Main surface front was forecast to remain well north of the forecast area.
However, a series of surface pressure troughs was forecast to move across the area.
Strongest shear was over northern NY, largest CAPE was over Pa.
An axis of large 850-700 mb theta-e lapse rates was forecast across southern NY / northern Pa.
Shear across the southern tier of New York was concentrated in the lowest 3 km of the atmosphere – above 3 km the flow was uni-directional with speeds of 35 to 40 kts.