avp bufkit sounding

9-hr Eta BUFKIT sounding at AVP valid 5/12 21 UTC.

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Eta forecast soundings indicated a classic flash flood environment over northeast Pennsylvania. A weak low-level jet (speed around 20 kts) was indicated, with very weak, lightly shear flow above. Moderate instability was in place, with long, skinny CAPES. However, not all of the parameters were ideal for flash flooding. The warm cloud depth was not particularly high, only around 7000 feet. Precipitable water values were around 1.25 inches, about 150 percent of normal for mid-May but still below the environmental saturation thickness value (which was nearly 1.9 inches, based on 500 mb heights of 585 dm).

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