Final Summary

  • Significant differences were noted in the two primary operational models (the NAM and GFS) with this event, within 24 hours of the onset of heavy snow in northeast Pennsylvania and central New York.

  • Forecasts from other models (ie. WRF, ECMWF) favored the positioning of the GFS with the large-scale features.

  • The GFS turned out to have a better forecast on the positioning of the large-scale features with this event.

  • However… the best QPF forecast in our cwa was a compromise between the GFS and NAM.

  • Subtle aspects of the shape of the mid-level flow associated with this storm played a critical role in determining the positioning and intensity of mid-level divergence patterns, which played a critical role in determining the location and intensity of vertical motion and precipitation patterns.

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