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Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center

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Water Resources Outlook - Northern MARFC Area
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Map of the Northern Water Resources Outlook Region

September 11, 2014 - Rainfall in August was very heavy for some, but very light for others. On the wet side, much of central and south-central Pennsylvania was 1 to 2 inches above normal in August while the southern half of New Jersey was 2 to 4 1/2 inches above normal for rainfall. On the dry side, the northern half of New Jersey, extreme eastern Pennsylvania, and the Catskill Region of New York were 1 to 3 inches below average. August temperatures were quite cool running 1 to 3 1/2 degrees below normal. As for September, generally only about 1/2 inch of rain has fallen so far but temperatures are running 4 to 6 degrees above normal. Over the past 90 days, rainfall for much of the northern portion of the MARFC service area has been running about average plus or minus an inch or two. There has been a dry area in parts of northeast and southeast Pennsylvania along with the northern half of New Jersey where rainfall has been 2 to 4 inches below average. Any unusual wet areas are small in areal coverage.

Current (September 11) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are running near or above normal for most areas. But, some levels are running below normal in the Catskill Region of New York, in northeastern Pennsylvania, and in the northern half of New Jersey. Groundwater levels are near or above normal.

The weather outlook for the next couple of weeks calls for near or below normal rainfall along with below normal temperatures. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for September as well as the day outlook for September through November calls for near average precipitation and above average temperatures.

We are at the peak of hurricane season, which has been fairly quiet to date. Tropical weather systems can bring flooding rains to the Mid-Atlantic Region. But for now, no tropical system is threatening the Mid-Atlantic Region.

The outlook for water resources and water supplies is good or very good across most of southern New York, most of Pennsylvania, and the southern half of New Jersey. In the Catskill Region of New York, northeast Pennsylvania, and the northern half of New Jersey, water resources and supplies have degraded to fair. This is due to an increasingly persistent trend of below average rainfall in this area. The rainfall expectations (likely to be below average for most areas) for the coming weeks suggest that little or no improvement can be expected in the near term. If anything, a further degradation is possible.


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U.S. Geological Survey Real Time Data

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