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW THAT FELL ON THE 17TH OF MARCH
HAS MELTED.

RIVER ICE - AVERAGE.

CURRENTLY...THERE IS NO ICING ON AREA RIVERS.

STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL.

THE 14 DAY AVERAGE FLOWS ACROSS THE WAKEFIELD HSA GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO SHOW NEAR NORMAL FLOW...HOWEVER A SCATTERING OF GAGES
ARE NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW 14 AVERAGE STREAMFLOW THAT IS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AND NO GAGES ARE SHOWING AVERAGE FLOWS ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON THAT NO GAGES ARE SHOWING ABOVE
NORMAL STREAM FLOWS IN THE 14 DAY AVERAGE. BUT GIVEN THE SLOWING
OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 TO 60 DAYS...THE
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN STREAM FLOW IS TO BE EXPECTED.

LOOKING AT THE REAL TIME STREAM FLOWS TODAY...MARCH 21ST...GIVES
A SIMILAR VIEW AS MOST LOCATIONS ARE IN THE NORMAL RANGE...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS HAVING BELOW NORMAL FLOW AS WELL AS A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE YORK BASIN...THANKS TO SNOW MELT...SHOWING ABOVE
NORMAL FLOW.

SOME OBSERVED DAILY STREAM FLOWS WITH THE MEDIAN FLOW AS OF EARLY
MORNING ON THE 21ST OF MARCH:

LOCATION OBSERVED MEDIAN/PERCENTAGE
                                                        OF MEDIAN

RIVANNA RIVER/PALMYRA VA  1300CFS      785CFS/165.6 
JAMES RIVER/CARTERSVILLE VA  9050CFS     9440CFS/ 95.9 
JAMES RIVER/RICHMOND VA 10100CFS     9450CFS/106.9 
APPOMATTOX RIVER/FARMVILLE VA   387CFS     309CFS/125.2 
APPOMATTOX RIVER/MATTOAX VA   929CFS      845CFS/109.9
APPOMATTOX RIVER/MATOACA VA  1510CFS            1690CFS/ 89.3 
NOTTOWAY RIVER/RAWLINGS VA   307CFS      365CFS/ 84.1 
NOTTOWAY RIVER/STONY CREEK VA   544CFS      773CFS/ 70.4 
NOTTOWAY RIVER/SEBRELL VA  1580CFS     2300CFS/ 68.7 
MEHERRIN RIVER/EMPORIA VA   659CFS      878CFS/ 75.1
BLACKWATER RIVER/FRANKLIN VA   845CFS     1000CFS/ 84.5 
MATTAPONI RIVER/BOWLING GREEN VA  412CFS      340CFS/121.2 
MATTAPONI RIVER/BEULAHVILLE VA   735CFS      927CFS/ 79.3 
POCOMOKE RIVER/ WILLARDS MD   131CFS      106CFS/123.6 
POTECASI CREEK/UNION NC   308CFS      256CFS/120.3

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS

SOIL MOISTURE INDICATORS INCLUDING THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY
INDEX...WHICH IS USED TO INFER DEEP SOIL MOISTURE...SHOWS...AS OF
MARCH 15TH...THE ENTIRE REGION IS NOW DENOTED AS NEAR NORMAL.
PREVIOUSLY...MUCH OF THE AREA HAD BEEN DENOTED AS UNUSUALLY MOIST.
THIS CHANGE IN SOIL MOISTURE IS INDICATIVE OF THE LESSENING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THE LAST 30 DAYS.

THE CPC SOIL MOISTURE MONITOR...WHICH LOOKS MORE AT THE TOPSOIL
MOISTURE...SHOWS A WEAKENING POSITIVE ANOMALY OVER THE CENTRAL
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...FROM NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...TOP SOIL MOISTURE IS IN THE NORMAL
RANGE. A SLIGHT DRY ANOMALY CONTINUES TO GROW IN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...WHICH COINCIDES WITH AN AREA
THAT HAS RECEIVED BELOW NORMAL RAIN OVER THE LAST 30 TO 60 DAYS.

GROUND WATER - NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GROUND WATER WELLS IN THE CLIMATE RESPONSE NETWORK ARE ALL
INDICATING NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL GROUND WATER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. 

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL POOL LEVELS.

RESERVOIRS LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE NEAR OR ABOVE GUIDE CURVE
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WATER STORAGE IS IN THE NORMAL
RANGE.

WITH RESPECT TO FUTURE WEATHER...
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY MARCH 27TH...AFTER A WARM
START TO THE PERIOD ON THE 21ST AND 22ND...THE PATTERN TURNS MORE
WINTER LIKE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE BEST
ON SUNDAY THE 23RD...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG A STALL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE COME ON
TUESDAY...MARCH 25TH...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE 26TH...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD BE IN PLACE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PIEDMONT COUNTIES. OVERALL THE EXPECTATION IS FOR 0.75 TO 1.50
INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION FOR THE 7 DAY PERIOD.

IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD...FROM MARCH 28TH - APRIL 3RD...THE OUTLOOK
IS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

LASTLY...THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR APRIL THROUGH JUNE SHOWS...
THAT FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION...THE AREA IS IN THE
EQUAL CHANCES CATEGORY...WHICH MEANS THE CHANCES ARE THE SAME FOR
BELOW NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THROUGH APRIL 4 2014...

THE RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WAKEFIELD HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA IS NEAR NORMAL FOR ALL BASINS...INCLUDING THE JAMES AND
APPOMATTOX AND OTHER TRIBUTARIES ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE
CHOWAN BASIN IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
THE LOWER ROANOKE BASIN IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH APRIL 4TH.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE OF THE WINTER/SPRING
FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE SEASON...UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL
UPDATE. REGULARLY SCHEDULED OUTLOOKS WILL RESUME IN JANUARY OF 2015.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER OR HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...VISIT OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD.


$$







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy