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Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center

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Water Resources Outlook - Northern MARFC Area
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Map of the Northern Water Resources Outlook Region

June 1, 2015 Despite some areas of heavy rain to end the month, May still ended quite dry for many parts of the northern portion of the MARFC service area. Much of southern New York and the northern half of Pennsylvania were near average, plus or minus up to an inch or so of rain. For New Jersey, the southern half of Pennsylvania, and even much or northeastern Pennsylvania, rainfall was 1 to as much as 3 inches below normal. May was very warm ending as a top 10 for warmest with some locations even experiencing the warmest May on record. Temperatures were 5 1/2 to 7 1/2 degrees above normal. Over the past 90 days, precipitation has been about normal plus or minus an inch or two in much of southern New York and Pennsylvania. Parts of south-central and eastern Pennsylvania, the Catskill Region of New York, and most of New Jersey are running 2 to 4 inches below average.

Current (June 1) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are experiencing higher levels due to recent rainfall and are generally near or above normal in southern New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. These levels are likely to drop at least back to normal once the effect of the recent rain passes through the basin. Groundwater levels are below or much below normal as well though some are still within the normal range in southern New York and southern New Jersey.

As a result of this recent dryness, the May 28 US Drought Monitor shows that several counties in eastern Pennsylvania, the northern third of New Jersey, and southern-most New York are in "Moderate Drought." This means that some damage to crops and pastures could occur; streams, reservoirs, or wells are low; some water shortages are developing or are imminent; and voluntary water-use restrictions may be requested. The outlook for water resources and water supplies is good to fair across southern New York and northern Pennsylvania. The outlook is fair to poor for southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Though recent rain has helped, overall, rainfall frequency and amounts have decreased considerably over the past 30 to 60 days creating noticeable deficits. Areas further north have had more rainfall allowing conditions to remain fairly wet, at least for now. This lack of rainfall is having an effect on streamflows, topsoil and groundwater. Further effects may appear as we move further into the warm season and if rainfall remains below normal. Longer term precipitation deficits are also growing during this near term lack of rainfall. The outlook for rainfall is promising and may continue to help ease some of the dry conditions. However, further degrading of this outlook is still possible in the event that this rainfall does not materialize.


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Page last modified: October 29, 2014 10:58 PM
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