FXUS61 KGYX 252009 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 309 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009 .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH MAINE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE MAINE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FOR TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS... FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE RULE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND FOG. USED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SO POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER LOTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH FOG SLOWLY LIFTING IN THE MORNING. COULD SEE SOME BRIGHTENING OF THE SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. USED THE COOLER MET FOR HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE DIGGING 500 MB CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT WILL MOVE UP THE COAST THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE A RAINY FRIDAY...AND WINDY SATURDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT AFFECT ULTIMATE SFC LOW INTENSITY...WHICH IN TURN COULD AFFECT TRACK OF SFC LOW...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND STRENGTH OF WINDS...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY A MARINE CONCERN. RAIN MOVES IN THUR NIGHT...PERHAPS IN SRN ZONES BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL OVERSPREAD ENTIRE CWA BY DAYBREAK...AND IT MAY BECOME HEAVY AROUND DAYBREAK AS WELL. BEST CHC FOR ANY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE FRI DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT ALL IN ALL FRI WILL BE RAINY DAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO NW AS LOW TRACKS FROM NR SW ME COAST NE LATE FRI...AND COULD SEE RAIN BEGIN TO TAPER LATE IN THE THE SW ZONES. FRI NIGHT SFC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD THE MARITIMES....AND WILL LKLY SEE SOME COLD CONVEYOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE CONTINUE PRECIP IN THE NR ZONES. ALSO...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN LATE IN THE DAY FRI...AND CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A CHANGE TO SNOW...AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FIRST...BUT THE SNOW LEVEL LOOKS TO LOWER TO ~1500 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ACCUMS OF SEVERAL INCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THAT SFC LOW IS SUFFICIENTLY WOUND UP OVER THE MARITIMES...AND STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND IT...SO SAT WILL BE A BREEZY AND COOLER DAY WITH UPSLOPE SHSN CONTINUING IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THE DOWNSLOPING ON THE COASTAL PLAINS AHOULD KEEP IT MAINLY DRY...WITH P/SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN SAT NIGHT...AND WILL SEE BOTH WINDS AND UPSLOPE SHSN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SFC HIGH BUILDS TO OUR S SUN AND SUN NIGHT...BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW ON MON. LOTS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE PUT CHC POPS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD...AS IT LOOKS LIKE A 500MB TROUGH SWINGS THRU...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE PINNING DOWN THE 2-3 PERIODS THAT SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY EFFECT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...SO THE CHC OF ANY PRECIP FALLING AS SNOW WILL BE GREATER...EVEN TO THE COAST...BUT IT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS. FOR THURSDAY CONDITION SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LKLY TO LOWER TO IFR LATE THU NIGHT...WITH EXTENDED IFR CONDS THRU THE DAY FRI...AND THEN A RETURN TO VFR SAT MORNING. SAT WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY NW WINDS...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH THESE WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED SAT-SUN NIGHT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...QUIET ON THE WATERS WITH WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER SEAS SLOW TO COME DOWN AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA IN CASCO BAY AND PENOBSCOT BAY TILL 6PM AND THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL 6AM THURSDAY. LONG TERM...STRONG SE FLOW AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SFC LOW MOVING UP THE NE COAST WILL LKLY PRODUCE SCA WINDS BY FRI MORNING...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRI. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR THE WATERS...BEFORE THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NE TOWARD THE MARITIMES. ONCE IT DOES STRONG W-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AND COULD PRODUCE GALES IN THIS TIMEFRAME. WIND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SAT NIGHT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151- 153. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152- 154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAWLEY NEAR TERM...HAWLEY SHORT TERM...HAWLEY LONG TERM...CEMPA AVIATION...CEMPA/HAWLEY MARINE...CEMPA/HAWLEY