FXUS61 KBTV 090001 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 801 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND SMALL HAIL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 749 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE FEW TSTMS THAT FORMED THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURF COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OHIO/WESTERN PENN AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THIS EVENING. MOST OF THIS ACTION WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL AFT 12Z EXCEPT FOR SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY WHERE SHRA/TSRA COULD BEGIN BY DAYBREAK. OVERALL A MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. DP TEMPS ARE AROUND 70 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...SO IT WILL BE A VERY UNCOMFORTABLE NIGHT...BUT RELIEVE IS ON THE WAY. SOUTH GRADIENT LOOKS STRONGER THEN LAST NIGHT SO DENSE FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE IN THE CHAMPLAIN/CT VALLEYS BUT THINK PATCHY FOG WILL STILL DEVELOP IN INTERIOR VT VALLEYS WHERE IT WILL DECOUPLE. VIS WILL STILL BE RESTRICTED AT ALL AREAS DUE TO HAZY AIRMASS IN PLACE. OVERALL WARM MUGGY NIGHT WITH THREAT OF SHRA/TSTMS INCREASING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE ANALYSIS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS OVER THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING ON. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE AND COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO GENERATING EVEN MORE CAPE. IN ADDITION...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL KEEP CAPE VALUES AT BAY. WHAT REALLY MAKES THE DIFFERENCE ON WEDNESDAY IS THE INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE. WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL. MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND DAMAGE DUE TO UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY TO ALSO HELP ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND THUS END THE THREAT FOR STORMS BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE IN FOR TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH LESS HUMIDITY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 348 PM EDT TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY AND BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY...THEN SETTLE OFF THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY WEAK. HAVE INCLUDED JUST A CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE STEADILY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH SOME INSTABILITY ON SSW WINDS THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEVELOPMENT OF TRW ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS WEAKER AND SMALLER SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA THAT TIME. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...SOME HAZE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH PREVAILING VSBYS 5 TO 6 MILES. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS PM. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF CB IN TAFS FOR THIS PM TO INDICATE POSSIBLE CONVECTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS AFTER 08Z WED FOR KMSS/KSLK WITH APRCH OF CDFNT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KTS KMSS/KSLK/KBTV DURING THE PM. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND LOCATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... THE ASOS AT MASSENA (KMSS) IS INOPERATIVE...ONLY ALTIMETER IS BEING REPORTED. TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. IN ADDITION...THE MASSENA ASOS WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE FROM TUESDAY JULY 8 THROUGH JULY 17. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...DUMONT SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...JAN AVIATION...JAN/SLW EQUIPMENT...