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22/00 UTC Eta 700 mb frontogenesis and 850 mb wind forecasts valid 23/00 UTC.
One reason for more QPF farther north with the Eta model forecast may have been the response of the model's wind field to the frontogenesis. This slide shows the Eta forecast of 700 mb frontogenesis and 850 mb wind speed, both valid at 06 UTC. A maximum of frontogenesis extends from northern New England west toward Lake Ontario. The lower branch of the circulation associated with the frontogenesis is indicated by a 50 kt southeast flow at 850 mb across New Jersey and southern New York.