FXUS61 KOKX 081742 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1242 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON TUESDAY AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT GETS ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TEMPERATURES RISING WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ON TAP. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A LIGHT W/SW FLOW WILL BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A LARGELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE DEEP-LAYERED WLY FLOW BRINGS WARM AIR FROM THE NATION/S MID SECTION EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH 85H TEMPS PLUS 10 DEG C MON-TUE. A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR MIXING UP TO 950 MB...BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO ECLIPSE THE 60 DEGREE MARK. FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED IN THE LATE TUE INTO WED TIME FRAME AS AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS CLEARLY A MORE AMPLIFIED TREND NOTED IN THE GLOBALS MODELS OVER THE LAST TWO CYCLES WHICH IS TAKING THE FORECAST DOWN A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE FOR THE MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN...MAINLY A POST-FRONTAL PCPN EVENT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT STALLS JUST EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANT LOW OF IDA GETS INFUSED WITH MID LATITUDE ENERGY AND DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TOO MANY VARIABLES IN PLAY HERE TO BE CONFIDENT IN THE FORECAST...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS WED INTO WED EVE BEFORE DRYING CONDITIONS OUT LATE WED NIGHT. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS...SO NOT COMPLETELY GOING TOWARD THE WET...STORMY SOLUTION OF THE 00Z GFS. THE 00Z ECMWF WHILE WEAKER INITIALLY...CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE MASS FIELDS OF THE GFS AND IS SLOWER WITH THE OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT. THUS...FUTURE SOLUTIONS BEAR WATCHING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRONG NE WINDS WED NIGHT WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THROUGH THU...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR. WEAK W-NW FLOW COULD GIVE WAY TO WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS. MAGNITUDE LESS THAN ABOUT 7 OR 8 KT THROUGHOUT. WINDS DECREASE TO CALM OR VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 21-23Z. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMES LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW 13-15Z MON. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS NOT ANTICIPATED. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THU... MON-TUE...VFR. TUE NIGHT...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH COLD FROPA. WED-THU...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO WED EVENING VIA SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INITIALLY...THEN FROM POSSIBLE OFFSHORE LOW. INCREASING N-NE WINDS AT NYC/COASTAL TERMINALS. && .MARINE... SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE IN WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THEREAFTER QUIET CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE MID WEEK PERIOD. AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WITH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT GALES WED NIGHT- THU...ESPECIALLY IF THE REMNANT POST-TROPICAL LOW FROM HURRICANE IDA MANAGES TO PHASE WITH MID- LATITUDE ENERGY AS SOME MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING. && .HYDROLOGY... A CDFNT AND LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$