FXUS61 KCAR 041532
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1132 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE MOVE SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH MONDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE RAFL AND CONVECTION POTENTIAL.

DECISION HERE WAS GO W/THE RUC AND SREF THROUGH THE MORNING W/THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND THEN TOOK A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND SREF FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

SFC LOW IS FCST TO LIFT ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY W/THE ASSOCD COLD
FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE BEST INSTABILITY SITUATED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON W/CAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG AT BEST AND LIS OF -3. SOME SHEAR IS NOTED FROM
0-6KM OF 15+ KTS W/WINDS BECMG MORE SSW IN THE BLYR. LACKING
INGREDIENT IS STG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ATTM...HIGHEST LAPSE
RATES FROM 700-500MBS ARE ABOUT 6.0 C/KM AND THIS LOOKS TO BE IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A GENERAL RISK
TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY SCATTERED TSTMS FOR THE DOWNEAST AND
ISOLD FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. WE HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF ENHANCED WORDING.

BEST PRECIP CHCS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AND THIS IS
HOW THINGS WERE DISTRIBUTED W/CATEGORICAL POPS IN THESE AREAS.
COLD FRONT IS FCST TO SLIDE TO THE EAST BY THE EVENING W/A
WESTERLY FLOW TO TAKE OVER TONIGHT AND SOME DRYING TO OCCUR FOR
THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL HANG ON
TO MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z. WE ARE EXPECTING SKIES TO
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS DUE TO
THE WESTERLY FLOW. 

12Z GUIDANCE (NAM) TEMPERATURES WERE LOADED W/SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE
DOWNEAST AREAS TO LOWER THE NUMBERS UP SOME DUE TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS. GMOS
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT WHERE THEY ARE FOR TONIGHT W/LOW TO MID 50S
BY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WITH
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. KBGR AND KBHB ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE CONDITIONS LIFT TO MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
VFR BY EVENING AS WSW WINDS TAKE OVER.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
ANY SHOWERS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MAIN ISSUE IS DENSE WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE WATERS ATTM
AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. VSBYS WILL IMPROVE
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS AND WINDS WILL VEER WSW.
WNAWAVE HANDLING THINGS ATTM FOR THE WAVE HEIGHTS. LATEST WIND
GRIDS DOING WELL AND ONLY TWEAKS WERE MADE.


SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MWALKER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/MWALKER
MARINE...HEWITT/MWALKER/DUDA