FXUS61 KALY 041731 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 131 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009 .SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY GIVING US A DRY DAY...BUT THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA...BUT MAINLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW IS HELPING ADVECT SOME MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN THE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE HELPING SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TO SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE. STILL...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND 1.5 SD BELOW NORMAL...SUGGESTS THAT WITH MAXIMUM SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES. SO WITH CLOUD COVER...DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. WORDED SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN SOME AREAS...REPLACING SHOWER WORDING AS TO NOT OVERSTATE THE RAIN CHANCES. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. PREV AFD BELOW... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY FOR EARLY JULY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80 WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PCPN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY AND CAPES VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT AND H10-H8 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EITHER VERY WEAK OR LACKING ALL TOGETHER. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH 12Z AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BEST LIS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUESDAY AND SB CAPES GENERALLY 400-1000 J/KG OFF NAM WITH A FEW POCKETS OVER 1500 J/KG ACROSS SE PORTION OF FA. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT OF HAIL...BUT WITH WBZ HEIGHTS MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JULY WITH A RANGE OF 5.5 TO 8 KFT ACROSS FA AT 00Z TUESDAY WOULD EXPECT MOST OF HAIL TO BE SMALL. TOO FAR INTO THE FUTURE TO PUT ENHANCED WORDING IN GRIDS BUT WILL MAKE MENTION IN HWO OF SMALL HAIL THREAT. H8 WINDS VERY LIGHT 5 TO 15 KTS...H5 WINDS ONLY 20-35 KTS AND 300 MB JET SE OF FA LEAVING FA IN WRONG QUAD (LR)OF EXITING JET...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WIND THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING INTO TUESDAY EVENING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY STARTING THURSDAY...AND WITH IT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE A BIT COOL TUESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW 70S TO THE LOW 80S WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY. IT WILL THEN BECOME A BIT ON THE SULTRY SIDE WITH LOWS 55 TO 65 THURSDAY NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 ON FRIDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S BY MID AFTERNOON AND HEAT INDEXES 90 TO 95 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SMALLER CLOUD CELLS AND BIGGER GAPS AT POU. RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS STAYING WELL N OF GFL. HAVE COVERED FIRST FEW HOURS THERE WITH A VCSH. SKIES WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...WITH BARELY MVFR FOG/HAZE A POSSIBILITY AT ALL THREE AIRPORTS...WITH SOME HAZE FROM FIREWORKS MIXED IN AS WINDS QUICKLY CALM DOWN AFTER SUNDOWN. MARGINAL SHEAR IS INDICATED THROUGH 2000 FEET AT BOTH GFL AND ALB...BUT NOT AT POU. THIS MIXES OUT AGAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. ONE OR TWO SCT FAIR WEATHER CU/SC LAYERS ARE ALL THAT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN PM...VFR...NO WX. MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM. WED...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR FOG. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY GIVING US A DRY DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RISE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT AND WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE DECREASING CLOUDS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. RIVERS HAVE RECEDED FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK. THE STORMS YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT DID NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL SO THEY HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS AVIATION...ELH