LAKE EFFECT STORM CHEROKEE
Tues-Fri. December 21-24, 1999
STORM SUMMARY
The season’s first major and lengthy Lake Effect episode began late on Tuesday Dec. 21 following a cold frontal passage. The activity initially was fairly weak through midday Wednesday as the capping inversion was very low, in the 4000 to 5000 foot range, and temperatures were only marginally cold enough. The westerly flow off both lakes brought up to 6" in the vicinity of Dunkirk and a bit more along the Jefferson-Oswego county line on the 21st.
East of Lake Erie...The inversion level rose Wednesday afternoon ahead of an approaching trof...and this allowed the lake activity to intensify. Snow fell at the rate on 2"/hour along the Lake Erie shore near Angola in the early evening. The band drifted northward across the Buffalo South Towns and dropped close to a foot overnight...but the northern edge was fairly sharp...with just an inch or two in the city of Buffalo and less across the northern suburbs by Thursday morning. The activity then shifted south and weakened some during the day Thursday...but intensified again Thursday evening into Friday morning over Chautauqua County. The band also extended back to the southwest across Erie Pennsylvania where over 18" fell. The heaviest snow throughout this episode fell close to the lakeshore because the winds were fairly light and did not allow the heaviest snow to penetrate well inland.
East of Lake Ontario...a single intense band remained nearly stationary from Wednesday morning to Thursday night...except for drifting north to Watertown for a few hours Thursday midday. A narrow area along the Jefferson-Oswego County line received over three feet of snow...but only 5" fell at Watertown. Winds veered to northwest after the trof’s passage Thursday night and the heavy band shifted south across Oswego county with 6-12" falling by daybreak Friday. The activity weakened during Friday as winds turned more northerly and the inversion lowered...but not before 1 to 3 inches fell across the Rochester area by early afternoon. Light winds and increased stability in the lower atmosphere shut off the activity Christmas Eve.
Total snowfall ranged up to 20" off Lake Erie near Eden and Derby as well as near Sherman (note the close proximity to the shoreline)...but amounts dropped off sharply to the north across the Buffalo area.
East of Lake Ontario however...a whopping 54" fell at Sandy Creek and 42" at Montague, but amounts also dropped off sharply north and south! It was amazing to see such a tremendous variability in snowfall over so short a distance. In fact, the snowfall map posted on our site cannot accurately display the small scale of the event. This is not uncommon for lake effect snowstorms and it is one of the biggest reasons why we have such a difficult challenge trying to pinpoint where the snow will occur.
This timing and location of the heavy snowfall was forecasted well in advance...and movements of snowbands also were preceded by ample warnings and Nowcasts.
This was a long lasting storm which affected a sizeable population...but the bulk of the major metro areas of Buffalo and Rochester received little snowfall. Therefore...”Cherokee” rates as a 4-Flake Storm.
Some representative snowfall totals for the event are as follows:
LAKE ERIE LAKE ONTARIO
Derby/Evans....20 Sandy Creek..... 54
Perrysburg.......17 Montague......... 42
Stockton/Sherman 18 Mannsville....... 37
Dunkirk...........18 Lacona............. 31
Hamburg.........14-18 Adams.............. 25
Orchard Pk......10-12 N. Osceola........24.
Silver Creek......12 Hooker..............26
E. Aurora..........10 Redfield............40(N), 14 (S)
Bennington........9 Lowville........... 15
Lancaster..........6 Parish............... 12
Jamestown........6 Oswego............. 8-10
.Buffalo.............1 to 4 Fulton............... 6
Watertown.....5
Rochester...1 to 4.Flake Scale ****