FXUS61 KBTV 260837 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 337 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION ALL DAY FRIDAY RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE MORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...NEXT MONDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 337 AM EST THURSDAY...WK RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE EAST COAST...WEDGED BETWEEN FRNT OFFSHORE AND BROAD LOW CIRCULATING OVER GREAT LKS/S ONTARIO. THE SQUEEZE WILL BE PUT ON THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS SFC LOW ALONG FRNTL BOUNDARY WORKS NORTH AND LOW OVER GREAT LKS WORKS EAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN BREAK FOR CLD COVER PURPOSES AND WILL GO WITH MAINLY MCLDY SKIES AND EVEN A SL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OVER N NY. SOME LGT -RW SHOWING UP ON REGIONAL OBS AND THAT AREA OF MOISTURE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE LOW DURING THE DAY...FAIRLY CLOSE TO N NY. MDLS HAVE DIFFERED ALL WEEK ON PLACEMENT OF LOW OFF THE COAST BY TNGT...AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT GREAT LKS LOW INTERACTS WITH IT. COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BECM PRIMARY WX MAKER FOR THE CWA GOING INTO THE OVERNGT. TEMPS ABV FREEZING WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO START AS RAIN FOR ALL AREAS...BUT EXPECT TO INCR FROM SE TO NW AS COASTAL LOW CIRCULATION DRAGS ATLANTIC MOISTURE N AND W INTO THE NORTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 337 AM EST THURSDAY...MAIN WX FOR THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR DURING THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. COASTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM S NEW ENG ALONG COAST INTO MAINE AND INTO SE QUEBEC BY FRI NGT. BROAD EXPANSE OF RAIN WILL LIFT INTO THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. MDL QPF COULD REACH NEAR AN INCH IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN E VT BASED ON LOW TRACK. FIRST CONCERN FOR THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE FRI NGT AS SFC LOW TRAVERSES INTO SE QUEBEC. THIS WILL SHIFT WIND FLOW FROM ESE TO MORE NNW. THIS IN TURN WILL DRAG IN CD AIR ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM AND CHANGE OVER RAIN TO SNOW...MAINLY OVER HIR TRRN. W/ COPIOUS ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED ON THIS WRAP AROUND FLOW...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE EFFECTS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NC NE VT AS WELL AS THE DACKS FRI NGT INTO SAT. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUM AMTS OF MAINLY 3-6 INCHES FOR NW AREAS...TAPERING DOWN TO NEAR NOTHING IN VALLEY LOCALES ALTHOUGH VALLEYS MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SAT MORN. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUANCE OF WINTER WX PRODUCT AS EVENT TOTALS WOULD NOT BE REACHED TIL CLOSE TO 4TH PERIOD. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY 2ND CONCERN FOR THE CWA IN THE FORM OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY REACH 30-40 MPH OVERNGT INTO SAT MORN. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS AS WELL AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY...WITH HIR ELEV SEEING CHANCE FOR LGT ACCUM BFR ENDING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 337 AM EST THURSDAY...LGT -SW EXPECTED TO WANE FOR PORTIONS OF CWA SAT NGT AS SLOW MVG SYSTEM EXITS EAST W/ RIDGE MVG E FOR SUN MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ABATE FROM W TO E AS WELL TOWARDS SUN MORN. A COUPLE MORE LOWS WILL AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE LATE SUNDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. WK HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A FRNTL BOUNDARY MONDAY. FRNT POSITIONED OVER S NEW ENGLAND AND LOW MEANDERING ACROSS IT WILL HIGHLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES MORE FOR SOUTHERN ZONES. CD AIR AHEAD OF PRECIP WILL ALLOW FOR -SW TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY MON NGT/TUES MORNING. WEAKENING RETURN NW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR -SW TO TAPER OFF BY LATE TUESDAY W/ RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE CWA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME LOCAL POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 02Z FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED IFR IN DEVELOPING HEAVY...COLD RAIN. FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR IN RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE MTNS. SATURDAY...IFR IN SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE...CHANGING TO SNOW BY EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS. SUNDAY...BECMG VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS DIMINISHING. MONDAY...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 1235 PM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SAW A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW BACK IN MID OCTOBER...THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAS NOT YET HAD ITS FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON. FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW HAPPENS NOVEMBER 6TH. SO WHERE DOES THIS LATE 1ST MEASURABLE SNOW COMPARE TO THE RECORD BOOKS? HERE ARE THE 10 LATEST FIRST SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH THE SEASONAL TOTAL SNOW THAT FOLLOWED. SEASON TOTAL RANK DATE SNOWFALL (INCHES) 1. 12/7/1937 45.1 2. 12/5/1915 54.4 3. 12/1/1948 40.7 4. 11/30/1918 69.6 5. 11/30/1953 83.6 6. 11/30/1960 51.6 7. 11/28/1913 56.5 8. 11/27/1941 57.7 9. 11/26/1982 80.5 10. 11/25/1957 94.9 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JN NEAR TERM...JN SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...WGH/NEILES CLIMATE...BTV