Can We Anticipate These ?
High resolution MM5 in '96 and the Eta / Eta-12 this year did provide some clues
If the larger-scale factors (deep moisture/instability, low shear, and potential synoptic enhancement) are in place, it's worth an fgen cross-section
Look for enhanced low-level fgen (950-900 mb) and then see how persistent such a feature is
Interestingly, the Eta-12 fgen fields were too noisy, while the Eta-40's were better
Some forecast tips.