NOVEMBER 24, 2009 - November has been quite dry so far with precipitation averaging about half of what is typically expected which is well below average for most spots. In the longer term, the 60 and 90 day precipitation departures indicate that most of southern New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey have had near average precipitation plus or minus 10 to 20 percent. There have been scattered wetter areas, mainly in central and southeast Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey, where precipitation has been as much as 125 percent of average. For the year, precipitation has been near average plus or minus 10 or 20 percent.

Current streamflow (November 24) across the northern half of the MARFC region from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow data indicates that Pennsylvania, southern New York and New Jersey have streamflow values that are near normal. Ground water levels as provided by the U.S. Geological Survey for November 23 also show that monitoring wells are at generally normal levels. Some locations, especially southeast Pennsylvania and in New Jersey, are showing above normal groundwater levels. As long term rainfall along with recent streamflow and groundwater indicate, abundant water can be found in the waterways of the northern portion of the MARFC service area. Since vegetation is dormant for the season, the rain that does fall will only help to maintain these levels of water availability.

Short term weather patterns indicate that near average, or even slightly above average, precipitation is expected over the next several days. Beyond this a wetter pattern of above average precipitation is expected from late November into the first week or so of December. The longer term 30 and 90 day outlooks issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center for December (30 day outlook), as well as the period spanning December 2009 through February 2010 (90 day outlook), indicate that precipitation and temperatures are both expected to average about normal for the northern half of the MARFC region. As always, there could be brief wet or dry periods. But, the overall pattern does not indicate long periods of wet or dry weather. Also, as the next several weeks progress and as we move into December, the frequency of snowfall will increase. This will add a new perspective to how precipitation will affect water supply.

So in summary, a dry November (at least through November 24) is expected to become wetter as the month winds down. Plentiful water resources exist, no drought conditions exist, and no water shortages are currently anticipated for at least the next several months. Plentiful water resources are expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

Please send information about any "dead links" or any other comments specific to the WRO to William.Marosi@noaa.gov.