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FGUS61 KRHA 051820
ESPRHA

..............BI-WEEKLY WATER RESOURCES SUMMARY..................

.....FOR THE SUSQUEHANNA, DELAWARE, AND POTOMAC RIVER BASINS.....

MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA     MON MAY 5 2003

****************************************************************************
ATTENTION ALL USERS:  THE NWS MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
(MARFC) IS CONSIDERING DISCONTINUING THIS PRODUCT.  MORE COMPLETE
EXTENDED-RANGE WATER RESOURCES INFORMATION CONTINUES TO BE REGULARLY
ADDED TO OUR HOME PAGE (www.erh.noaa.gov/er/marfc - UNDER 'FORECAST
PRODUCTS' CLICK ON 'AHPS.').  AS A NOAA/NWS CUSTOMER, IF YOU WOULD
LIKE TO HAVE INPUT INTO THIS DECISION, PLEASE EMAIL YOUR COMMENTS TO
edwin.pryor@noaa.gov OR scott.kroczynski@noaa.gov BY MAY 21, 2003.
THANK YOU.
****************************************************************************

FORECAST 30 DAY MEAN FLOW IN CUBIC FEET PER SECOND FOR THE
PERIOD MAY 1 TO MAY 31, 2003:

STATION AND STREAM      1        2        3        4        5        6

TRENTON, N.J.
DELAWARE RIVER        11100    16200     7200    14200    12700    12000     

PHILADELPHIA, PA.
SCHUYLKILL RIVER       2500     3600     1600     3200     2700     2300     

HARRISBURG, PA.
SUSQUEHANNA RIVER     48600    66100    18200    45000    40800    32000     

......NO RELEASES INCLUDED IN TRENTON FLOW OUTLOOK.....
1 BASED ON NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT 30 DAYS
2 REASONABLE MAX IF PRECIPITATION IN UPPER 10 PERCENT OF RECORD
3 REASONABLE MIN IF PRECIPITATION IN LOWER 10 PERCENT OF RECORD
4 AVERAGE FLOW FOR THIS PERIOD
5 MEDIAN FLOW FOR THIS PERIOD
6 FLOW AT 7 AM MAY 1, 2003

PRECIPITATION AT READING, PA FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL WAS 2.41 INCHES.

AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THE DELAWARE RIVER BASIN ABOVE TRENTON, NJ 
FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL WAS 2.54 INCHES.  NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 4.00 INCHES.

AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER BASIN ABOVE
HARRISBURG, PA FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL WAS 2.79 INCHES.
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 3.50 INCHES.

RESERVOIR STORAGE IN THE UPPER DELAWARE BASIN FROM USGS
RIVER MASTER OFFICE AS OF APRIL 30, 2003:   

RESERVOIR          ELEV FT.    CONTENTS MG    PERCENT X
PEPACTON           1280.31       140764          100
CANNONSVILLE       1151.38        97927          102
NEVERSINK          1437.11        33528           96
WALLENPAUPACK      1185.20        26497           75
                                        (X IS USEABLE STORAGE)

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD FROM
MAY 1 TO MAY 31, 2003:
                    
                       PRECIPITATION   TEMPERATURE
SUSQUEHANNA BASIN       NEAR NORMAL    NEAR NORMAL
DELAWARE BASIN          NEAR NORMAL    NEAR NORMAL
POTOMAC BASIN           NEAR NORMAL    NEAR NORMAL

THE AVERAGE NATURAL DAILY FLOW...WHICH DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
WATER SUPPLY DIVERSIONS OR WATER SUPPLY RELEASES FROM UPSTREAM
RESERVOIRS...FOR THE LOWER POTOMAC AT LITTLE FALLS FOR THE NEXT 30
DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE 11.94 BILLION GALLONS.  THE REASONABLE MAX
OUTLOOK IS 22.16 BILLION GALLONS AND THE REASONABLE MIN OUTLOOK IS
6.13 BILLION GALLONS.

PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL AVERAGED 3.63 INCHES IN THE
POTOMAC BASIN AND 4.16 INCHES IN THE JAMES.  NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE MONTH OF APRIL IS 3.20 INCHES IN THE POTOMAC BASIN AND 3.30 INCHES
IN THE JAMES.

**************************************************************************
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS THIS PRODUCT HAS INCLUDED TABLES
SUMMARIZING 30-DAY INFLOW FORECASTS FOR EIGHT RESERVOIRS IN THE MARFC
AREA.  NOW, THESE PROBABILISTIC INFLOW FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN
GRAPHICAL FORMAT AS PART OF THE NWS'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE (AHPS) PROGRAM AND ARE LOCATED ON THE AHPS WEB SITE ACCESSED
VIA THE MARFC HOMEPAGE: www.erh.noaa.gov/er/marfc.  UNDER 'FORECAST
PRODUCTS' CLICK ON 'AHPS.'  IF YOU HAVE PROBLEMS ACCESSING THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS PLEASE CONTACT NED PRYOR AT
edwin.pryor@noaa.gov.
**************************************************************************

SUMMARY....

APRIL 2003 PRECIPITATION WAS NORMAL-BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SERVED BY THE NWS MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER
FORECAST CENTER (MARFC).  MEANWHILE, NORMAL-ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FELL ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARFC REGION.  TOTAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MARFC REGION WAS GENERALLY IN THE 1.5-6.0
INCH RANGE.  WETTEST AREAS WERE ACROSS WESTERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VA AND ACROSS THE LOWER DELMARVA PENINSULA.  DRIEST AREAS WERE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NY, EASTERN PA AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN NJ.

NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST WITHIN THE MARFC SERVICE AREA,
AND NO WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FOUR
MONTHS.

GENERALLY TYPICAL MID-SPRING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO ACROSS MOST OF THE MARFC SERVICE AREA.

THE NEXT SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE IN MID MAY.

$$
SK

$$


 


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