May 24, 2013 - Rainfall has been scattered over the northern part
of the MARFC service area so far in May. Most areas have been within
1/2 inch or so of normal, though lesser amounts have fallen in
portions of south-central New York as well as northern-most and
east-central Pennsylvania. Rain in northern New Jersey has been more
abundant with some areas running 1 to 2 1/2 inches above normal.
Precipitation over the past 90 days is mostly 1 to 3 inches below
Current (May 24) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey
shows that streamflows are generally near or above normal in
south-central New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. Groundwater
levels are, on average, near or above normal except for northeast
Pennsylvania. Here, groundwater levels are below normal.
The weather outlook through the first week of June calls for near
or below normal rainfall. Temperatures are expected to be below
normal for Memorial Day weekend but then warm to above or even much
above normal. The Climate Prediction Center's 30 day outlook for June
calls for near average precipitation and temperatures. The 90 day
summer outlook for June through August calls for near average
precipitation and above average temperatures.
The outlook for water resources is fair in south-central New York,
northeast Pennsylvania, and northern New Jersey (despite the most
recent rainfall here). The outlook is good elsewhere. Significant
rainfall occurs from time to time leading to improvement in water
resources. But, a consistently near or above average rainfall pattern
has yet to firmly establish itself. So, periods of dry weather over
the past 90 days means that longer term deficits still exist. With
the typical increase in water usage during summer, below normal
rainfall could stress water resources. This does not, for now, appear
to be the case but will be monitored.
In summary, the northern portion of the MARFC service area has
sufficient water resources and water supplies. These water resources
and supplies are likely to maintain current levels or begin their
typical slow long term summer decrease in the coming weeks, but remain
sufficient, with no water shortages expected in the next several
weeks. Near or below normal rainfall in the short term is expected to
have little affect on water resources and supplies unless this were to
continue into a longer term trend.