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Probability of storm total precipitation greater than 0.50 inches from the 03z / 05z SREF


The data on this slide shows SREF forecasts of the probability of greater than 0.50 inches of precipitation through 12 UTC on the 19th (event total precipitation). The 03z SREF run indicated less than a 20 percent chance of 0.50 inches over northeast Pennsylvania. The 15z run indicated around a 20 percent chance. Given that higher elevation snow amounts approached a foot in northeast Pa, it seems reasonable to conclude that these forecasts were much too conservative.
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0300 UTC 18-Nov-2007 Run

1500 UTC 18-Nov-2007 Run

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