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FGUS71 KAKQ 072207
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MDC019-039-045-047-NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-131-139-143-VAC001-
007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-081-085-087-093-095-
097-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-145-147-149-159-
175-181-183-193-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-700-710-730-735-740-
760-800-810-830-212215-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
507 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013

...THIRD WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR 2013...

...RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FEBRUARY 21ST...

EACH WINTER AND EARLY SPRING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN WAKEFIELD ISSUES A SERIES OF FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS.
THESE OUTLOOKS ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS
THE WAKEFIELD FORECAST OFFICE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). THE
HSA INCLUDES CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...LOWER MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE
OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS
INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL
MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...STREAM FLOWS...
RIVER ICE...AND EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

IN THIS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE
PRIMARY FACTOR THAT LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW.
 
THE FOLLOWING IS A BRIEF SUMMARY OF CURRENT CONDITIONS:

CURRENT FLOODING - NO RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY IN FLOOD AS OF 4 PM
THURSDAY FEBRUARY 7TH.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - OVER THE LAST 14 DAYS FROM JANUARY 24TH
THROUGH FEBRUARY 7TH...MOST LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED RAIN AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.50 INCHES. THESE TOTALS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN
0.5 AND 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. ONLY FAR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...INCLUDING LOUISA AND FLUVANNA COUNTIES SAW NORMAL RAINFALL
WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 2.5 INCHES FOR THE 14 DAY PERIOD. HEAVIER RAIN
DID FALL ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER OVER THE 29TH
AND 30TH OF JANUARY WHICH LED TO SUBSEQUENT FLOODING ON THE JAMES
AT RICHMOND WESTHAM AND THE RICHMOND LOCKS LOCATIONS.

LOOKING AT THE 30 DAY PERIOD FROM JANUARY 6TH THROUGH FEBRUARY
6TH...RAINFALL TOTALS WERE GENERALLY GREATER THAN 3 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A MAX OF 6 TO 7 INCHES FALLING ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CHOWAN AND APPOMATTOX BASINS. THESE AMOUNTS RANGED
FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE 30 DAY PERIOD. ONLY ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN
TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA WAS THE RAIN BELOW NORMAL...WHERE AMOUNTS
WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES FOR THE PERIOD.

THANKS IN PART TO THIS RAIN...THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION HAVE IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY WITH ALL DROUGHT DESIGNATIONS
ACROSS THE JAMES APPOMATTOX AND CHOWAN BASINS HAVING BEEN REMOVED
AS THURSDAY FEBRUARY 7TH. HOWEVER...THE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH
CAROLINA HAVE LED TO THE ROANOKE BASIN AND COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS ABNORMALLY DRY OR D0. FOR FURTHER
DROUGHT INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:

HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

SNOW CONDITIONS - AVERAGE.

THERE IS NO SNOW CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND IN THE WAKEFIELD HSA.

RIVER ICE - AVERAGE.

AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO ICE ON AREA WATERS IN THE WAKEFIELD
HSA.

STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS - NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.

THE 14 DAY AVERAGE STREAM FLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL AFTER THE RAIN
THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE TREND ON THE
CHOWAN AND APPOMATTOX RIVERS HAS SHOWN FALLING AVERAGE STREAM
FLOWS AS WATER HAS MOVED THROUGH THE BASINS FOLLOWING THE HEAVY
RAIN THAT FELL FROM THE 14TH THROUGH THE 17TH. 

HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE DAILY STREAM FLOWS TODAY...FEBRUARY
7TH...SHOWS THAT THE RIVER LEVELS HAVE FALLEN TO MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL FLOWS AS THE WATER THAT FELL WITH THE HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE BASINS. ONLY THE JAMES RIVER AND BLACKWATER RIVER AS
SHOWING NEAR NORMAL FLOWS. THE OTHER BASINS ACROSS EASTERN
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA HAVE BELOW NORMAL FLOWS AT
THIS TIME. ACROSS THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...THE FLOWS ARE
MIXED WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEAR NORMAL WHILE ON THE POCOMOKE RIVER
AND BEAVER DAM CREEK...THE FLOWS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW NORMAL
FLOWS.

SOME OBSERVED DAILY STREAM FLOWS WITH THE MEDIAN FLOW FOR THE
7TH OF FEBRUARY:

LOCATION OBSERVED MEDIAN/PERCENTAGE
                                                        OF MEDIAN

RIVANNA RIVER/PALMYRA VA         712CFS   760CFS/101.7 
JAMES RIVER/CARTERSVILLE VA     6800CFS  6800CFS/100.0 
JAMES RIVER/RICHMOND VA         7330CFS  7070CFS/103.7 
APPOMATTOX RIVER/FARMVILLE VA  156CFS   300CFS/ 52.0
APPOMATTOX RIVER/MATTOAX VA  524CFS   748CFS/ 70.1 
APPOMATTOX RIVER/MATOACA VA  848CFS  1390CFS/ 61.0
NOTTOWAY RIVER/RAWLINGS VA  133CFS   350CFS/ 38.0  
NOTTOWAY RIVER/STONY CREEK VA  235CFS   641CFS/ 36.7 
NOTTOWAY RIVER/SEBRELL VA 1010CFS   1810CFS/ 55.8
MEHERRIN RIVER/EMPORIA VA        311CFS    746CFS/ 41.7 
BLACKWATER RIVER/FRANKLIN VA 767CFS   880CFS/ 87.2 
MATTAPONI RIVER/BOWLING GREEN VA  95CFS   265CFS/ 35.8 
MATTAPONI RIVER/BEULAHVILLE VA  349CFS   630CFS/ 55.4
BEAVER DAM CREEK/SALISBURY MD  14CFS    30CFS/ 46.7
POCOMOKE RIVER/ WILLARDS MD  45CFS    90CFS/ 50.0

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS

SOIL MOISTURE INDICATORS INCLUDING THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY
INDEX...WHICH IS USED TO INFER DEEP SOIL MOISTURE...SHOWS...AS OF
FEBRUARY 2ND...THAT ALL AREA ARE IN THE NORMAL RANGE FOR SOIL
MOISTURE EXCEPT FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WHICH ARE DENOTED AS UNUSUALLY MOIST. THE CPC SOIL MOISTURE
MONITOR...WHICH LOOKS MORE AT THE TOPSOIL MOISTURE...INDICATES
NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS FOR ALL AREAS IN THE WAKEFIELD HSA AS OF
FEBRUARY 6TH.

GROUND WATER - NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

GROUND WATER WELLS HAVE RESPONDED TO RECENT RAIN FALLS AND ARE
SHOWING THAT THEY HAVE REACH THE RECHARGE PERIOD WITH WATER LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE RISE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD ONLY
SERVE TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE GROUND WATER CONDITIONS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL. RESERVOIRS LEVELS AT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE NEAR GUIDE CURVE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WATER STORAGE IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE. 

WITH RESPECT TO FUTURE WEATHER...
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NE ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY PRODUCING 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN FOR COAST AREAS WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A 0.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. AFTER A DRY WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING ANOTHER 0.5 TO
1 INCHES OF RAIN. AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT COULD PRODUCE MORE RAIN BY MID
WEEK...BUT THIS RAIN IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN.

IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD...FROM THE 15TH TO 21ST OF FEBRUARY...THE
CURRENT OUTLOOK IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

LASTLY...THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL SHOWS
EQUAL CHANCES OF NEAR NORMAL...ABOVE NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE ENSO CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO
REMAIN IN THE NEUTRAL PHASE...WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
CLIMATOLOGICAL SIGNAL FOR EITHER PRECIPITATION OR TEMPERATURE.

RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THROUGH FEBRUARY 21ST 2013...

THE RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WAKEFIELD HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA IS NORMAL FOR ALL BASINS...INCLUDING THE JAMES AND
APPOMATTOX AND OTHER TRIBUTARIES ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA... THE
CHOWAN BASIN IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
THE LOWER ROANOKE BASIN IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THE 21ST OF FEBRUARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER OR HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...VISIT OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD.


$$