September 11, 2014 - Rainfall in August was very heavy for some,
but very light for others. On the wet side, much of central and
south-central Pennsylvania was 1 to 2 inches above normal in August
while the southern half of New Jersey was 2 to 4 1/2 inches above
normal for rainfall. On the dry side, the northern half of New
Jersey, extreme eastern Pennsylvania, and the Catskill Region of New
York were 1 to 3 inches below average. August temperatures were quite
cool running 1 to 3 1/2 degrees below normal. As for September,
generally only about 1/2 inch of rain has fallen so far but
temperatures are running 4 to 6 degrees above normal. Over the past
90 days, rainfall for much of the northern portion of the MARFC
service area has been running about average plus or minus an inch or
two. There has been a dry area in parts of northeast and southeast
Pennsylvania along with the northern half of New Jersey where rainfall
has been 2 to 4 inches below average. Any unusual wet areas are small
in areal coverage.
Current (September 11) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological
Survey shows that streamflows are running near or above normal for
most areas. But, some levels are running below normal in the Catskill
Region of New York, in northeastern Pennsylvania, and in the northern
half of New Jersey. Groundwater levels are near or above normal.
The weather outlook for the next couple of weeks calls for near or
below normal rainfall along with below normal temperatures. The NWS
Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for September as well as
the day outlook for September through November calls for near average
precipitation and above average temperatures.
We are at the peak of hurricane season, which has been fairly quiet
to date. Tropical weather systems can bring flooding rains to the
Mid-Atlantic Region. But for now, no tropical system is threatening
the Mid-Atlantic Region.
The outlook for water resources and water supplies is good or very
good across most of southern New York, most of Pennsylvania, and the
southern half of New Jersey. In the Catskill Region of New York,
northeast Pennsylvania, and the northern half of New Jersey, water
resources and supplies have degraded to fair. This is due to an
increasingly persistent trend of below average rainfall in this area.
The rainfall expectations (likely to be below average for most areas)
for the coming weeks suggest that little or no improvement can be
expected in the near term. If anything, a further degradation is