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FGUS71 KAKQ 212112
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MDC019-039-045-047-NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-131-139-143-VAC001-
007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-081-085-087-093-095-
097-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-145-147-149-159-
175-181-183-193-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-700-710-730-735-740-
760-800-810-830-072115-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
412 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013


...FOURTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR 2013...

...RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MARCH 7TH...

EACH WINTER AND EARLY SPRING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN WAKEFIELD ISSUES A SERIES OF FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS.
THESE OUTLOOKS ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS
THE WAKEFIELD FORECAST OFFICE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). THE
HSA INCLUDES CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...LOWER MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE
OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS
INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL
MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...STREAM FLOWS...
RIVER ICE...AND EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

IN THIS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE
PRIMARY FACTOR THAT LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW.
 
THE FOLLOWING IS A BRIEF SUMMARY OF CURRENT CONDITIONS:

CURRENT FLOODING - NO RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN FLOOD AS OF 2 PM
THURSDAY FEBRUARY 21ST.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - OVER THE LAST 14 DAYS FROM FEBRUARY 7TH
THROUGH FEBRUARY 21ST...THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE HSA
HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN. THE BULK OF THIS
RAIN FELL ON THE 8TH OF FEBRUARY IN RESPONSE TO THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHEASTERN US. OVERALL
THAT STORM BROUGHT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM MECKLENBURG COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH PETERSBURG
INTO THE MIDDLE PENINSULA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. TO THE WEST
OF THIS LINE...THE PRECIPITATION FOR THAT EVENT WAS MUCH
LESS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TWO WEEK PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS IMPACTED THE REGION WITH
4 TO 5 LIGHT EVENTS PRODUCING NO MORE THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. BUT FOR THE TWO WEEK PERIOD...ALL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL PIEDMONT COUNTIES SAW NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE INCHES
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. THE NORTH CENTRAL PIEDMONT SHOWED A 1 TO 2
INCH DEFICIT.

LOOKING LONGER TERM BACK TO THE FIRST OF THE YEAR...JANUARY
1...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE HSA HAS SEEN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES
AND FOR THE NEAR 2 MONTH TIME PERIOD THE RAIN AMOUNTS ARE NEAR
NORMAL TO A COUPLE INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. ONLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ARE THE RAIN TOTALS...WHICH ARE
BETWEEN 2.5 AND 5 INCHES...RUNNING A COUPLE INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

THE RAINFALL SINCE JANUARY 1ST HAS HELPED ALLEVIATE THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AS OF FEBRUARY 21ST...ONLY A
SMALL PORTION OF THE ROANOKE BASIN REMAINS IN D0 OR ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS.  FOR FURTHER DROUGHT INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:

HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

SNOW CONDITIONS - AVERAGE.

THERE IS NO SNOW CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND IN THE WAKEFIELD HSA.

RIVER ICE - AVERAGE.

AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO ICE ON AREA WATERS IN THE WAKEFIELD
HSA.

STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS - NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.

THANKS IN PART TO THE RAIN THAT FELL WITH THE COASTAL STORM ON THE
8TH...THE 14 DAY AVERAGE FLOWS FOR CHOWAN AND EASTERN APPOMATTOX BASINS
AND MOST OF THE COASTAL GAGES SHOW NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
AVERAGE FLOWS FOR THE TWO WEEK TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...FOR THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN AND WESTERN APPOMATTOX RIVER BASIN...THE 14 AVERAGE
FLOWS HAVE FALLEN TO BELOW NORMAL FLOWS DUE TO THE LOWER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...BOTH IN THOSE AREAS...BUT ALSO IN THE HEADWATER AREAS
FOR THESE BASINS.

HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE DAILY STREAM FLOWS TODAY...FEBRUARY
21ST...SHOWS THAT THE RIVER LEVELS HAVE FALLEN TO MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL FLOWS AS THE WATER THAT FELL WITH THE HEAVY RAIN ON THE 8TH HAS
MOVED THROUGH THE BASINS. ONLY THE BLACKWATER RIVER AND COASTAL
RIVER GAGES ON THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE DELMARVA ARE READING NEAR
NORMAL STREAM FLOWS. THE OTHER BASINS ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA HAVE BELOW NORMAL FLOWS...INCLUDING THE
JAMES RIVER AND PARTS OF THE YORK RIVER BASIN WHICH ARE MEASURING
FLOWS THAT ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

SOME OBSERVED DAILY STREAM FLOWS WITH THE MEDIAN FLOW DURING THE
LATE MORNING HOURS OF THE 21ST OF FEBRUARY:

LOCATION OBSERVED MEDIAN/PERCENTAGE
                                                        OF MEDIAN

RIVANNA RIVER/PALMYRA VA         345CFS   719CFS/ 48.0 
JAMES RIVER/CARTERSVILLE VA     3210CFS  8490CFS/ 37.8 
JAMES RIVER/RICHMOND VA         3170CFS  8690CFS/ 36.5 
APPOMATTOX RIVER/FARMVILLE VA  197CFS   285CFS/ 69.1
APPOMATTOX RIVER/MATTOAX VA  353CFS   754CFS/ 46.8 
APPOMATTOX RIVER/MATOACA VA  574CFS  1330CFS/ 43.2
NOTTOWAY RIVER/RAWLINGS VA  159CFS   357CFS/ 44.5  
NOTTOWAY RIVER/STONY CREEK VA  261CFS   663CFS/ 39.3 
NOTTOWAY RIVER/SEBRELL VA 1200CFS   2050CFS/ 58.5
MEHERRIN RIVER/EMPORIA VA        399CFS    776CFS/ 51.4 
BLACKWATER RIVER/FRANKLIN VA1070CFS  1010CFS/105.9 
MATTAPONI RIVER/BOWLING GREEN VA 105CFS   260CFS/ 40.4 
MATTAPONI RIVER/BEULAHVILLE VA  321CFS   715CFS/ 44.9
BEAVER DAM CREEK/SALISBURY MD  26CFS    30CFS/ 86.7
POCOMOKE RIVER/ WILLARDS MD 110CFS    83CFS/132.5
POTECASI CREEK/UNION NC  195CFS   363CFS/ 53.1 

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS

SOIL MOISTURE INDICATORS INCLUDING THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY
INDEX...WHICH IS USED TO INFER DEEP SOIL MOISTURE...SHOWS...AS OF
FEBRUARY 16TH...THAT ALL AREA ARE IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR SOIL
MOISTURE EXCEPT FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WHICH ARE DENOTED AS UNUSUALLY MOIST. THIS INDICATOR REMAINS
UNCHANGED SINCE THE FEBRUARY 2ND ISSUANCE.  THE CPC SOIL MOISTURE
MONITOR...WHICH LOOKS MORE AT THE TOPSOIL MOISTURE...INDICATES
NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS FOR ALL AREAS IN THE WAKEFIELD HSA AS OF
FEBRUARY 20TH...EXCEPT IN THE TIDEWATER AREA OF VIRGINIA WHERE THE
INDICATOR SHOWS A SMALL POSITIVE ANOMALY.

GROUND WATER - NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

GROUND WATER WELLS IN THE CLIMATE RESPONSE NETWORK ARE ALL
INDICATING NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL GROUND WATER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH EACH RAIN EVENT THE GROUND WATER WELLS ARE
RESPONDING WITH INCREASING WATER LEVELS...WHICH GIVES AN INDICATION
THAT WITH EACH RAIN EVENT...THE GROUNDWATER CONTINUES TO BE
RECHARGED.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL. RESERVOIRS LEVELS AT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE NEAR GUIDE CURVE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WATER STORAGE IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE. 

WITH RESPECT TO FUTURE WEATHER...
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS PUSHING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WILL ARRIVE IN THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD. IT WILL ENCOUNTER A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS
INITIALLY...WHICH WILL SERVE TO HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. ENOUGH WARM AIR
SHOULD PUSH IN BY MID DAY TO CHANGE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
RAIN. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE UP THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
95...CONCENTRATED FROM THE TIDEWATER AREA INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THERE. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT AMOUNTS TO BE UNDER AN INCH. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECT TO LIFT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY PROVIDING MORE WET
WEATHER. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL
AS ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WEATHER MAKER COULD IMPACT THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON THE 28TH OF FEBRUARY

IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD...FROM THE 1ST TO 7TH OF MARCH...
THE CURRENT OUTLOOK IS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. 

LASTLY...THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY SHOWS
AN HIGHER CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. FOR PRECIPITATION...MOST OF THE AREA IS IN THE EQUAL
CHANCES CATEGORY...EXCEPT RIGHT IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE
TIDEWATER AREA WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. 

RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THROUGH MARCH 7TH 2013...

THE RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WAKEFIELD HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA IS NORMAL FOR ALL BASINS...INCLUDING THE JAMES AND
APPOMATTOX AND OTHER TRIBUTARIES ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA... THE
CHOWAN BASIN IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
THE LOWER ROANOKE BASIN IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH MARCH 7TH.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER OR HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...VISIT OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD.


$$

ESS