FXUS61 KGYX 081400
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
900 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY...
MOVING OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED CWF TO DROP SCA HEADLINES OVER THE BAYS.
SOME CLOUDS NOTED ON SAT PIX OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS...SO
HAVE BACKED OFF TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THOSE LOCALES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
IS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND MOST SPOTS ARE WARMING
SLIGHTLY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE CWA AROUND NOON WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S SOUTH AS THERMAL PROFILES INCREASE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOME WEST LATER TODAY. THE WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE INLAND SOUTHERN
NH AND ME WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE 65 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE GFS AND NAM LOOKED TOO WARM TONIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...EVEN WITH THE WARM DIURNAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER ON THE WAY FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WARM AIR FLOODS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON RETURN
FLOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME WARMER LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE APPROACH 70 DEGREES EVEN WITH HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING
OR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH THIS BOUNDARY SO GENERALLY LOOKING
FOR VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE
FOR NORTHERN ZONES WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT
BEST.

COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY....STALLING OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL ENHANCE
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN HILL AT THIS POINT AS MODELS DIFFERING ON
INTENSITY AND TRACK OF WEAK SURFACE LOW AS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. NEW ECMWF SHOWING A SOLUTIONS SIMILAR TO
THE GFS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE GENERATING PRECIPITATION
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SATISFIED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
CONSIDERING CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY. RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN
ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO JUST SEE LIQUID PRECIP AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAIN WARM.

MODELS ALSO COMING INTO CONSENSUS ON GETTING REMNANTS OF IDA INTO
THE ACT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM IS SWEPT UP IN SAME SHORTWAVE
DIGGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM FORECAST
TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HEAD EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SPARING THE FORECAST AREA ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION. 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY WILL
SUPPRESS ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MODELS SIMILAR IN HOLDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE ON SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 6-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE
TO AOB 4KTS AFTER 00Z.

LONG TERM...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA OVER THE BAYS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SCA CONTINUES
OVER THE OUTER WATERS TIL 1 PM.

LONG TERM...GALES POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$