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FGUS71 KAKQ 072136
ESFAKQ
MDC019-039-045-047-NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-131-139-143-VAC001-
007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-081-085-087-093-095-
097-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-145-147-149-159-
175-181-183-193-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-700-710-730-735-740-
760-800-810-830-212145-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
436 PM EST THU MAR 7 2013

...FIFTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR 2013...

...RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MARCH 21ST...

EACH WINTER AND EARLY SPRING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN WAKEFIELD ISSUES A SERIES OF FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS.
THESE OUTLOOKS ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS
THE WAKEFIELD FORECAST OFFICE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). THE
HSA INCLUDES CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...LOWER MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE
OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS
INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL
MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...STREAM FLOWS...
RIVER ICE...AND EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

IN THIS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE
PRIMARY FACTOR THAT LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW.
 
THE FOLLOWING IS A BRIEF SUMMARY OF CURRENT CONDITIONS:

CURRENT FLOODING - NO RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN FLOOD AS OF 4 PM
THURSDAY MARCH 7TH.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - OVER THE LAST 14 DAYS...FROM FEBRUARY 21ST
THROUGH MARCH 7TH...RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM 1.25 INCHES
TO NEARLY 4 INCHES OF RAIN. MOST OF THE RAIN FELL IN TWO WEATHER
EVENTS...ONE ON THE 25TH-26TH OF FEBRUARY AND THE SECOND ON MARCH
5TH AND 6TH. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHERE RAIN
TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD WERE 3 TO 4 INCHES. THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF
VA SAW THE LEAST RAIN BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.75 INCHES. OVERALL THESE
RAIN AMOUNTS WERE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE TWO WEEK PERIOD...THE
AMOUNTS FROM RICHMOND...THROUGH THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE LOWER
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE SHOWING SURPLUSES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD. 

LOOKING LONGER TERM BACK TO THE FIRST OF THE YEAR...JANUARY
1...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE HSA HAS SEEN NORMAL RAIN FALL FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES OF RAIN. HOWEVER...AN
AREA THAT STRETCHES FROM LUNENBURG COUNTY THROUGH PETERSBURG AND
THE MIDDLE PENINSULA INTO THE DELMARVA SHOW RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL WITH TWO MONTH TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES.

THE RAINFALL SINCE JANUARY 1ST HAS HELPED ALLEVIATE THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AS OF MARCH 7TH...NO PORTIONS OF
THE WAKEFIELD HSA IS DESIGNATED TO BE EITHER ABNORMALLY DRY OR IN
DROUGHT. FOR FURTHER DROUGHT INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:

HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

SNOW CONDITIONS - AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

SNOW TOTALS FROM THE STORM ON THE 5TH AND 6TH OF MARCH PRODUCED 6
TO 10 IN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT FROM LOUISA
COUNTY INTO CUMBERLAND COUNTY AND EASTWARD THROUGH
GOOCHLAND...POWHATAN AND HANOVER COUNTIES. SOUTH AND EAST THE
AMOUNTS WERE AMOUNTS WERE 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY WEST OF RICHMOND
THROUGH FARMVILLE.  THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION REMAINS SNOW FREE.

RIVER ICE - AVERAGE.

AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO ICE ON AREA WATERS IN THE WAKEFIELD
HSA.

STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS - NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.

THE 14 DAY AVERAGE FLOWS ACROSS THE WAKEFIELD HSA SHOW NEAR NORMAL
FLOWS FOR THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND ALSO THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE CHOWAN BASIN IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE TIME SPAN BETWEEN RAIN EVENTS OVER THE
LAST 14 DAYS...THE AVERAGE FLOWS FOR THE JAMES...YORK...APPOMATTOX
AND MUCH OF THE CHOWAN BASINS SHOW CONDITIONS BEING BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE 14 DAY PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE BLACK WATER RIVER THAT
CONTINUES TO RUN AT NORMAL FLOW LEVELS.

HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE DAILY STREAM FLOWS TODAY...MARCH 7TH...SHOWS
THAT THE RIVER LEVELS HAVE RISEN DRAMATICALLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
RAIN EVENT ON THE 5TH AND 6TH. MANY CURRENT FLOWS ARE NOW SHOWING
ABOVE NORMAL OF HIGH LEVEL FLOWS FOR THE 7TH OF MARCH.

SOME OBSERVED DAILY STREAM FLOWS WITH THE MEDIAN FLOW AS 11:15 AM
ON THE 7TH OF MARCH:

LOCATION OBSERVED MEDIAN/PERCENTAGE
                                                        OF MEDIAN

RIVANNA RIVER/PALMYRA VA        1730CFS   788CFS/219.5 
JAMES RIVER/CARTERSVILLE VA    11700CFS 10100CFS/115.8 
JAMES RIVER/RICHMOND VA         7630CFS  9250CFS/ 82.5 
APPOMATTOX RIVER/FARMVILLE VA 1320CFS   300CFS/440.0
APPOMATTOX RIVER/MATTOAX VA 2510CFS   829CFS/302.8 
APPOMATTOX RIVER/MATOACA VA 2300CFS  1290CFS/178.3
NOTTOWAY RIVER/RAWLINGS VA 1170CFS   339CFS/345.1  
NOTTOWAY RIVER/STONY CREEK VA 1060CFS   665CFS/159.4 
NOTTOWAY RIVER/SEBRELL VA 1520CFS   1810CFS/ 84.0
MEHERRIN RIVER/EMPORIA VA        833CFS    913CFS/ 91.2 
BLACKWATER RIVER/FRANKLIN VA1140CFS   953CFS/119.6 
MATTAPONI RIVER/BOWLING GREEN VA 346CFS   308CFS/112.3 
MATTAPONI RIVER/BEULAHVILLE VA 1070CFS   727CFS/147.2
BEAVER DAM CREEK/SALISBURY MD 414CFS    31CFS/1335.5
POCOMOKE RIVER/ WILLARDS MD 646CFS    91CFS/709.9
POTECASI CREEK/UNION NC  391CFS   331CFS/118.1 

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS

SOIL MOISTURE INDICATORS INCLUDING THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY
INDEX...WHICH IS USED TO INFER DEEP SOIL MOISTURE...SHOWS...AS OF
MARCH 2ND...THAT THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND MOST OF NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA ARE IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR SOIL MOISTURE. BUT FOR AREAS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95 TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE DELMARVA...THEY ARE
DENOTED AS UNUSUALLY MOIST. THE CPC SOIL MOISTURE MONITOR...WHICH
LOOKS MORE AT THE TOPSOIL MOISTURE...HAS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY AS
MOST OF VIRGINIA EAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY IS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
POSITIVE ANOMALIES. MEANWHILE...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE
DELMARVA SHOW NEAR NORMAL TOP SOIL MOISTURE.

GROUND WATER - NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GROUND WATER WELLS IN THE CLIMATE RESPONSE NETWORK ARE ALL
INDICATING NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL GROUND WATER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH EACH RAIN EVENT THE GROUND WATER WELLS ARE
RESPONDING WITH INCREASING WATER LEVELS...WHICH GIVES AN
INDICATION THAT WITH EACH RAIN EVENT...THE GROUNDWATER CONTINUES
TO BE RECHARGED.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL. RESERVOIRS LEVELS AT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE NEAR GUIDE CURVE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WATER STORAGE IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE. 

WITH RESPECT TO FUTURE WEATHER...
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THE 8TH
THROUGH 11TH. A WEAK WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA PROVIDING DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...ALONG
WITH A GRADUALLY WARM UP. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A SLOW
MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS WITH RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THIS FRONT ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN FROM
THE WEST..PROVIDING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY THE 14TH.

IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD...FROM THE 15TH TO 21ST OF MARCH... THE
OUTLOOK IS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION...AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY PUSHING COLD DRY
AIR OUT OF CANADA INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE US.

LASTLY...THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY SHOWS
AN HIGHER CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. FOR PRECIPITATION...MOST OF THE AREA IS IN THE
EQUAL CHANCES CATEGORY...EXCEPT RIGHT IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THROUGH MARCH 21ST 2013...

THE RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WAKEFIELD HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA IS NORMAL FOR ALL BASINS...INCLUDING THE JAMES AND
APPOMATTOX AND OTHER TRIBUTARIES ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA... THE
CHOWAN BASIN IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
THE LOWER ROANOKE BASIN IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH MARCH 21ST.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER OR HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...VISIT OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD.


$$

ESS