Wildfires can occur in the Wakefield County Warning Area (CWA)
at any time. As a result, the fire weather forecast will be issued
year-round. However, the peaks of the fire weather season are as
follows:
February 15 - May 15
and October 15 -
December 15
The annual hunting season also starts in mid-September, which
leads to an increased risk of fire starts.
The FWF provides a detailed prediction of elements for three
specific 12-hour periods (four 12-hour periods with the afternoon
forecast), a general 3 to 7 day forecast, and an 8 to 14 day
extended outlook. The FWF is issued twice daily, once during the
morning (between 3:00 and 6:00 AM), and the other during the
afternoon (between 2:00 and 4:00 PM). The morning forecast, to be
disseminated no later than 8:30 AM, consists of three periods:
"Today" (valid from issuance through 6 PM local time), "Tonight" (6
PM to 6 AM), and "Tomorrow" (6 AM to 6 PM). The afternoon version ,
to be disseminated no later than 4:00 PM, consists of four periods:
"Tonight" (6 PM to 6 AM), "Tomorrow" 6 AM to 6 PM), "Tomorrow Night"
(6 PM to 6 AM), and the "Following Day" (6 AM to 6 PM).
182002 | Blackwater USFW/NWR | Dorchester, MD | 8 ft | 38.42N
| 76.00W
Contents
The NFDRS forecast will be a forecast of the next day observation
at 1300 LT. The format of the NFDRS forecast is specified in National
Weather Service Directive 10-401. The forecast will include the
following elements:
a. ZONE/FCST: Shows whether this forecast is for an NFDRS zone
or individual station. Zone average trends are forecast when enough
observation are available for the zone area. Individual site forecasts
are done where only a few observation are available.
b. NO: NFDRS Zone Number (or individual NFDRS site number).
c. YYMMDD: Year, month and day of valid forecast time.
d. 13: Valid forecast time. Always 1300 LST.
e. WX: Weather valid at 1300 LST tomorrow. Valid entries are:
0 = clear
1 = scattered clouds (1/8 to 4/8)
2 = broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8)
3 = overcast clouds (more than 7/8)
4 = fog
5 = drizzle
6 = rain
7 = snow or sleet
8 = showers (in sight or at the station)
9 = thunderstorm
(Categories 5, 6 or 7 sets NFDRS index to 0)
f. TEMP: Temperature in degrees F valid at 1300 LST (or temperature
trend + or - degrees F).
g. RH: Relative Humidity in percent valid at 1300 LST (or RH
trend + or - percent).
h. LAL1: Lightning Activity Level 1400 LST to 2300 LST.
i. LAL2: Lightning Activity Level 2300 LST to 2300 LST.
j. WDIR: Wind Direction. Used only for point forecast (FCST)
version. Enter direction using sixteen point compass (N, NNE,
NE, ENE, etc.) valid at 1300 LST (20 ft level, 10 minute average).
k. WSPD: Wind Speed. Enter wind speed in mph (or wind speed trend
+ or - mph) valid at 1300 LST (20 ft, 10 minute average).
l. 10HR: 10 hour timelag fuel moisture in percent valid at 1300
LST (or trend + or - percent).
m. Tx: Maximum temperature from 1300 LST to 1300 LST tomorrow.
n. Tn: Minimum temperature from 1300 LST to 1300 LST tomorrow.
o. RHx: Maximum relative humidity from 1300 LST to 1300 LST tomorrow.
p. RHn: Minimum relative humidity from 1300 LST to 1300 LST tomorrow.
q. PD1: Precipitation duration in hours 1300 LST to 0500 LST.
r. PD 2: Precipitation duration in hours 0500 LST to 1300 LST.
s. WETFLAG: Y or N. Indicates whether liquid water will be on
the fuels at 1300 LST tomorrow. (Use with caution. A "Y" will
set all the NFDRS indices to zero!).
Format. The NFDRS Forecast will follow the comma delimited format
as shown:
ZONE,NO,YYMMDD,13,WX,TEMP,RH,LAL1,LAL2,WSPD,10HR,TX,TN,RHx,RHn,PD1,PD2,WETFLAG
FCST,NO,YYMMDD,13,WX,TEMP,RH,LAL1,LAL2,WDIR,WSPD,10HR,TX,TN,RHx,RHn,PD1,PD2,WETFLAG
Procedures
The land management agencies are responsible for taking, quality
controlling, transmitting and archiving the NFDRS observations.
Observation must be received at the NWS in a timely manner. Forecasts
will only be prepared for predetermined sites, and only from those
sites for which an observation has been received. The deadline
for the land management agency for transmitting the observation
is 1900 GMT (2:00 PM EST or 3:00 PM EDT). The NWS will prepare
and transmit the NFDRS forecasts no later than 1945 GMT (2:45
PM EST or 3:45 PM EDT). Although the data cutoff time for ingest
into the NFDRS software is 7 PM, preliminary calculations based
on the forecast are used by the land managers to make staffing
decisions at shift briefing time (4 PM).
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Fire Weather Watch and Red Flag Programs
During periods in which critical fire weather conditions are
expected or imminent, the NWS will issue statements, watches and
warnings to describe the level of urgency to the appropriate user
agencies. These issuances will be coordinated with natural resource
agencies.
Definition of a Red Flag Event
A Red Flag Event occurs when critical weather conditions develop
which could lead to extensive wildfire occurrence or to extreme
fire behavior. Red Flag Events represent a threat to life and property,
and may adversely impact fire fighting personnel and resources.
Critical weather conditions include combinations of the following:
strong, gusty winds; very low relative humidity; high to extreme
fire danger (very low fuel moisture).
Historically, the highest risk of significant
fire starts and blow-ups occur when fuels are sufficiently dry and
dry cold fronts pass over the region. Dry cold fronts typically
cause lower humidity levels and produce shifting and increasing
wind. In an effort to simplify the Red Flag Warning process, forecasters
at the Wakefield NWS office will mainly be concerned with the specific
weather conditions and critical weather patterns necessary to produce
Red Flag conditions. Tracking fuel moisture will be the responsibility
of the fire product user agencies. **As a result, coordination will
be necessary with the Virginia Interagency Coordination Center (VICC),
and the Manongahela National Forest (MFS), when a forecaster considers
a Red Flag Warning or Fire Weather Watch. **
Generally, a Red Flag Warning will be issued when:
IN MARYLAND:
* Ten-hour fuel moistures are observed or
expected to be 10 percent or less. This is an essential
requirement and should be coordinated with the Eastern Region
Maryland Department of Natural Resources (DNR). In the event coordination
is not possible, the forecaster may, at his or her discretion,
use the fuel moisture from the Blackwater RAWS (Site ID #182002).
-AND-
* Relative humidity is expected to fall below 30 percent at any
time over the forecast area along with sustained winds of 20 mph
or more.
The sustained wind will be a two-minute averaged, 20 foot-level
wind forecast and will match the forecast wind in the fire zones.
Red Flag Warning
A Red Flag Warning will be issued, after coordination with the appropriate
natural resource agencies, when a Red Flag Event is occurring or
is imminent. The warning will be issued for all or a portion of
the forecast area. It will be issued immediately once the forecaster
and the appropriate natural resource agency have determined that
a Red Flag Event is ongoing. Otherwise, it shall be issued for impending
Red Flag conditions when there is a high degree of confidence that
conditions will develop within 24 hours. The warning will continue
until the conditions cease to exist or fail to develop as forecast.
At such time, the warning will be canceled. The format of the Red
Flag Warning is specified in National Weather Service Directive
10-401. A sample Red Flag Warning is in the Appendix.
Fire Weather Watch
A Fire Weather Watch will be issued, after coordination with the
appropriate natural resource agencies, to advise of the possible
development of a Red Flag Event in the near future. It will be issued
for all or part of the forecast area. A Fire Weather Watch is issued
when the forecaster and appropriate natural resource agencies are
reasonably confident that a Red Flag Event will occur. A watch should
be issued 12 to 48 hours in advance of, but not more 72 hours in
advance of, the expected onset of of the critical weather conditions.
The watch will remain in effect until either it is determined the
Red Flag Event will not develop, or that the watch should be upgraded
to a warning. If conditions are not expected to occur as forecast,
the watch will be canceled. The format of the Fire Weather Watch
is specified in National Weather Service Directive 10-401.
Fire Danger Statements and Blow-Up Alerts
When fire danger or fire occurrence is high and is coupled with
critical weather conditions, user agencies may request that the
NWS issue a Fire Danger Statement or Blowup Alert. These statements
will be issued in coordination with the requesting agency and will
only be issued with their approval. The NWS will use the Special
Weather Statement (SPS) for these issuances.
Other Related Forecast
Products
National Digital Forecast Database
(NDFD)
Graphical Forecasts of (among other parameters)
sky condition, temperatures, dewpoint temperatures, relative humidity,
winds, and precipitation are prepared for the general public and
can be accessed from the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)
web page. Refer to the following example (just click on region
of interest from map): NDFD
Area and Point Forecast Matrices
(AFM and PFM)
Digital forecasts of temperatures, dewpoint
temperatures, relative humidity, winds, sky condition, and precipitation.
The AFM replaced the RDF in 2003. The AFM is a "zone"
forecast where the weather elements are "averaged" over
a group of counties. The PFM is a "point" or site-specific
forecast for various airport locations, and (recently added in
2004) various RAWS sites in the Wakefield CWA. Refer to the following
example for the AFM: WBCAFMAKQ
Refer to the following example for the PFM: WBCPFMAKQ.
Public Zone Forecasts (ZFP)
Written forecasts for sky condition, temperatures,
winds and precipitation are prepared for the general public and
are grouped by county jurisdictions. For the most part, the forecasts
in the public zones will be similar to the information in the
Daily Fire Weather Forecast. The public zone forecast includes
a detailed 48-hour forecast and a more general 3 to 7 day forecast.
Refer to the following example:
WBCZFPAKQ
Special Weather Statements (SPS)
Special Weather Statements are focused
for the public interests; however fire weather users may find
the information presented in this product useful for planning
purposes. Special Weather Statements discuss significant weather
events that are occurring or are expected to occur during the
forecast period. These statements can provide more detail about
various types of weather as well as any watches or advisories
that may significantly impact fire weather operations. The issuance
of a Special Weather Statement is at the forecasters discretion.
Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning
(NPW)
When windy conditions are expected in
the absence of convective weather, a Wind Advisory or High Wind
Warning will be issued. These products are also geared for the
public, but the conditions forecasted will still have an impact
on fire weather operations. Typically, the conditions that warrant
the issuance of either one of these products occurs during the
winter and spring months, after a passage of a strong cold front.
A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained
wind speeds of 31 to 39 mph (27 to 34 knots) are expected to occur
for longer than an hour, or when wind gusts between 46 and 57
mph (40 to 49 knots) are forecasted for any duration.
A High Wind Warning is issued when sustained
wind speeds of 40 mph (35 knots) or greater are expected for a
duration of an hour or more, or for winds of 58 mph (50 knots)
of any duration.
Short Term Forecasts (NOW)
Short Term Forecasts are issued by the
NWS as needed. These brief forecasts give more detail to the
public zone forecast, such as the location and movement of a thunderstorm.
Public Information Statement (PNS)
This product can be used to heighten the
publics awareness of an upcoming weather event.
Participation in Interagency Groups
At a minimum, one NWS representative (usually the State Liaison
WFO Fire Weather Program Leader or MIC) will attend the State
Interagency meetings or working groups where fire weather or smoke
management policy is discussed as an integral part of the meeting.
However, it is strongly recommended that all NWS offices with
fire weather responsibility attend the meetings to ensure uniform
representation.
Special fire weather services are those services that are uniquely
required by natural resource agencies and go beyond the normal
forecast operations of the NWS. Special services include Incident
Meteorologist (IMET) deployment, station visits, training, and
other pertinent meteorological services that are designated as
non-routine.
Typically, special services require NWS personnel to be away
from the Forecast Office and, in some instances, be in overtime
status. User agencies are responsible for covering the cost of
NWS overtime, travel and per diem expenses. Reimbursement of costs
for special services will be as outlined in the Interagency
Agreement for Meteorological Services
Incident Support
On-site forecast service support is available for wildfires and
prescribed burns. This includes the deployment of an Incident
Meteorologist (IMET) and related service equipment such as the
Advanced Technology Meteorological Unit (ATMU), the All Hazards
Meteorological Response System (AMRS), and the Fire Remote Automated
Weather Station (Fire RAWS). The IMET, ATMU, AMRS, and the Fire
RAWS are considered national fire fighting resources, and can
be requested through the Virginia Interagency Coordination Center.
The ATMU and AMRS are modularized and mobile systems of equipment
used by an Incident Meteorologist (IMET) for data collection and
forecast preparation. Only trained personnel will operate the
ATMU and AMRS, and this service equipment will only be dispatched
to an incident when a certified IMET is requested. The IMET is
responsible for ordering and arranging shipment for the ATMU and
AMRS.
There are 25 ATMUs cached across the country, mostly in the western
states. The nearest ATMU cache
to the state of North Carolina is London, KY, where two are maintained.
AMRS workstations
are also pre-positioned across the country, most of which are
collocated with existing Weather Forecast Offices that contain
certified IMETS. These AMRS workstations are maintained by the
IMETS and are typically shipped with the IMET being mobilized.
The ATMU is composed of one large shipping box consisting of
a theodolite with tripod, a belt weather kit, PIBAL weather balloons,
a nozzle and regulator for a helium tank, and office supplies
and miscellaneous expendables. Its volume is 13.8 cubic feet and
it weighs 122 pounds.
The AMRS is also composed of one large shipping box, and contains
a laptop computer, a satellite dish for obtaining weather data,
and a printer. The volume of the satellite dish is 13.8 cubic
feet, and its weight is 122 pounds.
Total weight of the ATMU and AMRS is 244 lbs with a volume of
27.6 cubic feet. The cubic feet are necessary for shipment by
air. The same specification shown are listed in the user agencies'
National Mobilization Guide.
Requests for the ATMU, AMRS, and IMET should be made through
the Virginia Interagency Coordination Center. Typically, the IMET
nearest the incident will be deployed. However, during times of
limited resources, IMETs from other areas of the country may be
called. The decision will be made by the Special Meteorologist
to NIFC (SMC) in conjunction with the MIC and IMET from the affected
offices. It is the responsibility of the IMET to arrange shipment
of the AMRS workstation.
The success of the operation depends in part on the user agency
providing shelter and logistical support. Prior to the use of
this equipment, the IMET is expected to have coordinated with
the local user agency to ensure proper field support. If an IMET
determines that an ATMU and/or Fire RAWS is desirable, it is the
IMET's responsibility to ensure the ATMU and Fire RAWS have also
been ordered for the incident.
The requesting agency is responsible for any storage of service
equipment while in transit, and shelter for the IMET and service
equipment at the site. A sheltered work area, of at least 50 square
feet with a table and chair, must be protected from excessive
dust, free of standing water or condensation, and must be heated
and/or cooled sufficiently to allow efficient operation of equipment.
Power (120V AC) must be provided for the AMRS's electrical equipment,
and priority telephone access during certain short periods each
day must be made available.
The procedure for requesting IMETs will follow the guidelines
outlined in the national MOA, the National Mobilization Guide,
and the Southern Area Interagency Mobilization Guide. The following
information will be provided to the requested IMET:
1. Name of fire.
2. Location of fire.
3. Directions to location where the IMET is to report and the
location of ICP.
4. Name of Incident Commander, Plans Chief, and FBAN, if available.
5. Request and Resource Order number for IMET.
Upon arrival at the incident and after going through the appropriate
check-in procedures, the IMET will:
- Brief the Fire Behavior Analyst (FBAN), Planning Section Chief
(PSC), and the Incident Commander (IC) on current and expected
weather as it affects the fire.
- Establish a schedule with the IC and the FBAN for written
forecasts and formal briefings.
- Request a briefing of the fire situation and potential behavior
problems from the FBAN. As time and resources permit, incident
management should arrange for an aerial inspection trip for
the meteorologist and should provide the forecaster with current
fireline maps. If possible, the IMET should be assigned a radio
with the fireline frequency.
- Arrange for a schedule of observations from key points around
the fire and from nearby lookouts and fire danger stations,
in cooperation with the FBAN and PSC. On large fires, some personnel
(at least two) should be permanently assigned to this duty.
On smaller fires, this information can be provided by Division
Supervisors equipped with belt weather kits.
IMET duties will vary with incident management team requirements,
but the IMET is expected to provide daily weather forecasts for
the incident, participate in shift briefings, planning and strategy
meeting, and coordinate daily with the local Weather Forecast
Office (WFO) and /or other IMETs at nearby incidents.
Demobilization is initiated at the incident, and will be coordinated
through the Virginia Interagency Coordination Center. Upon release,
the user agency will transport the ATMU and Fire RAWS back to
its cache location or to the controlling fire weather office.
Travel arrangements will be made for the IMET back to his or her
home office. The IMET is responsible for transporting the AMRS
workstation back to the home office. If the AMRS unit resides
at a different location than the IMET, the IMET must make arrangements
to ship the equipment to the proper office, and charge any shipping
cost toe the fire.
Other Special Services
Other special services may include weather station visits by
partner agency personnel, RAWS site surveys and inspections, weather
observer training, and course development work or related program
work. These activities would typically be at the full expense
of the requesting agency unless other arrangements have been made.
NWS meteorologists may also be asked to assist in other non-routine
services (e.g. briefings or coordination calls) during periods
of high fire danger or fire occurrence. MICs and Fire Program
Leaders are to ensure the natural resource agency needs are met
with little expense to either agency.
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NWS meteorologists will be available to assist in user-oriented
training. This includes fire behavior courses, such as S-190 and
S-290, where the meteorologist will serve as part of the cadre
for that course. Requests for training assistance should be made
through the NWS office's Fire Weather Program Leader or Meteorologist-in-Charge
(MIC). Sufficient advance notice should be given to allow for
scheduling and proper preparation. Costs incurred by the NWS in
providing training assistance will be borne by the requesting
agency.
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