LAKE EFFECT STORM "DOVE"

March 3 - 5, 2002

Lake Flake Scale: *** 3 Flakes

Maximum Snowfall: Lk. Erie: 23" (Arkwright); Lk. Ontario:14" (N.Osceola).
Duration: 42 Hours +/-
Prime Feature: Unseasonal nature, strong intensity, westerly flow.

After a long absence of significant lake effect due to the mildest winter in 70 years, Mother Nature surprised us with a significant late season lake effect storm. This was the first March storm on record off Lake Erie...as the unusually mild winter has kept the lake ice free for only the fourth time in 75 years. The coldest air of the season swept into western and central New York on Sunday March 3, after the passage of a sharp cold front following a deep storm which passed over Lake Huron and central Ontario.

The event featured extreme instability with -20C 850 mb air and little or no shear..at least off Lake Erie. Snow showers and squalls began Sunday evening (3^rd) off Lake Erie and focused on the southern tier counties with overnight accumulations of a foot or more from near Erie, PA across central and northern Chautauqua county to Perrysburg in northwest Cattaraugus county. The six-inch amounts extended inland to southwest Wyoming and northern Allegany counties. The band held together through most of the daylight hours on Monday (4^th) at least close to the lake...while popcorn snow showers developed inland as the stronger March sun created increasing instability. The band weakened a bit during the late afternoon before consolidating and intensifying into a strong single band during the evening as it drifted north up into central Erie County (Buffalo’s "South Towns")...but did not extend inland too far as the winds weakened. 6-14" fell over south suburban areas from Hamburg to Orchard Park to West Seneca between 9 pm on Monday and 6 Am on Tuesday (5^th). There was a sharp cutoff from the 400 Highway in West Seneca west to Lackawanna as nothing fell in Buffalo and Cheektowaga. Winds backed during Tuesday morning and the band finally moved north across Buffalo and the North Towns, but increasing shear and warming temperatures aloft broke up the band by midday with only 2-3 inches falling.

The Lake Ontario activity was a bit more disorganized at first and mainly focused on Monday evening when a strong single band developed and extended from Oswego to North Osceola, This band meandered little...so areas within the band got about a foot, while areas ten miles on either side got less than 3 inches. The band did not extend too far east as the Black river valley got almost nothing. It did drift down into northern Cayuga county for a time.The activity weakened during Tuesday afternoon due to increasing shear and warming aloft.

Snowfall totals for the entire event ranged up to 20-23 inches over the ridges from Sherman to Perrysburg and even a foot along the lakeshore from Dunkirk to Erie. 6 to 14 inches fell just south of Buffalo. East of Lake Ontario, as mentioned, about a foot fell in a narrow band from Oswego to the southwest Tug Hill.

Overall...the event was out of season and fairly significant. It was intense enough to close the Thruway for a time and affected the heavily populated southern suburbs of Buffalo. ..so it earns a rating of (***) three stars.

Here are some representative amounts....

Off Lake Erie...

-Arkwright...23 inches
-Sherman.....22 inches
-Perrysburg..21 inches
-S. Dayton... 14 inches
-Hamburg.....14 inches
-Dunkirk...... 12 inches
-Sinclairville. 12 inches
-Erie PA....... 11 inches
-Westfield.... 10 inches
-W. Seneca... 10 inches
-Warsaw....... 9 inches
-Orchard Park. 8 inches
-Franklinville 7 inches
-Colden....... 7 inches
-Angelica..... 6 inches
-Jamestown... 5 inches
-Olean.......... 4 inches
-Buffalo.... 2 to 3 inches

Off Lake Ontario...

-N. Osceola.... 14 inches
-Highmarket... 12 inches
-Oswego......... 11 inches
-W. Monroe..... 6 inches
-Hannibal........ 6 inches
-Barnes Corners. 3 inches
-Syracuse....... 2 inches