FXUS61 KGYX 200710
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
310 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
MONDAY AS EASTERN CANADIAN CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD BACK
TO THE VICINITY JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS LOW THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE WEEK.  AT SURFACE LEVEL...
BROAD AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER EASTERN SEABOARD WITH 
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.  GENERAL TREND
LOOKS TO BE FOR CRISTOBAL TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND IT'S TOUGH TO FOLLOW IT'S IDENTITY THROUGH
THE PROGS.  SAFE TO SAY THAT IT LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL-PALOOZA
OF MOISTURE ON TAP FOR THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TO MID-WEEK.   

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ON A LARGER SYNOPTIC SCALE...TODAY NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT THAN
YESTERDAY...AS SFC ONE SFC BOUNDARY SITS RIGHT OVER CWA...AND
ANOTHER REMAINS JUST N OF THE CWA....AL BENEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...WILL SEE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TODAY...BECOMING MORE
SIGNIFICANT TONIGHT. AGAIN WILL SEE A GENERALLY SRY MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FOG DISSIPATING BY A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. WILL LKLY
SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-HI CLOUDS AS WELL. STILL ENOUGH BREAKS
TO GET TEMPS TEMPS INTO THE 80S ACROSS SRN HALF OF NH AND SW-
CENTRAL ME...WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE SOME INSTABILITY...AND
WE SHOULD CONVECTION BEGIN TO FIRE UP ALONG THAT BOUNDARY BY LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY. AD FOR SVR THREAT...VERTICAL WIND PROFILE LOOKS
LIKE IT COULD SUPPORT SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN FAIRLY STEEP...SO STRONG DOWNDRAFTS A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY THOUGH...SO
INSTABILITY NOT AS GOOD AND MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. ALSO
WILL SEE INCREASING PWATS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL INCREASE LATE.  

BY AFTERNOON...500MB TROUGH NW OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL START TO
SWING DOWN TO THE SE AND START TO DEEPEN...WHICH SHOULD START TO
TRANSLATE THAT BOUNDARY NWD ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO...WILL BEGIN TO
SEE SOME MID-LVL THERMAL CIRCULATIONS START TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY N OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL HELP TO FOCUS
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LATER IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
SOME CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT....GIVEN
CLOSING OFF MID LVL SYSTEM...INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN...AND GOOD THERMAL FORCING....PRODUCING A DEEP WARM LYR.  RIGHT
NOW...FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NRN HALF OF
CWA...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE TO SEE WHERE BEST CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. STILL...COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT IN SOME
SPOTS /PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER IN SPOTS/...AND THAT WOULD CAUSE SOME
FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. WILL HOLD OFF ANY WATCH
ATTM...HOWEVER...AS I DO NOT THINK THIS WILL BE A REGION WIDE
EVENT...AND WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK. HOWEVER...WILL
MENTION HVY RAIN IN ZONES/GRIDS/HWO. LKLY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT LOOK GOOD GIVEN THE MID LVL THERMAL FORCING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND OVERNIGHT MUGGY/FOGGY
CONDITIONS. HOW TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL PLAYS INTO THE MIX WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE OUTCOME. OFFICIAL TRACK CONTINUES TO KEEP
ITS CENTER OUTSIDE THE 40/70 LAT/LON INTERSECTION ON
TUESDAY...THEN SWEEPING IT TO NORTHERN NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT.
EVEN WITH THAT TRACK...WE STILL KEEP HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
AND ANY RAIN/ SHOWERS SHOULD BE GULLY-WASHER CLASS EVENTS.
YESTERDAY'S 12Z MEX GUIDANCE SHOWS DEWPOINTS DROPPING BELOW 60 ON
TUESDAY...BUT CONSIDERING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LOOKS LIKE
THEY'RE DRYING THINGS OUT TOO MUCH TOO EARLY. LOOKS LIKE LATER IN
THE WORK WEEK WE MIGHT GET INTO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW...BUT THAT
LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AT LEAST ACCORDING TO CURRENT SOLUTIONS
WHICH HOLD OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING TIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR/VLFIR FOG AT KCON/KLEB AND MVFR FOG ELSEWHERE
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...THEN VFR INTO EARLY AFT BEFORE SCT
SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOP FROM W TO E. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA/FOG
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...DAYTIME VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR IN HAZE/SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS...LOWERING TO OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...LOCALLY LIFR ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...IN
FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL SEE INCREASING
WINDS/SEAS IN THE OUTER WATERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...MINIMAL SCA'S ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR SEAS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CEMPA 
SHORT TERM...CEMPA 
AVIATION...CEMPA 
MARINE...CEMPA