FXUS61 KCAR 240819 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 419 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... BUSY EARLY AM AS WARM FRONT OVER OUR WATERS TRIGGERING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. LOW-LEVELS REMAIN QUITE STABLE OVR THE WATERS BUT MID LAYER LAPSE RATES >6 C COMBINING W/ GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT TO KEEP THINGS INTERESTING... THIS WARM FRONT XPCTD TO LIFT NNE ACROSS THE FA TDY W/ THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOW AFFECTING OUR WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS TO LIFT NE AS WELL... THIS ACTIVITY MOVING RATHER RAPIDLY AND XPCT THINGS TO QUIET DOWN A BIT THIS AFTN INTO ERLY EVE AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. THEN ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING ACROSS ERN NYS AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS FRONT XPCTD TO ENTER OUR FAR WRN ZONES LATER TNGT AND THEN EXIT OUR FAR ERN ZNS FRI AFTN... VRY HVY RAINFALL NOW OCCURRING OVR WRN NEW ENGLAND AND ERN NYS AND W/ THE VRY MOIST SSERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS FOR OUR FA...SPCLY WRN AND NWRN ZONES WHERE TRRN ENHANCEMENT WILL BE A FACTOR. THESE ISSUES COVERED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BLO... && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE COMBINATION OF A SHORT WAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING FRIDAY WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A BRIEF BREAK CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ESP IN THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPE TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK BY MID WEEK AS THE TROF MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR/IFR CONDS XPCTD AT ALL TAF SITES ERLY TDY W/ THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE FA... SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER TDY INTO TNGT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THEN XPCT CONDS TO DETERIORATE AGAIN LATER TNGT W/ THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE W. WIDELY VARIABLE CONDS WILL PERSIST IN THE VRY UNSETTLED WX PTRN WHICH IS XPCTD TO DOMINATE INTO NXT WEEK... && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: STILL BELIEVE WNAWAVE GUIDANCE TOO AGGRESSIVE W/ SEAS... JUST SEVERAL DYS AGO GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE BY ERLY TDY AND SEAS STILL LESS THAN 4 FT ACROSS OUR WATERS... ESERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS ATTM BUT THAT WILL BECOME SSERLY TDY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NE OF THE WATERS. AS THIS OCCURS...SOME MXG IS POSSIBLE AND HAVE INCRSD SEAS ACCORDINGLY THO STILL PREFER TO HOLD SEAS BCK VS WNAWAVE GUIDANCE. ATTM...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN SCA AS STILL ONLY XPCT MARGINAL CONDS NXT 24 HRS BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY... SHORT TERM: HAVE CUT BACK FROM WNWAVE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SEAS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... HAVE HOISTED A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR W AND NW ZONES FOR TNGT AND FRI... CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS OUR SRN AREAS WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AM... THESE WILL ACT TO PRODUCE SOME BRIEFLY HVY RAINFALL BUT THE MAIN CONCERN COMES LATER TNGT INTO FRI W/ THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT XPCTD TO CROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A VERY MOIST SSERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND IS CURRENTLY CAUSING HVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD ISSUES FURTHER TO OUR W AND SW. MODELS SUGGEST BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE HVST RAINFALL ACROSS OUR TRRN ENHANCED AREAS OF WRN AND NWRN MAINE. CURRENT FFG GUIDANCE VALS FOR 12-24 HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS >3 INCHES AND OUR CURRENT FCST IS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES BUT SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND UPSTREAM HISTORY SUGGESTS THAT A WATCH IS THE PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION ATTM... && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-031. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...KHW SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...KHW MARINE...KHW/DUDA HYDROLOGY...KHW