• Mid-level flow across the twin tiers was moderately strong from the west.

  • A large-scale west-east frontal boundary was located just north of the twin tiers, however a series of more subtle boundaries were located over northern Pennsylvania and southern New York.

  • The BUF sounding indicated a moderately strong mid-level flow, and some dry air aloft.

  • Instability was forecast to be moderately high across central Pa, but fairly weak across southern NY.

  • Shear across the twin tiers was adequate for organized severe weather, CAPE was marginal.

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