FXUS61 KOKX 041902
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
302 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS THIS EVENING...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRES AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...JUST
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RELAX...BUT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AWAY FROM THE CITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
OUTLYING LOCALES IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NORTHERN CT/PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND COULD DROP CLOSE TO 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES OVER THE TN VALLEY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES MON AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN ZONES...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH
AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A POSSIBLY MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH DURING THE DAY ON TUE...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ONCE
AGAIN.

HIGHS ON MON AND TUE WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING US LOWER-END POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER
TROF. DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...MORE NOTICEABLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A SW FLOW. SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AS WELL...BUT PROBABLY MITIGATED TO A DEGREE BY CLOUD COVER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR...WITH W-NW FLOW 10 TO 15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES.
AFTN CU SCT TO BKN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR.

WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO UNDER 10 KT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZES SUNDAY AT COASTAL AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON
MON...THEN A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH APPROACH. VFR THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MARINE...
W-NW FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING NEARLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS
EVENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON. WILL GENERALLY
EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...
THOUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

LONG TERM MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING ON MON COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS