Summary of the WRF forecast

  • The surface low tracked to a position near Cape Cod during the early morning hours of the 1st; similar to the GFS forecast and much farther east than the NAM forecast.

  • The similarity between the WRF and GFS (at least regarding storm track) could imply that the GFS forecast had a better chance of verifying. (Note that the "off-shore" solution of the GFS/WRF was also supported by the ECMWF forecast (not shown).

  • Despite the eastern track, the WRF indicated significant precipitation extending far to the west of the storm track, across our area.

  • No intense banding was indicated across our area by the reflectivity product.

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