Probability of storm total precipitation greater than 0.50 inches from the 03z / 05z SREF
The data on this slide shows SREF forecasts of the probability of greater than 0.50 inches of precipitation
through 12 UTC on the 19th (event total precipitation). The 03z SREF run indicated less than a 20 percent
chance of 0.50 inches over northeast Pennsylvania. The 15z run indicated around a 20 percent chance. Given
that higher elevation snow amounts approached a foot in northeast Pa, it seems reasonable to conclude that
these forecasts were much too conservative.