September 26, 2014 - September has been quite dry to date with only
3/4 to 1 1/2 inches of rainfall so far in most areas. This is largely
1 1/2 to 3 inches below average. The exception is the southern half
of New Jersey where amounts have been about average plus or minus an
inch or so. Temperatures are running near normal, plus or minus a
degree or so. Over the past 90 days, rainfall for much of southern
New York and Pennsylvania has been running about average plus or minus
an inch or two. The Catskill Region of New York, eastern
Pennsylvania, and the northern half of New Jersey have been 3 to over
5 inches below average. Much of the southern half of New Jersey has
been running 2 to over 5 inches above normal.
Current (September 26) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological
Survey shows that streamflows are running near or below normal for
most areas. But, some levels are running above normal in southern New
Jersey, mainly due to recent rainfall. Groundwater levels are below
normal in northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskill Region of New York.
Elsewhere, groundwater levels are near or above normal.
The weather outlook for the next couple of weeks calls for below
normal rainfall for most of the period, though rainfall may return to
near normal levels late in the outlook. Temperatures are expected to
be above normal. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook
for October as well as the 90 day outlook for October through December
(the remainder of calendar year 2014) calls for near average
precipitation and above average temperatures.
Hurricane season continues to be fairly quiet with no tropical
system currently threatening the Mid-Atlantic Region.
Continued dry weather has led to the outlook for water resources
and water supplies to be downgraded to good across most of southern
New York, most of Pennsylvania, and the southern half of New Jersey.
In the Catskill Region of New York, northeast Pennsylvania, and the
northern half of New Jersey, water resources and supplies remain fair.
Rainfall expectations (likely to be below average for most areas) for
the coming weeks suggest that little or no improvement can be expected
in the near term. If anything, a further degradation is possible.
However, as we get deeper into Autumn with cooler temperatures and a
weakening sun, further degradation will be slow to occur.