FXUS61 KILN 060219 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1019 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WARM DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SATELLITE SHOWING SOME LINGERING HIGH SC/LOW AC IN W CNTL OH OVER TO CNTRL OH. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MEANWHILE THE SC DECK THAT AFFECT THE S FOR MUICH OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO SLIDE S...AND SHOULD TOTALLY EXIT THE SRN KY COUNTIES SHORTLY. THEREFORE WETN MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL LOCATIONS TONIGHT. LEFT THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE S...AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WAS TRAPPED TODAY...SHOULD FORM SOME FOG. MIN TEMPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW....SO NO CHANGES THERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MODEL CONSENSUS TRANSITIONING UPR LO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THRU THE PERIOD WITH FCST AREA REMAINING IN NW FLO ALOFT. SVRL WEAK S/WVS AND SFC BNDRYS/TROFS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPR LO AND ACRS THE ERN GRT LKS MON AND MON NGT. REGION APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED FAR ENUF AWAY FROM THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES TO REMAIN DRY THRU THE PERIOD AS NO APPRECIABLE MID LVL FORCING IS AVAILABLE THIS FAR SOUTH AND WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDCG MID LVL CAP WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACRS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. WEAK FORCING BENEATH THE CAP WILL BE ENUF TO GENERATE SOME CU DVLPMNT MON AFTN...BUT STILL EXPECTING SUNNIEST DAY FOR THE FCST AREA AS A WHOLE SINCE LAST MONDAY. 12Z NAM/GFS/GEM/SREF ALL DVLPG A WARM FRONT FROM THE UPR MISSISSIPPI VLY SOUTHEAST INTO NRN INDIANA/OHIO MON NIGHT AHEAD OF SFC LO PRES EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. BULK OF THE FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THRU DAYBREAK TUES WITH POSSIBILITY OF DVLPG CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALONG WARM FRONT. MID/HI LVL CLOUDS FROM ANY DVLPG CONVECTION MAY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TUES MRNG IN NW FLO ALOFT PATTERN. TEMPS...HAVE GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS GUID FOR HIGHS MON BY A FEW DEG. 850MB TEMPS AT 14-15C UNDER MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE L80S. NEAR MOS GUID FOR LOWS MON NIGHT AS TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN FALL INTO THE U50S/L60S ACRS THE FCST AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN ON A ECMWF/HPC BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MODELS TRY TO BUILD A SFC HIGH INTO THE REGION. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT... HOWEVER...IS THE NWLY FLOW PATTERN...WHICH IS NOTORIOUS FOR GENERATING SOME CONVECTION AT TIMES. AT THIS JUNCTURE...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT/POSITION OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AND HAVE THUS OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO BUILD A UPR LVL RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT BONA FIDE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION NOW LOOKS TO BE DELAYED...MOVING SLOWLY ACRS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS NOW EVEN HINTING AT SLOWING THIS FRONT DOWN EVEN MORE. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPS SHOULD COOL A LITTLE DUE TO EVENTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLEARING LINE OF LOWER STRATUS IS ALREADY APPROACHING SOUTHERN TAF SITES. A FEW CU WITH SOME HIGHER WISPY AS WILL BE FOUND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE UNTIL NIGHT FALLS. ANY CU SHOULD BE GONE BY 0Z THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL SWITCH NORTHEAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT. MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KCVG AND KLUK WITH OCCASIONAL LOWER IFR VALUES INTERSPERSED TONIGHT. SOME FAIR WX CU MAY OCCUR TOMORROW BUT BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AND SHALLOW. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RYAN NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...RYAN LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...FRANKS