FXUS61 KCAR 080724 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 224 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LGT...AT BEST SHWR ACTIVITY CROSSING MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA ELY THIS MORN. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD COMPLETELY MOVE E OF THE FA BY MID MORN. GFS 925-850 RH/CU TOOL INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR BKN-OVC SC TO LINGER ACROSS NW AND FAR NRN PTNS OF THE FA THIS MORN BEFORE INCREASING LLVL DOWNSLOPE AND SUBSIDENCE ERODES AND SCT'S THE DECK THIS AFT. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT AN ISSUE AS 25 TO 30 KT POTENTIAL AOA 925 MB MIXES DOWN WITH ANTICIPATED HTG TDY. SPEAKING OF HTG...HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN YESTERDAY INITIATING A WARMING TREND FOR THE FA SLATED TO CONT INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLR BY EVE...WITH WINDS STAYING UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT DECOUPLING OVR SPCLY NRN AND INITIALLY...SRN HIER TRRN PTNS OF THE FA. THIS IN ADDITION TO INCREASING HI/MID CLD CVR ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA LATE TNGT RESULTED IN UTILIZING SOME MODEL AND HI ENS TEMP DATA FOR ESTIMATING OVRNGT LOWS ACROSS THESE PTNS OF THE FA...WHILE WE KEPT CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE LOWS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE LIGHTER LATE NGT WINDS AND LESSER CLD CVR IS ANTICIPATED. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY AND STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STATE UP NEAR THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WARM AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FLOW INTO DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 60 IN SOME AREAS. LESS SURE HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL MAKE IT UP NORTH. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S IN MOST AREAS BUT COULD END UP WARMER IF THE FRONT NUDGES NORTH JUST A BIT QUICKER. THE FRONT WILL WORK BACK SOUTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTER A WEAK LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS TUESDAY BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD AS THE AIR DOES NOT GET ABRUPTLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN BIG DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE TROPICAL LOW WILL LIFT NORTH AND WHERE IT WILL REDEVELOP A FRONTAL LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE REDEVELOP... WHETHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC OR OVER THE MARITIMES...WILL BE TOO FAR EAST TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO MAINE. DUE TO THE STRUGGLES THE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING WITH THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM... AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE ALL CHANCES OF PRECIP SO STILL MENTION CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES AWAY OUT TO SEA. THIS SHOULD END THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND SOME SUNSHINE. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR XPCTD TDY THRU TNGT...XCPT PERHAPS BRIEFLY MVFR CLGS TIL MID MORN AT KCAR AND KPQI. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT THRU THU WITH SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS MON AND TUE...UNLESS A STORM SYSTEM OFFSHORE MOVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN OR SNOW TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: LATEST BUOY AND COASTAL RAINWISE SITE WIND OBS SUPPORT KEEPING THE SCA GOING THRU THE MORN HRS...EVEN ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS ZONE. DAY CREW CAN THEN MAKE A DECISION TO DROP THE INTRACOASTAL ZONE FROM THE ADV AND POSSIBLY DOWNGRADE SCA TO SCA FOR SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES FOR THE LATE MORN UPDATE. ALL SCA'S SHOULD BE LOWERED BY THE LATE AFT UPDATE AS BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FALL BELOW THRESHOLDS... WHICH TREND SHOULD CONT THRU THE OVRNGT. CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN APPROACH SCA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPING OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY BRING WIND AND HIGHER SEAS DURING MID WEEK IF IT NEARS THE WATERS. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...VJN MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER