FXUS61 KBTV 081749 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1249 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1040 AM EST SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED GOING FORECAST TO ADJUST CLD COVER WORDING AND HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY. LATEST VIS SAT PIC SHOWS CLD COVER FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED SO REWORDED TO HAVE SUNNY SKIES VERSUS MSUNNY. W/ LACK OF CLD COVER TEMPS HAVE SHOT UP VERY QUICKLY W/ SOME SPOTS GOING ABV ALREADY FORECASTED NUMBERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED FOR ALL ZONES TO HAVE AROUND 60F/LOW 60S. REST OF FORECAST IN GD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND AS OF 3AM. PLENTY OF CLEARING NOTED THOUGH ON IR SATELLITE UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING FOR PARTY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BECOMING CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 20S ELSEWHERE. ON MONDAY...850HPA TEMPS WARM TO +8-10C ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH SUNNY SKIES FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS WARMING INTO THE 60S. NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER...THUS HAVE TRENDED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH FEATURES AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT BELOW... && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF THE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE AT THIS TIME. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER PHASING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWRD ACROSS GRTLKS TUESDAY NIGHT AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS GULF STATES TUESDAY WHICH WILL BECOME ASSOCD WITH HURRICANE IDA. PLENTY OF MODEL DIFFERENCES RESULTING IN A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES. FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA GIVEN THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE FROM TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GRTLKS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM REMAINING FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT (ALTHOUGH IF ECMWF/GFS VERIFY...THESE POPS WOULD NEED TO BE RAISED AS EVENT NEARS). AS COLDER AIR IN LLVLS IS DRAWN SOUTH INTO FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT ON INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHRTWVS THEN OCCURS WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS WOULD OCCUR TOO FAR EAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON FORECAST AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ANTICIPATED. WINDS...GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE DURING MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AFT 14Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WITH CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SW SFC WINDS OF 15-25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECMG NW DURING MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND VFR FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY. PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW DURING THE WED THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS NOW APPEAR MORE LIKELY BASED ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...JN/LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...RJS AVIATION...BANACOS