FXUS61 KBOX 042030 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 430 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008 .SYNOPSIS... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL STILL BE THE MORE THAN USUAL EPISODES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEMS CROSSING NEW ENGLAND...RUNNING INTO THE PERSISTENT LARGE AND STATIONARY WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SNE BUT A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS COASTAL CT EXTENDING INTO SW RI ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS ALSO WHERE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S HELPING TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE. THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THINK MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST IN ELEVATED KI/TT AXIS AND GFS SHOWING AREA OF LOW 50S TT MOVING THROUGH. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CT/RI AND SE MA THROUGH THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MUGGY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE A PULSE OF OMEGA MOVING NORTHWARD INTO REGION SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT OR SAT ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFRENCES. WE LEANED TOWARD GFS WHICH SHOWS 850 MB LOW AND ASSOCD LOW LEVEL JET RESULTING IN AREA OF CONVERGENCE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS COASTAL SNE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. WE KEPT POPS IN CHC RANGE SOUTH OF THE PIKE THROUGH TONIGHT...INCREASING TO LIKELY NEAR THE COAST ON SAT AS IT APPEARS BULK OF CONVERGENCE/LIFT WILL OCCUR SAT MORNING. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. FURTHER NORTH...WE WILL HAVE JUST CHC POPS BUT IT MAY STAY DRY NORTH OF ROUTE 2 REGION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ECMWF/UKMET DO BRING QPF NORTHWARD INTO NH BUT WENT DRY SW NH FOR NOW. LATER FCSTS MAY NEED REFINEMENT. MOCLDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SAT WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LIKE TODAY. WARMEST TEMPS SAT SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH WITH READINGS NEAR 80...BUT UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE TEMPS SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOWER 70S DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. FCST CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPS IS LOW. IT APPEARS SFC FRONT AND ASSOCD DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL TRY TO MOVE BACK NORTHARD INTO REGION LATE SAT NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW. FOLLOWED MAV GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS CHC POPS SOUTH OF ROUTE 2 LATE SAT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AT THE VERY LEAST THERE WILL BE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IF NOT BEYOND. THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SUNDAY HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT. THE INSTABILITY JUST DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE THERE IN ANY OF THE MODELS. THE SREF DOES INDICATE A LOW PROBABILITY OF OVER 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BUT THAT IS THE MOST OF ANY MODEL. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THAT PWAT VALUES ARE STILL OVER 1.5 TIMES THE NORM. HIGHS WILL CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 70. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE AT THE VERY LEAST THERE WILL BE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER SUNDAY/S HIGHS BRINGING TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S. TUESDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH 2M TEMPS UP AROUND 90F AND 850MB TEMPS 17-18C. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP. SO...EVEN THOUGH TUESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. OVERNIGHT BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. SOMETIME AROUND MID WEEK...THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE PREDICTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHEN THIS DOES MOVE THROUGH... THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WE/LL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GO ALONG WITH IT. EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN REMAINS TO BE SEEN. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WE COULD HAVE ONE OR TWO MORE HOT DAYS BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL OFF WITH THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL CT TIED TO CLEARING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS HAVE POPPED IN SOUTHERN CT AND MAY TRY TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN RI. STABILITY INDICES ARE LESS FAVORABLE E OF CT...SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THEY DO SO. RISK OF A LIGHT SHOWER AROUND PVD AND POSSIBLE THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT RISK OF THUNDER AROUND THE TAF SITES IS SMALL. NIGHTTIME AND A CONTINUING EAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT A REDEVELOPING STRATUS LAYER AT BOS-PVD-FMH-HYA-ACK. EAST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY EVEN FOG WORCESTER AIRPORT AND ITS HILLTOP. EXPECT IFR-LIFR IN THESE AREAS AND POSSIBLY BDL-BAF. MHT VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IN FOG LATE NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND RAIN INTO BDL-PVD AND FMH-HYA-ACK. WILL HAVE IFR IN RAIN AREAS AND MVFR CIGS BOS-ORH-BDL. MHT IS NORTH OF THE MOIST FLOW AND SO WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SAT NIGHT...CONDITIONS LIKELY LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CONDITIONS DEGRADING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AT TIMES. TUESDAY...VFR. WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IF THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AS WELL AS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR. OTHERWISE...VFR LIKELY. && .MARINE... SW SWELL IS SUBSIDING WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS REPORTING SEAS DOWN TO 5 FT AND 4 FT AT MVCO. WE CONTD SCA FOR OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS UNTIL 6 PM FOR SEAS UP TO 5 FT. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NE LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. VSBY RESTRICTION IN FOG EXPECTED AND THERE COULD BE A TSTM OR 2 LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SAT...FAST MOVING LLJ ASSOCD WITH 850 MB CIRCUALTION MAY BRING A BRIEF G20 KTS TO OUTER WATERS...OTHERWISE EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME WESTERLY AFTER SFC WAVE PASSES BY. SEAS 2-4 FT OVER OPEN WATERS. PATCHY FOG MAY PERSIST AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW TSTMS OVER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT OVER OPEN WATERS. MORE FOG LIKELY. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY...SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT FOG MAY AGAIN REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 NM ALONG THE COAST. MONDAY...SEAS MAY REACH SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO PROMPT THE RETURN OF AN ABOVE NORMAL RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDSAY...SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. ABOVE NORMAL RIP CURRENT RISK MAY ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL BEACHES. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254- 255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...RLG AVIATION...WTB/RLG MARINE...KJC/RLG