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FGUS71 KAKQ 242241
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MDC019-039-045-047-NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-131-139-143-VAC001-
007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-081-085-087-093-095-
097-101-103-109-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-145-147-149-159-
175-181-183-193-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-700-710-730-735-740-
760-800-810-830-072245-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
541 PM EST THU JAN 24 2013

...SECOND WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR 2013...

...RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FEBRUARY 7TH...

EACH WINTER AND EARLY SPRING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN WAKEFIELD ISSUES A SERIES OF FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS.
THESE OUTLOOKS ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS
THE WAKEFIELD FORECAST OFFICE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). THE
HSA INCLUDES CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...LOWER MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE
OUTLOOK IS BASED ON THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE FACTORS
INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL
MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...STREAM FLOWS...
RIVER ICE...AND EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS.

IN THIS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE
PRIMARY FACTOR THAT LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW.
 
THE FOLLOWING IS A BRIEF SUMMARY OF CURRENT CONDITIONS:

CURRENT FLOODING - THE NOTTOWAY RIVER AT SEBRELL REMAINS IN MINOR
FLOOD RANGE AS OF 4 PM THURSDAY JANUARY 24TH. THE RIVER IS
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING...JANUARY 25TH.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - AFTER A NEARLY THREE MONTH PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION...HEAVY RAIN FELL OVER A 4 DAY PERIOD FROM
JANUARY 14 - 17TH. DURING THE 4 DAY PERIOD...RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES FELL ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CHOWAN BASIN AND THE
ENTIRE APPOMATTOX BASIN INTO THE MIDDLE PENINSULA AND NORTHERN
NECK. ELSEWHERE RAIN AMOUNTS WERE 2 TO 3 INCHES...EXPECT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 0.50 TO 1.50
INCHES. ACROSS VIRGINA AND MARYLAND... THESE TOTALS WERE GENERALLY
1 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THE AMOUNTS WHERE ACTUAL BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND AN INCH.

WHILE THE RAIN CERTAINLY HAS HELPED IN THE SHORT TERM TO SATURATE
THE SOIL...IN THE LONGER RANGE...SOME PRECIPITATION DEFICITS DO
REMAIN. LOOK BY TO LAST OCTOBER THROUGH THE PRESENT...RAINFALL
DEFICITS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. BUT ELSEWHERE...TOTALS HAVE RECOVERED
TO NEAR NORMAL RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE PERIOD WITH MUCH OF THE AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SHOWING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THANKS IN PART TO THIS RAIN...THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION HAVE IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY WITH THE MODERATE DROUGHT
DESIGNATION THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE APPOMATTOX BASIN FOR
THE LAST FEW MONTHS HAVING BEEN REMOVED. THE ONLY LINGERING
DROUGHT DESIGNATION FOR THE AREA IS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...IN THE ROANOKE BASIN WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE STILL DEEMED TO BE ABNORMALLY DRY. ELSEWHERE THE
REGION IS DEEMED TO BE DROUGHT FREE. FOR FURTHER DROUGHT
INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:

HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

SNOW CONDITIONS - AVERAGE.

SOME LIGHT SNOW IS ON THE GROUND FROM CAROLINE COUNTY AND THE
RICHMOND VICINITY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND MIDDLE
PENINSULA INTO THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGINIA DELMARVA. SNOW TOTALS ON AVERAGE RANGE FROM A DUSTING
UP TO ABOUT 2 INCHES...WITH A FEW AREAS HAVING SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RIVER ICE - AVERAGE.

AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO ICE ON AREA WATERS IN THE WAKEFIELD
HSA.

STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS - NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.

THE 14 DAY AVERAGE STREAM FLOWS HAVE IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY THANKS
TO THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL. STREAMS FLOWS ARE NOW EITHER NORMAL
OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS IN THE 14 AVERAGE FLOW. THE
CHOWAN AND APPOMATTOX BASINS ARE SHOWING ABOVE NORMAL
FLOWS...WHILE THE JAMES RIVER BASIN...THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE AND THE ROANOKE BASIN ARE SHOWING NORMAL FLOWS. ONLY THE
YORK RIVER BASIN...WHICH WAS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN
BAND CONTINUES TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL FLOWS.

LOOKING AT THE DAILY STREAM FLOWS TODAY...JANUARY 24TH...SHOWS
THAT THE RIVER LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL FLOWS
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WHILE PORTIONS OF THE CHOWAN BASIN
CONTINUE TO SHOW ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS...THE REMAINING BASINS HAVE
SEEN RIVER LEVELS DROPPING OVER THE LAST WEEK WITH FLOWS BACK TO
NORMAL AS OF JANUARY 24TH. ONLY THE YORK BASIN IS SHOWING BELOW
NORMAL FLOWS IN THE DAILY STREAM FLOW VALUES.

SOME OBSERVED DAILY STREAM FLOWS WITH THE MEDIAN FLOW FOR THE 24TH
OF JANUARY:

LOCATION OBSERVED MEDIAN/PERCENTAGE
                                                        OF MEDIAN

RIVANNA RIVER/PALMYRA VA         434CFS   666CFS/ 65.2 
JAMES RIVER/CARTERSVILLE VA     5870CFS  6920CFS/ 84.8 
JAMES RIVER/RICHMOND VA         6480CFS  6480CFS/100.0 
APPOMATTOX RIVER/FARMVILLE VA  261CFS   246CFS/106.1
APPOMATTOX RIVER/MATTOAX VA  938CFS   649CFS/144.5 
APPOMATTOX RIVER/MATOACA VA 3240CFS  1140CFS/284.2
NOTTOWAY RIVER/RAWLINGS VA  226CFS   283CFS/ 79.9  
NOTTOWAY RIVER/STONY CREEK VA  415CFS   600CFS/ 69.2 
NOTTOWAY RIVER/SEBRELL VA 7080CFS   1520CFS/465.8
MEHERRIN RIVER/EMPORIA VA        494CFS    673CFS/ 73.4 
MATTAPONI RIVER/BOWLING GREEN VA  92CFS   251CFS/ 36.7 
MATTAPONI RIVER/BEULAHVILLE VA  407CFS   700CFS/ 58.1

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS

SOIL MOISTURE INDICATORS INCLUDING THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY
INDEX...WHICH IS USED TO INFER DEEP SOIL MOISTURE...SHOWS...AS OF
JANUARY 19TH...THE EASTERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND AREAS NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ARE IN THE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CATEGORY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...INCLUDING ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 INCLUDING AREAS NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE
DELMARVA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...ARE DENOTED AS UNUSUALLY
MOIST. THE CPC SOIL MOISTURE MONITOR...WHICH LOOKS MORE AT THE
TOPSOIL MOISTURE...INDICATES NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS FOR THE
DELMARVA...AND THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT COUNTIES INTO NORTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER AREA SHOW ANOMALIES THAT
ARE 20 TO 40 MM ABOVE NORMAL.

GROUND WATER - NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. 

THE GROUNDWATER WELLS MONITORED BY THE USGS SHOW LEVELS ACROSS
THE HSA THAT ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST
WELLS ARE SHOWING RISING VALUES IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVY RAIN LAST
WEEK. SEVERAL WELL ON THE DELMARVA ARE REPORTING GROUNDWATER
LEVELS THAT ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL. RESERVOIRS LEVELS AT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE NEAR GUIDE CURVE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WATER STORAGE IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE. JOHN KERR DAM THAT HAD BEEN
RUNNING BELOW GUIDE SAW AN 11 FT RISE IN POOL STAGE AND IS NOW
ABOVE GUIDE CURVE AS OF THIS ISSUANCE.

WITH RESPECT TO FUTURE WEATHER...
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
WINTRY WEATHER TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. AFTER A COOL AND DRY WEEKEND...A WARM
UP IS EXPECT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWING
THROUGH WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD...FROM THE 1ST TO 7TH OF FEBRUARY...THE
CURRENT OUTLOOK IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW IS MORE NORTHWESTERLY OUT OF
CANADA DURING THE PERIOD.

LASTLY...THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL SHOWS
EQUAL CHANCES OF NEAR NORMAL...ABOVE NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE ENSO CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO
REMAIN IN THE NEUTRAL PHASE...WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
CLIMATOLOGICAL SIGNAL FOR EITHER PRECIPITATION OR TEMPERATURE.

RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK THROUGH FEBRUARY 7TH 2013...

THE RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WAKEFIELD HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA IS NORMAL FOR ALL BASINS...INCLUDING THE JAMES AND
APPOMATTOX AND OTHER TRIBUTARIES ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA... THE
CHOWAN BASIN IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
THE LOWER ROANOKE BASIN IN NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THE 7TH OF FEBRUARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER OR HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...VISIT OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/WAKEFIELD.


$$