FXUS61 KALY 112315 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 714 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLEASANTLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...AND COOL NIGHTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE REGION...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 40S OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S FOR THE NORTHEAST HALF WHERE ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE REMAINING POCKET OF COOL AIR RETREATS TO THE EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL TRY TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE TO PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THAT PERIOD... RATHER THAN CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY AS MID LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM. HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOW OR MID 40S...AND MID OR UPPER 40S ON MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERALLY WENT WITH GMOS. GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR DRY WEATHER WILL BE AT VERY START OF EXTENDED PERIOD. OUR NEIGHBORING CANADIANS TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE TWO SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH DURING THEIR ELECTIONS ON TUESDAY...ONE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH COMES THROUGH OUR AREA AS A RELATIVELY DRY FRONT LATE THU...AND ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL PROBABLY BRING US SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TUE INTO WED. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD GIVES WAY TO THE FIRST COLD FRONT FRONT WHICH WILL SLIDE FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTH OF OUR CWA BY NOON WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED CHC SHRA TUE NGT...THEN AT LEAST SLGT CHC THRU REMAINDER OF PERIOD AS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS. THE SECOND COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH LATE THU...AND IS LESS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF RAPIDLY DRY UP THE PRECIP AREA AS IT APPROACHES WITH THIS FRONT. NEITHER MODEL AFFORDS ANYTHING APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP BEYOND THAT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY FRI TRACKS SOUTHEAST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LEAVE US LARGELY UNAFFECTED. MEX TEMPS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD..PARTICULARLY THE HIGHS. BUT AS USUAL...IT'S TOO WARM FOR THE LOWS...MAINLY NIGHTS 4 AND 5. GMOS HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER THIS EVENING...SO WILL MENTION SOME BR AND ASSOC MVFR AT KPOU STARTING AROUND 07Z...AND MVFR AT KGFL AROUND 05Z WITH OCCASIONAL IFR COMMENCING AROUND 08Z. WILL NOT MENTION ANY RESTRICTIONS AT KALB AT THIS TIME. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY BY AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM AS SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... MON-TUE...MVFR-IFR FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR...NO SIG WX. TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR...CHC MVFR -SHRA. THU...VFR. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THROUGH MONDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 35 AND 50 PERCENT...AND NIGHTTIME VALUES BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT WITH HEAVY DEW OR POSSIBLY FROST. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE AT NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR OCTOBER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS NOT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GJM NEAR TERM...GJM SHORT TERM...GJM LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...JPV FIRE WEATHER...GJM HYDROLOGY...GJM