FGUS71 KAKQ 131312
ESFAKQ
VAZ048-049-060>072-079>083-088>089-092-093-096-NCZ012>015-030>032-
MDZ021>024-272100-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
810 AM EST WED NOV 13 2002

...DROUGHT/WATER RESOURCE STATEMENT...

THE FOLLOWING IS A DROUGHT/WATER RESOURCE STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...EASTERN VIRGINIA...EASTERN SHORE MARYLAND AND
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

...LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONCERN CONTINUES ACROSS VIRGINIA...EASTERN
SHORE MARYLAND AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA BUT CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED...

AS OF NOVEMBER 12TH...GOVERNOR WARNER HAS LIFTED STATEWIDE WATER
RESTRICTIONS...HOWEVER SOME COUNTY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN.

THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR RELEASED ON THE 7TH OF NOVEMBER HAS
INDICATED GREATLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA HAS IMPROVED TO 'ABNORMALLY DRY'.
PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT HAVE IMPROVED TO 'MODERATE'
LONG-TERM DROUGHT. NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED
TO BE IN A DROUGHT.

...PAST PRECIPITATION...

CONSISTENT MODERATE AND HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 2
MONTHS HAVE PROVIDED RELIEF TO CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THUS
FAR...RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER HAVE AVERAGED WELL
OVER 2 INCHES. IN GENERAL ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA...DEFICITS OVER THE LAST 365 DAYS ARE NEAR 4 INCHES IN MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE/VIRGINIA DELMARVA AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS VIRGINIA INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...DEFICITS AVERAGE BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES.
OVER THE LAST 6 MONTHS DEFICITS RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 6 INCHES. OVER
THE LAST 3 MONTHS DEFICITS HAVE BEEN ELIMINATED AS MANY LOCATIONS
ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MORE DETAILED NUMBERS FOR VARIOUS COUNTIES
CAN BE FOUND IN THE TABLE BELOW.

...STREAM FLOW...

STREAM FLOW ALONG THE JAMES...APPOMATTOX...NOTTOWAY AND MEHERRIN
RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. IN GENERAL...RIVER LEVELS
ALONG THE JAMES AND APPOMATTOX ARE BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND
THREE-QUARTERS BANKFULL. ALONG THE NOTTOWAY AND MEHERRIN
RIVERS...LEVELS ARE BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER AND ONE-HALF BANK FULL.

...GROUND WATER...

WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL...GROUND WATER LEVELS HAVE SHOWN POSITIVE
EFFECTS IN MOST LOCATIONS. LONG-TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE WITH THE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

...SOIL MOISTURE...

SOILS ACROSS THE REGIONS ARE SATURATED.


...RESERVOIR STORAGES...

IN GENERAL...RESERVOIRS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE SHOWN RISING POOL
LEVELS. KERR RESERVOIR IS AROUND 299 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL. FULL
POOL IS 320 FT.

...FUTURE WEATHER...

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON NOVEMBER 17TH AS ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM
THIS SYSTEM COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED ONE INCH. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM THE PERIOD OF NOVEMBER14TH THROUGH THE 16TH.

...SUMMARY...

IN THE SHORT TERM...DROUGHT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AS RECENT
RAINS HAVE INCREASED OF WATER LEVELS ACROSS RIVERS AND STREAMS.

LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN. WITH
GROUND WATER STILL BELOW DESIRED LEVELS OVER THE LAST YEAR...MORE
PERIODIC AND CONSISTENT RAIN THROUGHOUT THE FALL AND WINTER MONTHS
ARE ESSENTIAL TO ELIMINATE THIS CONCERN.

SEE THE CHART BELOW FOR PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND DEPARTURES PER
COUNTY IN MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA.

PRECIPITATION AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL PER COUNTY FOR THE INDICATED
PERIOD ENDING AT 7 AM TUESDAY NOVEMBER 12TH:


JAMES & APPOMATTOX RIVER DRAINAGE

MONTH LAST LAST
SO 90 DAYS 180 DAYS LAST 365 DAYS
FAR TOTAL/DEP. TOTAL/DEP. TOTAL/DEP./ %


AMELIA VA 2.1 16.5 5.8 21.4 -.6 37.8 -4.8 -10
CHARLES CITY VA 1.8 14.6 3.4 20.2 -3.1 36.9 -7.3 -16
CHESTERFIELD VA 2.0 16.3 5.3 21.1 -1.3 36.6 -6.3 -14
CUMBERLAND VA 2.0 15.7 5.0 21.5 -.2 37.6 -4.4 -10
DINWIDDIE VA 1.9 15.4 4.3 20.6 -2.4 37.3 -6.5 -14
FLUVANNA VA 1.6 15.0 3.9 23.2 .6 37.2 -5.2 -11
GOOCHLAND VA 2.1 17.3 6.1 24.4 2.0 39.8 -2.8 -6
HENRICO VA 2.0 13.9 3.1 18.5 -4.3 34.4 -8.4 -19
LOUISA VA 1.9 13.6 2.5 21.8 -1.0 35.0 -7.8 -17
NOTTOWAY VA 2.0 16.0 4.9 21.3 -1.3 38.1 -5.1 -11
POWHATAN VA 2.2 17.3 6.3 24.0 2.0 40.0 -2.3 -4
PRINCE EDWARD VA 2.2 16.0 5.2 21.9 -.4 37.9 -4.9 -11
PRINCE GEORGE VA 1.9 15.4 4.2 20.5 -2.5 37.1 -6.9 -15


WESTERN CHESAPEAKE BAY DRAINAGE

MONTH LAST LAST
SO 90 DAYS 180 DAYS LAST 365 DAYS
FAR TOTAL/DEP. TOTAL/DEP. TOTAL/DEP./ %


GLOUCESTER VA 1.8 14.4 3.1 18.3 -5.4 36.1 -8.9 -19
HAMPTON VA 1.7 16.1 4.5 21.1 -3.3 39.6 -6.7 -13
HANOVER VA 2.3 14.3 3.5 19.8 -2.6 35.9 -6.7 -15
JAMES CITY VA 1.8 14.4 2.9 18.6 -5.8 36.1 -10.0 -21
KING & QUEEN VA 2.0 14.5 3.8 19.9 -2.9 36.8 -6.6 -14
KING WILLIAM VA 2.1 14.4 4.0 20.0 -2.7 36.5 -5.9 -13
MATHEWS VA 1.8 14.6 3.5 18.7 -4.6 36.5 -8.1 -17
NEW KENT VA 1.9 14.9 4.0 21.0 -2.1 38.2 -5.6 -12
NEWPORT NEWS VA 1.8 14.9 3.1 19.1 -5.6 37.1 -9.2 -19
NORTHUMBERLAND VA 1.3 15.2 4.1 21.5 -1.4 36.6 -5.6 -12
SURRY VA 1.6 15.8 4.3 22.4 -2.2 39.8 -6.3 -13
YORK VA 1.8 14.6 2.9 18.7 -5.9 36.5 -9.7 -20



WESTERN CHESAPEAKE & RAPPAHANNOCK DRAINAGE

MONTH LAST LAST
SO 90 DAYS 180 DAYS LAST 365 DAYS
FAR TOTAL/DEP. TOTAL/DEP. TOTAL/DEP./ %


CAROLINE VA 2.0 13.0 2.3 18.1 -4.2 32.8 -9.8 -22
ESSEX VA 2.1 13.7 2.9 18.9 -3.6 34.4 -8.3 -19
LANCASTER VA 1.5 14.9 4.0 20.2 -2.8 36.3 -6.6 -14
MIDDLESEX VA 1.8 14.6 3.5 19.6 -3.7 36.9 -7.0 -15
RICHMOND VA 1.3 15.4 4.2 21.6 -1.4 36.7 -5.9 -13
WESTMORELAND VA 1.4 14.3 3.7 21.0 -1.2 35.3 -6.2 -14



EASTERN CHESAPEAKE & ATLANTIC DRAINAGE

VIRGINIA COUNTIES

MONTH LAST LAST
SO 90 DAYS 180 DAYS LAST 365 DAYS
FAR TOTAL/DEP. TOTAL/DEP. TOTAL/DEP./ %


ACCOMACK VA 1.2 12.1 2.5 20.5 -.1 37.3 -3.9 -8
NORTHAMPTON VA 1.6 15.4 5.8 21.2 1.3 39.2 -1.4 -2


MARYLAND COUNTIES

MONTH LAST LAST
SO 90 DAYS 180 DAYS LAST 365 DAYS
FAR TOTAL/DEP. TOTAL/DEP. TOTAL/DEP./ %


DORCHESTER MD 1.6 17.5 7.0 23.2 1.0 39.4 -4.0 -8
SOMERSET MD 1.3 17.2 6.7 23.1 2.1 40.2 -1.2 -2
WICOMICO MD 1.4 20.5 9.3 24.9 2.1 42.2 -2.1 -4
WORCESTER MD 1.3 14.2 3.2 20.5 -2.0 38.6 -5.6 -12

MOST RECENT LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION & TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM
NWS:


THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK COVERING THE PERIOD NOV 17 THROUGH NOV 21:

PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE

MARYLAND NEAR NORMAL NEAR NORMAL
VIRGINIA NEAR NORMAL NEAR NORMAL
NORTH CAROLINA NEAR NORMAL NEAR NORMAL

30 DAY OUTLOOK THROUGH NOV:

PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE

MARYLAND NORMAL NORMAL
VIRGINIA NORMAL NORMAL
NORTH CAROLINA NORMAL NORMAL

90 DAY OUTLOOK THROUGH JAN 2003:

PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE

MARYLAND NORMAL NORMAL
VIRGINIA NORMAL NORMAL
NORTH CAROLINA NORMAL NORMAL

KEITH LYNCH
SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WAKEFIELD VIRGINIA