Review of The Book AThe Coming Global Superstorm@

By: Victor J. Nouhan

Climate Focal Point

(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service. Also, this review is not intended to serve as a formal science journal article. Rather, it provides a basic outline of the book=s content and compares the authors theories to known science.)

Introduction

In anticipation of the movie AThe Day After Tomorrow@, I have read the book the movie was based on, entitled AThe Coming Global Superstorm@, by Art Bell and Whitely Strieber. Having a keen interest and some experience in paleoclimate, my first impression of the topics addressed in the book, that of sudden climate change brought about by a cataclysmic Aglobal@ storm is very intriguing, to say the least.

The authors first present current danger signals the climate has been showing over the past century. They cite the global warming trend exhibited during this time, especially over arctic regions, and what they believe to be a greater occurrence of unusual storms, especially over the last 10 to 15 years. Examples of the storms chosen by the authors were violent storms that struck the British Isles and the west coast of the U.S. during the last major El-Nino during 1997 and 1998. Hurricane Mitch and its ravaging effects on Central America was also mentioned.

Following this, the authors discuss evidence that perhaps indicated the existence of an advance civilization about 8000 to 9000 years ago that may have rivaled our current civilization in certain applications of technology, especially construction. The authors also cite fragments of the existence of this society kept by ancient civilizations (that we still have somewhat intact archeological records of), such as the ancient Egyptians and Greeks. Although the authors did not state within their book, I believe much of what they describe to this civilization is similar to the legend (or myth) of the great civilization of Atlantis. The authors also try to draw a parallel to the many flood stories/myths that abound with many civilizations, such as the Christian-Judeo Noah=s Ark story (including native American myths on this topic). The authors believe that this ancient Atlantian like civilization may have been annihilated by a global superstorm as they describe in their book.

Authors Theories

To help with the illustration on how such a storm may initiate, evolve, and end, the authors have interlaced chapters with their comments and views regarding the potential of a superstorm with a mock-up scenario of how such a storm would evolve in our day, beginning with the prologue.

The authors physical scenario regarding how such a storm would initiate begins with pre-conditions that they believe, we as a civilization, may be hastening. They cite continued greenhouse gases would continue to warm the atmosphere, especially over arctic regions. This would melt the sea level north polar ice cap and much of the margin glacier around Greenland and Antarctica, flooding the surrounding oceans with fresh water. This freshwater, which would reside on the ocean surface above the salt water, would be subject to rapid warming across all of the northern hemisphere arctic region and along the margins of Antarctic glacial ice sheet, further hastening the melting of additional glacial ice. At some point, this choking of melted fresh water into the north Atlantic Ocean basin would shut down the thermohaline circulation of the ocean basin, including the Gulf Stream.

At the same time, the authors contend that warming of the troposphere over arctic regions would greatly lower stratospheric temperatures over these regions (I suppose by raising the tropopause over arctic regions, although the authors did not state this directly). Signs that this would be well underway would be the sudden onset of much warmer temperatures in the arctic and sub-arctic areas (such as northern Canada and much of Siberia) across all seasons. As an example of this, the authors in their scenario of the development of such a superstorm in our current day, cite temperatures in the 80s and even 90 degrees F in the winter at places as far north as New York. Many locations in southern and central Canada would enjoy outbreaks of 50s and 60s, and far northern Canada would barely be able to support temperatures much below freezing, instead of well below zero usually found in the winter months there. This warm up period would be accompanied by unprecedented weather events (compared to our current historic record and weather/climate understanding). Severe weather, including violent tornadoes would supposedly occur well north in the northern hemisphere then they regularly occur now, such as the northern Canada, Scandinavia, Siberia and the British Isles. Also, the authors state that warming global sea surface temperatures would result in 1) more frequent/intense winter ocean storms and 2) more frequent tropical cyclones that would reach unprecedented intensity (with tropical cyclone seasons extending much further into the cool seasons then currently today).

When the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic Ocean (including the Gulf Stream) shuts down, the authors believe that the following chain of events would lead to the formation of a global superstorm. Although it was apparent that the authors had some knowledge of meteorology, they did not possess the detailed meteorological knowledge needed to describe the physical processes of each event or how one event causes or transitions to the next event. These events include:

1) The development of deep convective mesoscale systems over arctic regions, whose cloud tops would penetrate well into the stratosphere. Once these systems developed they would spread bitter cold stratospheric downdraft air over the regions they form. The strength of these downdrafts, according to the authors, would be much greater than observed in today=s mesoscale convective systems and would be capable of spreading a cold pool of air at 50 to 100 degrees below zero on the surface accompanied by 100 to 200 mph wind gusts. So cold in fact, any living being would become flash-freezed within minutes if caught outdoors.

2) These mesoscale storms would combine over the arctic across all of the northern (and southern) hemisphere, resulting in a broad cyclone capable of drawing more organized tropical inflow from already heated surface ocean water temperatures. At the same time, converging cold pools over the arctic regions would slowly begin to sag southward, forming an intense arctic front.

3) This hemispheric cyclone continues to organize and slowly move southward to a final position of 35 to 40 degrees north latitude in the northern hemisphere (no reference was made for the southern hemisphere), where it takes weeks for the system to dissipate. During this time, many high and eventually mid latitude cities north of the latitudinal low pressure ring would receive snow, heavy at times B enough to bury small buildings, while south of the low pressure ring, heavy rain, very severe local storms ravages locations south to the northern edge of the tropics. Winds with this system would be catastrophic in the order of 80 to 150 mph and locally up to 200 mph. On the north side of this system, winds of this magnitude combined with the unprecedented cold air mass would produce un-paralleled blizzard conditions.

4) The cyclone would slowly wind down over the course of weeks when heat and moisture in the low levels of the atmosphere and tropics are used up and the thermohaline circulation in the north Atlantic ocean starts up again (The authors did not comment on how this would commence, but in my opinion, perhaps the Gulf Stream would start again by intense low level west-southwest winds in the warm sector south of the cyclone over the north central Atlantic basin.

5) In the wake of the cyclone, much of civilization as we know it would be ruined. Many mid and high latitude towns and cities would be buried by snowfall and/or destroyed by relentless wind. In fact, part of the mock-up scenario by the authors describes how inhabitants of northern countries would be forced in a rapid exodus to more southern latitudes and the resultant breakdown of the laws of civilization as we know them now. In the aftermath, which could take decades to recover, there would be want of food and resources that could potentially reduce today=s civilization to a medieval feudal system, with a loss of many of today=s technologies since there would be no way to manufacture items and power needed to run them for quite some time. It is believed by the authors that this breakdown of society occurred so completely with the last global superstorm, that most remnant evidence of an Atlantian society was loss.

6) Depending on the time of year the superstorm struck, the authors claim that the left over snow pack from such an immense event could initiate a new permanent continental ice sheet. In fact, the authors have surmised that effects of the last superstorm only lasted 200 years (or so) after the storm, perhaps a result of the storm occurring in summer, which would limit the extent of snow pack compared to a storm of equal magnitude occurring in late winter/early spring (as in the authors mock-up scenario). Afterwards, the Gulf Stream slowly returned northward to its current position. The authors believe if there scenario came true in the late winter/early spring, there would be a greater chance of some of the residual snow pack lasting through the following summer to provide a basis to begin feedback factors, such as increased albedo over the northern portions of North America and Eurasia over following seasons (and years if favorable conditions persisted) and the sustenance and possible growth of such an ice sheet. Whether a superstorm, as described by the authors occurred in any season, it would eventually be followed by destructive flooding over large areas as significant portions of the massive snowfall melted.

Evidence cited by the authors regarding the warm seasonal timing of the last suspected super- storm event was the finding of frozen Wooly Monmouths over the last half century across locations of northern Canada and Siberia that contained partially digested plant materials. In fact, some of the plants found in the digestive tracks of these animals grow in sub-arctic latitudes further south than currently at the cites they were found, implying that a warmer climate then today did exist prior to the last theorized superstorm. The authors also claim since only partially digestive food was found within these Monmouths, that it constitutes evidence that these creatures were flash frozen by an extreme weather event rather than wondering on an ice sheet where no plant foods would grow), falling through a crevice, and becoming trapped.

The Authors Theories Versus Known Science

Some time ago, when I was attending graduate school, I wrote a term paper for a climate diagnostics course discussing the different modes of atmospheric circulation between glacial periods and non-glacial periods (called interglacial periods by paleontologists - which, over the last 3 to 5 million years, last much shorter than periods where there is at least some near sea level continental ice present over North America and Eurasia). During non-glacial periods, most of the control of weather over the northern hemisphere is exhibited by tropical-mid latitude interactions that occur in the Pacific Ocean. To state it another way, cycles of EL-Nino and La-Nina and the role they have on the production of thunderstorms along the equatorial Pacific and the subsequent strength of the sub tropical jet stream, which interacts with the polar jet stream of the mid latitude north Pacific, has the most influence of all other possible global influences on the weather and climate on the northern hemisphere, and is considered the center of action of weather changes in today=s weather world. But this was not the case during major continental glacier periods, the last which was in maximum swing about 18,000 to 20,000 thousand years before present. During these times, the center of action of weather (and climate) change was the north Atlantic Ocean east of Cape Hatteras North Carolina. In fact, computer models that simulate ice age atmospheric circulation surmise that the polar jet averaged 50 to 75 percent greater over the mid latitudes of the north Atlantic during maximum extent of ice ages than they do today over mid latitude western Pacific where the strongest polar jets in the northern hemisphere usually reside.

Paleoclimatologists are somewhat divergent in how fast the non-glacial mode changes to the glacial mode of circulation (and vice-versa). For instance, prior to reading this book, I was familiar with a period called the Younger-Dryas, which occurred about 12,500 years before present. Based on the paleo evidence (such as ocean/lake sediment samples, ice cores of currently existing Greenland, Antarctic, and mountain glaciers, oxygen and carbon isotope dating, and etc) collected by paleontologists, paleoclimatologists surmise that after a period of very rapid melting of the last great continental ice sheet in the which the atmospheric circulation was in non-glacial mode, the Gulf Stream suddenly became displaced southward back into the mid-latitudes of the north Atlantic Ocean, triggering the glacier mode of atmospheric circulation for about 500 years. Paleoclimatologists believe the reason for this sudden change was that there was such a great surge of cold melt water pouring out of all the rivers emptying out of eastern North America and Western Europe, literally overwhelming the Gulf Stream that had recently rebound over the previous 6000 years to a track similar to today in the far north Atlantic. The amount of meltwater that resulted in the change in track of the Gulf Stream (and the resultant atmospheric circulation mode change) is projected to be close, if not more, than is currently available in today=s total ice pack (including all of Antarctica). There is some agreement between scientists that when the switch occurred from non-glacial to glacial mode of atmospheric circulation, it was lightning speed in geologic time (often measured in millions of years), in the order of 10 to 50 years according to some paleo evidence, which indicated a drop in average annual temperature of 10 degrees F across much of mid-latitude North America and Eurasia. Eventually, the cold fresh water was absorbed by the oceans over the course of 500 years and the Gulf Stream returned to the far North Atlantic and climate again rebounded and underwent further rapid warming from 11,500 to 12,000 years before present.

Unfortunately, I am not as familiar with the paleoclimate during the period of time the authors claim the last superstorm occurred. However, I am familiar with two periods since 8000 years before present that the climate was warmer than today, that did not end cataclysmically. The first, which occurred about 4500 to 6000 years before present, is called the Great Climatic Optimum, which averaged 2 to 3 degrees F warmer than today, and according to archeologists, helped man to establish an agrarian society in which some of the first farming commerce communities became our first cities of historical record. The second shorter, but more recent period which occurred 800 to 1200 years before present is called the Little Climatic Optimum, averaged 1 to 2 degrees F warmer than today, and favored the Vikings in the settlement of southern Greenland. We know much about this period based on records and evidence left behind by the Vikings on Greenland. When the Vikings first settled the shores of southern Greenland about a thousand years ago, there were forests of stunted evergreens (no trees are able to sustain themselves in southern Greenland at this time). The settlement lasted about 200 years until the warming trend reversed, and the climate became colder and more harsh. We know this by the depth the Vikings were able to bury their dead which became shallower and shallower as the permafrost thickened over their 200 year settlement. Eventually, the Viking Greenland settlement was abandoned. The Little Climatic Optimum ended when conditions gradually became stormier and cooler, culminating in the period paleoclimatologists refer to the Little Ice Age (about 150 to 500 years before present).

Conclusion

As a scientist, I can only render a sound conclusion based on the science and proof of evidence I know. One problem in substantiating the theories claimed by the authors is that it is very difficult to identify paleo evidence in such a very short time periods of years when geologic eveidence exists in very thin layers of the Earth=s crust in time periods of hundreds of thousands or millions of years. Furthermore, there is less evidence to indicate the potential of rapid as a climate change that occurred with the Younger-Dryas period, when going from a completely non-glacial period like today back into an ice change (there was still some remnant ice sheets in northern Canada and Eurasia just prior to the Younger Dryas period).

Three earth orbital factors influence the ability of continental glaciers to grow. The first, called precession, which determines the time of year when the earth is farthest (closest) to the sun, takes about 23,000 years to complete one cycle. The second, called obliquity, relates to a slight change in the Earth=s tilt (in other words slightly changes the latitude of the tropic of cancer, the northernmost position in the northern hemisphere where the sun shines directly over land on the first day of summer), takes about 40,000 years to complete one cycle. The third, called eccentricity, determines how much the Earth=s orbit is shaped by an ellipse and takes nearly 100,000 years to go through a complete cycle. In addition, there are wild card factors such as volcanism that occasionally plays a role in continental glaciation.

Paleoclimatologists now believe that of the three orbital factors, eccentricity has the greatest importance in initiating major ice ages. Ideal conditions for ice ages occur when the Earth is farthest from the sun during the summer with the tropic of cancer less than 23.0 degrees latitude (currently at 23.5 degrees and can go as low as 22.5 degrees latitude) and when the earth is in the portion of the 100,000 year cycle with the greatest elliptical orbit. This portion of the eccentricity cycle is not slated for another 40,000 years, which not coincidentally, most paleoclimatologists suggest the next opportunity for the next major ice age (prior major ice ages to the last great ice age which began about 80,000 years before present have roughly occurred over 100,000 year cycles at least back to one million years before present).

Being an operational meteorologist at the National Weather Service for some time now, I have become very familiar with rating the probability of precipitation events with the following qualitative term categories and associated percentages: 1) no chance (0%), 2) slight chance (10 to 20 percent), 3) chance (30 to 50 percent), 4) likely (60 to 70 percent), and 5) categorical (80 to 100 percent). Of these five categories, I would rate the probability of a superstorm ever occurring in the future between zero and slight chance. Why give it any chance at all you might ask? Three reasons.

The first is that I consider the fact that largely intact Wooly Monmouths have been found frozen with partially digested plant content of a type currently not currently native to arctic regions, as disturbing and somewhat of a paradox that cannot be fully explained today. Also Wooly Monmouths and many other of the giant mammals that survived through the Pleistocene epoch died off rapidly around the time the authors believed the last superstorm occurred. Many believe these large mammals were already being hunted to extinction by man when he began migrating from Asia across the Russian-Alaskan land bridge that was exposed after the last glacial maximum some 18,000 years ago, but the remnants of these large mammals disappeared nearly completely about 8,000 to 10, 000 years before present.

The second reason is that there are many stories and myths about the existence of a greatYlost civilization and flood stories passed down by the ancestors of many peoples in North America and Eurasia from antiquities. Given the varied sources of these stories, can there be some truth of some past weather/climatic cataclysmic event near the time the authors contend the last superstorm occurred, or did other wildcard factors result in these possible events?

The third reason I stated earlier in the conclusion of this review, is that evidence of paleoclimatic events spanning such a small slice of geologic history will likely never be seen in the Earth=s crust, being masked by epochs, periods, and eras spanning many thousands and even millions of years.

Lastly, the authors have an interesting solution to end the threat of superstorms and slipping back to an ice age. They recommend removing the land bridge that connects North America with South America. Although they do not indicate how much of Central America must be removed in order to accommodate their solution, the authors point out that the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic would not be subject to the periodic failure that has occurred over the past five million years since the central America land bridge has been present. They believe that the lack of direct exchange of tropical waters between the Atlantic and Pacific stabilized the Atlantic ocean portion of the thermohaline circulation, especially the warm water conveyor belt that makes up today=s Gulf Stream. There may be some truth to this, since major continental ice ages did not occur for many millions of years prior the formation of this land bridge. But good luck trying to convince the indigenous populations of Panama and Costa Rica to leave their countries so we can mine their countries below sea level to re-connect the oceans together again, never mind the technology, logistics, and expense required to undertake such a project. At least the authors did admit it would be a project that would take a very lengthy time to complete. This concludes this review.