FXUS61 KILN 241812
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
112 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHD OF SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH
LIFTS INTO THE MID MS VLY BY EVENING. LOW CLDS AND DRIZZLE ARE
BEING OBSERVED AHD OF WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THIS LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE 
FA. HAVE LOWERED TODAY/S HIGH TEMPS AND ADDED DRIZZLE TO FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET TONIGHT. MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE WENT WITH
A BLEND. SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH TUESDAY EVENING AND
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. GREATEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FORCING. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH COLDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAIN
FEATURES WITH ONLY SLIGHT VARIANCE IN DEGREE OF STRENGTH OF
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A COLD RAIN ON
THANKSGIVING HOWEVER RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE FA. WITH UPPER LOW IN
THE AREA AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARD
TIME WARMING ON FRIDAY AND WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY TRANSITION
BACK TO RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND LOCATIONS
STILL RECEIVING PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE FA. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHD OF SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS WHICH
LIFTS INTO THE MID MS VLY BY EVENING. LOW CLDS AND DRIZZLE ARE
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THAT TAFS AHD OF WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT AS THIS LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTN. HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED CIGS INTO MVFR CAT
LATER THIS AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING. VFR POSSIBLE POSSIBLE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS COME DOWN AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT AHD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HAVE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS LATE TNGT INTO EARLY WED WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON WED. 

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY...AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...AR