FXUS61 KOKX 260809 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 309 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY...THEN IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN HEAD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME REGION THIS WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL TAKE AIM ON THE AREA BY EARLY/MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THE FIRST AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA AND PRETTY MUCH TAPERED OFF. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NJ. WILL LOOK FOR THAT AREA TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WILL DROP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGHOUT...AS ANY PRECIP FROM THIS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN H95 INVERSION AND A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE AND FOG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE WATER...UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FURTHER INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... THANKSGIVING DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY MINUS THE PRECIP. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BLO A LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST PLACES. PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE AFTN...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO DOMINATE AS A COASTAL LOW TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THU AFTN...LOW TO MID 50S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SE STATES FROM THE PLAINS CREATING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE STORM WILL TRACK NNE...APPROACHING CAPE COD BY FRI MORNING. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE DURING THE AFTN...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THU NIGHT. SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL HELP TO STEER THE COASTAL LOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE COASTAL LOW QUICKLY INTENSIFIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SLOWER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND WE WILL MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR A WIND ADVISORY WITH FURTHER MODEL RUNS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS FOR INLAND SECTIONS AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT BY THIS TIME THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IS SMALL. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA...OWING PRIMARILY TO THE DIFFERENCES ON HOW THEY HANDLE ENERGY FROM AN H5 TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A TREND HOWEVER TOWARDS A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GFS HAS SPED UP THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHILE THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF IS SLOWER. WENT IN BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS WITH THE IDEA THAT THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS FOR NOW DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT BEST OVERALL CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE APPEARS TO BE RAIN...BUT SHOULD THERE BE ANY INSTABILITY ALOFT TRIGGERING PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING...SOME OF NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM WITH DRY WEATHER. WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY CONSIDERING DECENT COLD ADVECTION...AS WELL AS FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE WOULD LIMIT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER IN SPITE OF RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM ME INTO THE METRO AT 8Z. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE SC COAST. THE LOW WILL TRACK NWD TODAY AND REACH A POINT NEAR CAPE COD FRI MRNG. IFR AND OCNL LIFR THRU 16-17Z THU WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE. WINDS LGT NE/VRB AOB 6KT. MODEL TRENDS INCREASINGLY PESSIMISTIC FOR IMPROVEMENT ABV MVFR THIS AFTN. FCST HAS BEEN TRENDED BLW VFR. WINDS REMAIN LGT NE. RA FROM THE LOW BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TNGT. BEST CHC FOR MDT PCPN AFT 00Z. IFR CIGS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WITH THE TIMING TO BE REFINED IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FRI...WNW WINDS INCREASE TO 25-35KT IN THE AFTN AS LOW PRES RAPIDLY DEEPENS NE OF THE AREA. CIGS/VSBY IMPROVING TO VFR ESPECIALLY INVOF THE METRO. FRI NGT AND SAT...REMAINING WINDY. VFR. SUN...WINDS DIMINISH. DEVELOPING WRMFNT MAY RESULT IN MVFR. && .MARINE... HAVE KEPT THE SCA UP ON THE OCEAN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SEAS REMAINING 4-5 FT IN A SE SWELL. A DISCERNIBLE TREND HAS NOT BEEN ESTABLISHED AND DON'T HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT. EVE SHIFT CAN MONITOR AND PULL IT. SAME STORY CONTINUES THROUGH THU NIGHT...SWELLS COULD KEEP SEAS RIGHT AROUND 5 FT...BUT WILL LET MID SHIFT EXTEND IF THEY REMAIN UP TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND ONSHORE THROUGH THU...THEN BACK TO THE NW AND START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS A COASTAL STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. AS THE COASTAL STORM PASSES EAST THEN NORTHEAST...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WHILE THE STORM CONTINUES ITS INTENSIFICATION. WAVES WILL BUILD UP TO 9 FT ON THE OCEAN AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUND BEFORE COMING DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY FRIDAY...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON SATURDAY. THESE STRONG W WINDS WILL PUSH WATER OUT OF THE SOUND...HARBOR AND BAYS...AND COULD CAUSE LOW WATER PROBLEMS. CURRENT GFS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 2-3 FT BELOW ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS FRI NIGHT AND 3-4 FT ON SAT. THIS WOULD REQUIRE A LOW WATER ADVISORY...HOWEVER ITS TOO EARLY TO PUT UP AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED. GALES MAY LAST INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES...OTHERWISE SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL WATERS. SCA WOULD REMAIN ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS ON SUNDAY MAINLY DUE TO SEAS UP TO 5 FT. AFTER A PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUND. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...JMC MARINE... HYDROLOGY...